WW11 - Civilization

[MJW (ya that one)]

I just barely escaped (in-game) death ... what do you expect?

The only people who vote at the last second are shy people or a wolf trying to screw over the village or someone trying to get a wolf kill off at any price. You are not shy because you are number one in post count. You are not trying to kill a wolf at any price because you would have been more angry when Jkaen was a villager. So I would guess you are a wolf. I might be wrong though.

[Tasunke]

Yep, quite wrong.

In fact I became a bit ... is the term 'gunshy'? As I was hoping people would start to vote Lewwyn (and initially Mardoc), however I guess it just didn't stick.

Therefore, with myself on the chopping block (being highly promoted by Lewwyn), I discovered that the more I talked, the more likely I was to die.

My only real chance of making it through Day 2 was if Jkaen turned out to be a wolf, although really at the time my primary concern was just making it through day 1.

So first there was the glee that came from not dying, and then came the resignation that, since Jkaen was a villager, I will be the next to die. So I'm just gonna try and run this baby dry all the way up to the chopping block (aka have fun while I'm still alive).

Although I suppose its possible I won't live through the night ... but honestly I doubt that will happen, as whomever the wolves are, they'd rather lynch me during the day while killing a real threat at night. So likely not me, as I am seeming to have the tendency of convincing people the exact opposite of what I am trying to convince.

I'll still try to keep myself a bit more sane though ... I mean it can get pretty crazy not havign a watch that counts the seconds, and trying to wait until the minute is almost over before voting, can do things to ya. (reminds me of some cool simul turn games in the past ... only then you had the seconds displayed for ya )

So while I admit I was a bit caught up in the moment, I'll keep my daytime posts a bit more sane, and have some real fun before my deathbed

[Jkaen]

Your mothers were hamsters and your fathers smelt of elderberries

[novice]

I checked out at about 2130 GMT last night. Fell asleep, to be precise.

I think I'll save my commentary on the final hours until after the night kill.

[Rowain]

First: I wonder how people do it to post alot via phone. My vote for scooter nearly took 30 min before I managed it. The MJW went faster but I would really hate to relly on Phone-posting for this game.

To answer:

x-posted with Rowain.

What am I missing Rowain, why Scooter?

At the time it was 4-4-4 with scooter not having voted for one of the leaders. I wanted to make sure that he is one of the top-candidates.

When MJW made the announcement thath e would vote Gaspar till the end and that again for pure Meta-reasoning (btw uberfish I hope you mete out a punishment for this) I tried to get him removed from game via lynch. Thats why I switched to MJW.

Later it was clear that a) there wont happen a last minute bw vs MJW nor any chance to bring scooter back to top so i left it where it was.

JKaen sorry to see you dead since you were a villager but please don't do this ' maybe I'm a seer maybe not but a normal villager would post differntly' ever again.

[Catwalk]

I'm still puzzled at how much distraction occurred the last 30 minutes before lynching. Suspects were named that had zero chance of accumulating enough votes while we still had a weak 3-way tie among the top suspects. I have a hard time seeing those discussions as pro-village. If we later identify Tasunke or scooter as wolf, I think this suspicion should be revisited (don't want to draw connections between multiple unidentified wolves, made that mistake too often before). I was also suspicious of Rowain for voting MJW without any chance of him hanging, but it's more understandable if he was posting via phone and had a hard time keeping up.

[Tasunke]

In case I do manage to die tonight, by either wolf or vig (and I guess I wouldn't mind it if a vig kills me), I think I should discuss my thoughts as to current wolf potentials.

Currently (in no particular order) I think the Wolves of this game are

Selrahc, Lewwyn, MJW, and Mardoc

I think Lewwyn and Mardoc are two wolves that are working closely together ...

while the MJW is the double bluff wolf

and Selrahc is the wolf hiding in the background.


I suppose its possible that I am wrong about one of these players, and that Slowcheetah is instead a wolf and I dunno, maybe Mardoc or Selrahc isn't ...

although if Mardoc isn't a wolf I suppose its less likely that Lewwyn is a wolf, yet Lewwyn seems very wolfish imho.

If I had to place two "certainty" bets, I think it would be Lewwyn and MJW ...

after that, assuming the Mardoc mishap is coincidence, then perhaps the other two would be Slowcheetah and Selrahc.

Slowcheetah seems to have at least 50% wolf probability for me ... although that could just be the way he plays.

