WW11 - Civilization

[Sareln]

Continuing from where I left off, if we assume scooter is the wolf then I think we can clear those who voted for him, because it seems too risky for a pack to start a doublebluff vote for him so close to the deadline, with the outcome still hanging very much in the balance.

TLDR: If scooter is later found to be a wolf then I think Mardoc, Gaspar, Novice and Zakalwe are most probably innocent.

I'm not as confident that you can make that judgement. Scooter as innocent means that all 4 of them are unlikely to be wolves together but I wouldn't take that further and say that that means all of them must therefore be innocent.

When the block of 4 voting will be useful though is that it ties 5 people together, so that later on when 2 or 3 of them are known we can draw much better inferences from it.

@ Mardoc, I did a crazy read/blitz session for the last hour or two of the first day that involved reading the last 5 pages or so since I saw a close vote and felt I needed to get a good vote in, rather than just letting my busy-ness chuck away day 1. I have a hard time saying anything when I don't feel like I have good insight, but I'll see if I can work on that trait this game.

[Mardoc]

I'm not as confident that you can make that judgement. Scooter as innocent means that all 4 of them are unlikely to be wolves together but I wouldn't take that further and say that that means all of them must therefore be innocent.

...I'm not sure I follow, but that might be a mistype on your part. You don't seem to be addressing slowcheetah's quote - he's talking about a guilty scooter, and you're talking about an innocent one.

Still, if we go with what I think you meant, you have a point. I'm certain that at least three of us were online at the end (not sure if novice was on); if scooter is a wolf, we all had the option of jumping off the wagon.

I have a hard time saying anything when I don't feel like I have good insight, but I'll see if I can work on that trait this game.

Oh, believe me, I know the feeling! Still, you're an expert in your own mental processes, if nothing else. Plus, I doubt that anyone's going to have an epiphany that points out so-and-so *must* be a wolf; it's much more likely that we accumulate a number of small clues and hints. And...the best insights are those that are obvious to you but not to us.

I'll be switching my vote sometime in the next few hours, now that everyone's playing. Unfortunately I've got to pay attention to work, instead of combing the thread for clues, so don't expect it until I'm home this evening.

The main thing that's running through my mind at the moment, though, is scooter. Every single post of his has been reasonable. I tend to find myself nodding my head, agreeing. The vast majority of them, though, are calming, defusing, pointing out signs of innocence and removing pressure from people. This is extremely unhelpful! We can't learn anything without pressure and conflict, and without learning anything, we lose.

My internal debate is whether this is village scooter trying to be friendly, or wolf scooter trying to slow down village truth finding.

[zakalwe]

However, I am personally more suspicious of Selrahc.

Why?

[Selrahc]

Another thing that puzzled me (as mentioned earlier) was the sudden discussion of suspicions that had no chance of hanging with a convincing majority, at a time where we still struggling to put enough votes on two candidates. I recall seeing Selrahc and zakalwe doing this, and would be interested in an explanation.

I'm basically just discussing suspicious actions and patterns as I notice them, or if I agree with somebody else's observations and it sparks something. I don't think the obligation to do that changes because it's getting nearer to the vote. I'm not really sure what you're getting at with this whole line of reasoning. Discussing suspicious candidates isn't the same as derailing things, and I don't see a particularly good reason why I should be censoring myself and acting skittish just because a voting deadline is coming up.

Zakalwe said something. I thought it was pertinent. That seems like the whole tale to me.

I'm basically just discussing suspicious actions and patterns as I notice them,

On that note then, I think Slowcheetah has been a little bit too deliberate today. Frankly, it almost looks like he is attempting to copy Tasunke a bit with some of his theories. But then I was thinking Tasunke's theories were *very* newb villagerish so maybe Slowcheetah is also just a newb villager.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I had to sleep and so now it is uber-rant time!

I have to point out again that unless there is a vig I cannot be lying. I also voted Tansuke because he switched at the last second which does not make to much sense... This uber-rant also does not have typos and grammatical errors because I typed it up in word.

Gaspar not attacking Tusanke, Scooter or Rowain is very strange. He has hardly even talked about them. They are pretty juicy targets. Gaspar is not attacking them because he knows they are innocent and wants to look good by not pressing them (and he can not say anything nice about them so he can not talk about them without voting. Or some of them or wolfs and he does not want them to die—aggressively going after mislyches. His attack against lewwyn seems pretty forced too. Lewwyn was being very and concretely angry. Gaspar has also made some useless vote spamming. Vote switching that does not go anywhere. He has also increased his post count by bitching about the metagame i.e. talking about how wolfs act. He is acting like this game is a chore too because he likes playing villager more than wolf. I also find his attacks against me pretty weak as I have already said.

But the worst part is that Gaspar has not talked about Tusanke at all other then spamming “he's a misguided villager” over and over again. Gaspar is ether trying to save him or trying to look good when Tusanke dies. Ether way that is pretty wolfish. Tusanke is such a good target that this does not make much sense. There are many reasons why Tusanke is juicy-- I'll go over them in my next uberant post but I have to go now to a doctor's appointment.