So I think my two wolf sets (as guesses) will be ...

MJW, Selrahc, Mardoc, Lewwyn

and

MJW, Selrahc, Slowcheetah, Lewwyn

Even if MJW and Lewwyn aren't wolves, (rather, especially if they aren't wolves) Selrahc and Slowcheetah are still reading wolfish.

Personally I think scooter is innocent, because Scooter's actions up until this point have been only villagerish (unless one would assume that I am a wolf, then I could see how he looks suspicious)

Selrahc has repeatedly stated that regardless of alignment, he doesn't condone killing newbie players, therefore I think his defense of me has no impact on whether or not he is a wolf. Therefore I look only at the other posts, and he has only a slight (but still suspicious) wolfish vibe imho.

MJW ... oh MJW. I was so convinced you were a villager for at least the first half of day 1. You even got me to move my vote off of Lewwyn ... albiet that was more my OWN fault for trusting you.

It seems clear now that MJW is focused only on splitting the vote away from true wolves (aka Lewwyn), and he was likely the Wolf half of the feud ... I mean from a meta perspective there was probably about a 50% chance that the fuedsters would be on opposite sides of the allegiance perspective. And if MJW is a wolf, and he has Night-Kill immunity,

I'm sorry Gaspar, but I don't think Scooter is guilty, and I'd rather a non-poster like Jkaen hang than my own neck ... at least on Day 1 when no one knows what is going on. I mean yes, giving MJW night kill immunity (if only a one time thing), was a very bad thing to do ... but I really wanted to escape from the Purgatory of Day 1. I likely would have never voted on Jkaen if my head was not on the chopping block. I definitely would not have voted Scooter though, because he is both possibly innocent and posts a decent amount.

So I guess what I am trying to say is that Gaspar is right that we should not have allowed MJW to get his 'power' activated, yet I was not ready to sacrifice myself to do it. I'd sacrifice myself to see Lewwyn hung, but not to simply 'deprive' a potential wolf of a potentially useful power. I mean, on the off chance that MJW was village, I'd be signing my own death warrant for no reason ... I mean really.

I would have definitely played the latter half of day 1 differently if my head wasn't up on the chopping block. I'd have campaigned more strongly for Lewwyn ... but as it was, I was half way expecting that I might end up splitting the vote, and causing myself to be hung. Ultimately though, none of my arguments have been convincing during Day 1, and by bringing myself further into the limelight I would have only hastened my own death. So really, by the end of the wire my primary goal was survival. Did I think Jkaen could have been a wolf? Yes ... but at no more than 30% certainty. It was more about my self not dying, and I wasn't too pleased that Gaspar was willing to sacrifice me in order to see Jkaen let go. Due to this unfortunate turn of events, I was pleased when some of the votes went Scooters way, so that Gaspar wouldn't try to make a landslide in favor of me dying. That being said, I still wasn't going to vote scooter since I had no reason to think him a wolf (imo).

Ultimately, by the end of the day (yes I had doubts about MJW but I was still leaning towards him being villager) ... my vote on Jkaen was influenced primarily for my survival, although I could have just as easily have voted Scooter. HOWEVER! Arguments made by MJW, whom at the time I still had reasons to think he was a villager, ultimately swayed me to vote for Jkaen. That plus the fact that people were switching there votes and lots of stuff was happening, I didn't want to vote for scooter and then have it just of been a race between Jkaen and I.

While I didn't fully think MJW was a wolf until after the deadline, I had my suspicions on him.

Assuming he was a villager, I thought Jkaen might actually be a wolf.

However, if he was a wolf then his arguments about Jkaen would have been invalid, and knowing that going into the voting? Well it wouldn't have made a lot of difference. Instead of Jkaen (wolf) vs Scooter (villager), it was just Villager/Villager/Villagerme.

Therefore, if I HAD known MJW was wolf, then I would have known Jkaen as villager and had to of gone with a self preservation vote anyways. Although I would have had a more difficult decision ... kill scooter and deny MJW a power? or to kill a non poster and give MJW the power anyways ... not a decision I would have liked having, so its almost better that I (still sort of) thought MJW was villager right up until the end.

That being said, I don't get why MJW voted on me ... clearly he wanted to appear like he was not railroading Jkaen, which he clearly was ... maybe this was some meta strategy? Classic MJW double bluff?