I'll just end by saying that I am unsure about scooter and rowain--but there are people more likely to be wolfs.

[slowcheetah]

Great. Come home from work, having been half-following on my phone, and have to decide between Tasunke, Scooter, and Jkaen.

Quick summary of what I've seen: Scooter's being more understandable to me than Jkaen, and Tasunke...I don't know what to think about Tasunke at this point. Someone mentioned that if you don't have a clear read on newbies, let them live for another day. That seems like a better bet IMO.

I wish I was more convinced of Jkaen's guilt, but I'm not thrilled with my set of choices here.

Hm. I'd kinda ignored MJW in my quick read through of the thread. But I did notice his metagaming was a little excessive today. If changing is still allowed...

Tasunke

Both of these quotes are from Cyneheard, presumably your first vote came from a rushed read of the thread. Was the threat of powering up MJW the only reason for wanting to change to Tasunke over Jkaen? If so, why is the vilage so afraid of making MJW immune to night kills? I get that he's erratic and that'd disable a vig strike on him, but surely the village could lynch him if they felt strongly enough about him?

[zakalwe]

I have to point out again that unless there is a vig I cannot be lying.

That is certainly an overstatement, but I do kind of buy your argument that you'd be unlikely to guess Jkaen's power and claim the same one before him. And one-time night kill immunity seems like a strange power for a wolf. There is, however, the possibility that you're a wolf with the option of gaining, say, a one-time lynch immunity. Based on that, you could quite easily extrapolate what Jkaen's power must be. It's all pretty convoluted though, as theories go.

Anyway... what I really wanted to ask is, why do you have to point it out? Nobody is voting for you.

Currently, I think Tasunke is a more compelling lynch target than Gaspar, so I will help you get that wagon started if you want to go there. I don't buy the whole "staying quiet because nobody would agree with me if I posted something" explanation. It seems much too calculated, compared to his general play style. His continued habit of throwing votes without giving any reasoning for them is also bugging me. I think it's dangerous to get too attached to the "noob villager" theory as a catch-all explanation for his behavior.

[Rowain]

To clarify: villager scooter is an easy target for a werewolf.

Really scooter is an easy lynch target? Since when ?

In WW2 you were so good in projecting innocence that you convinced the possessed to kill you instead of the villager which lost the game for us.
In WW3 you were so good that you convinced a mason to sabotage his brother mason and save you from the gallows the one day you were in danger
In WW6 you were eaten by the wolves
In WW7 you were in danger on day 2 but got saved from the gallows because 2 wolves joined you on the poor villager who bit it instead.

3 out of 6 votes on the villager came from WW to save you. Exactly the thing you want us to believe that wouldn't happen.

TL;DR You are extremly hard to lynch.

[novice]

Both of these quotes are from Cyneheard, presumably your first vote came from a rushed read of the thread. Was the threat of powering up MJW the only reason for wanting to change to Tasunke over Jkaen? If so, why is the vilage so afraid of making MJW immune to night kills? I get that he's erratic and that'd disable a vig strike on him, but surely the village could lynch him if they felt strongly enough about him?

Yeah Cyneheard, what's the deal?

[Tasunke]

Why?

To answer Zakalwe, there was already some pressure on Slowcheetah so I wanted to apply pressure to Selrahc instead.

Later when I read Slowcheetah's defense, I enjoyed it. Meaning that I was reminded of Death Note/ Light Yagami, where in order to combat the 'investegator' he listed himself in the list of suspects, and indeed quite often noted where the evidence indited himself. After seeing Slowcheetah use a similar tactic, it made a lot more sense what was going on in that Anime. Still, this does not mean he is guilty. Whereas I've read very little arguments from Selrahc, although I guess its possible I simply couldn't find one. However, the assertion that SlowCheetah's defense was newb-like means that I likely won't find any sort of explanatory post from Selrahc or some of the more experienced players ... unless his use of assumptions was considered newb-like.

About his assumptions, I think Mardoc's analysis did make sense. Just because we are under the assumption that the wolves intended to split the vote (if we decide to make even that an assumption), it doesn't necessarily mean that either Scooter or I are innocent.

I mean *I* know I'm innocent, but for the village's sake we probably shouldn't assume things we don't need to.

I say 'things we don't need to' because I believe on must first make assumptions to then test a Hypothesis, or test those assumptions. First assume that X is Y, and then find instances where this could not be the case.

I think that is all for now.

I am trying to become better at this 'WW forum' style of play. The switch is difficult to say the least, so for now I'll simply try to not say anything stupid. I WILL note however, that many people are starting to write direct or indirect wolf lists ... right after posters called my wolf list pretty stupid. Maybe its a subtle thing, I dunno, or some type of group thought, or maybe I'm just that different. Im not sure at the moment. But I will try to integrate 'real data' that I can then present in posts, in the future. For now though I think I can at least still talk with my vote, so that I can contribute while trying to figure out what you people are looking for in a post. I'm gonna try reading old WW threads (when I have the time) in order to learn what good posts are .... however active threads are far more interesting to me, so will probably do the majority of my learning from this thread.