Before the deadline was reached, I was worried about voting at all .. for I felt if I voted Jkaen before the deadline, at least Gaspar would have switched to me (which he did, albeit past the deadline )

and if I voted for Scooter, I'm sure someone else I missed would have ended up switching to me.

Either way, I felt voting non-me, on one of the bandwagons ... would have gotten me killed. (hence the deadline vote)

I mean the deadline vote was only half way planned, starting at T minus 5 hours (because I originally thought noon was the deadline, lol) Therefore in the last 5 hours I had to decide between Scooter and Jkaen, and I had to decide how close I was willing to go before the deadline before submitting my vote.


So to reiterate, I'm pretty sure Lewwyn is a wolf. Assuming wolf set A is correct, the idea is that Lewwyn and Mardoc will be the 'visibly public wolves', clearly working together yet also gaining good cover when possible. These would be 'classic wolves' in the sense that they try to go for easy targets and use a minimal amount of double crossing ... instead relying on only a simple and straightfoward bluff.

Then the other two wolves will be separate entities acting at completely different angles.

However I am inclined to think that Slowcheetah is a wolf, therefore Lewwyn and Mardoc's cooperation might only be coincidental, or Selrach might not be a wolf and its Lewwyn/Mardoc/SlowCheetah/MJW.

If there were 5 wolves I'd be set, but as there are only 4 ... one of the (non Lewwyn) guesses are innocent.

Assuming Mardoc and Lewwyn are working together, I think due to Day 1 having so little to go on, they decided to go for an easy kill rather than try to get a harder target/ useful villager.

Meanwhile, assuming Selrahc is the shadow wolf, while he opposed them of this style of play, he wasn't going to interfere/force them to quit less it aroused suspicions.

Alternatively Slowcheetah could be the newbie Shadow wolf, and I'm wrong about either Selrahc or Mardoc.

Then we have MJW, as the double bluffer and the distracter. His goal is not to cause bandwagons on 'selected daytime targets' but instead his role is to split the vote away from fellow wolves (ie the Lewwyn dogpile).

I think MJW wanted JKaen dead so he could have his power activated, yet his switch to me was so that he would look like he was werewolf hunting, and also look like he didn't want to railroad Jkaen.

Honestly having Jkaen dead was likely MJW's #1 goal for today, as far as being a wolf goes ... and sadly he had his way in the end

Meanwhile Lewwyn and at least one other wolf clearly preferred to have my head on a pike, likely to arouse the least suspicion by going for an easy target.

And then there might have been one wolf staying out of it, both for cover decisions, and possible philosophical differences (Selrahc?).

As I've mentioned more than 1 possible set, I think I'll list potential wolf matchups below

MJW, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Selrahc

MJW, Lewwyn, Selrahc, Slowcheetah

MJW, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Slowcheetah

[Catwalk]

Tasunke, before someone else points it out less gently I'd like to caution you against thinking in wolf sets, especially early on. That kind of reasoning inevitably misleads you without any real evidence to base it on. We pretty much have to identify a wolf first before making inferences about connections, unless there are blatant rescue attempts or similar.

Also, walls of text tend to get you lynched

[Tasunke]

JKaen sorry to see you dead since you were a villager but please don't do this ' maybe I'm a seer maybe not but a normal villager would post differntly' ever again.

Agreed, it would have been a lot less easy to go along with MJW's deception if Jkaen had mustered some sort of normal, or at least more feasible, defense.

His role claim, and claim of innocence, seem to be accurate ... however his lack of a defense, either logical or chaotic or otherwise, seems to indicate that he did not have enough time to play.

And ultimately, I would have had a hard choice of which innocent to kill in order to avoid dying

Luckily however, I was still tricked by MJW and Jkaen's own actions into thinking that Jkaen was a wolf, so I wouldn't have to make the hard choice between killing a poster and giving MJW vig immunity ...

[Tasunke]

Also, walls of text tend to get you lynched

Thanks for the warning, I will definitely take this into consideration.

Didn't know, or even think, that Walls of Text could get someone lynched ... (but then if one is to believe Lewwyn is villager, so can Role Playing posts ... )

However avoiding wolf sets makes perfect sense... I only did this at this time in case I got vig killed (or in the unlikelier possiblity that the wolves kill me).


In the future I'll have to keep in mind that WW posting is a lot differently than reporting, and people like to re-read the thread in order to figure out who is who (which, I guess, makes sense why walls of text and role play posts are frowned upon)