WW11 - Civilization

[Lewwyn]

Second 24. Keep in mind that to be fair about this I am going to point out posts that i think are both wolfy and villagery. I'm not going to cherry-pick.

After I start getting dogpiled, I wake up post angrily and Mardoc responds to doubters with:

I don't know. It is Lewwyn, after all. I've seen him get mad at all sorts of things.

Actually, this reasoning is why I'm going to leave my vote on you, you proposed we not lynch newbies right as Tasunke was starting to get a smidgen of pressure, but way way before the deadline. Afraid he'd crack?

I know it's way too early to be finding connections - but I've got darn near nothing else to base my thinking on. Everyone's too reasonable!

Anyway, I'm back, and I should have more time in the upcoming days than the past ones. Only work can interfere with WW now .

Thanks buddy!

So couple thing here. He defends me after Scooter attacks. This post is a bit half and half. I'm not saying everyone who agrees with or defends me is a wolf. But coupled with the earlier voting for the same people I am is a bit suspicious. After this and the earlier posts I had a lot of goodwill towards Mardoc and wasn't even considering him as a suspect.

Next Mardoc faces off with Scooter:

You'd say the same thing guilty or innocent, sadly. So I can't really gain any information from your defense.

Ichabod thinks I'm making too much of this. And I have to admit, it was Selrahc's repeated use of this defense that's sticking in my mind, more than anything else. What do others think? Gaspar, novice, zak? Am I imagining things here? Is there anything better to go off of, this early?

I really don't want to repeat my WW3 performance

Well...you say that, but then I remember Gaspar's wolf loss, the one where pling et al were willing, but new - and that wolf pack went down in flames. Newbies got caught out easily. Whereas our best wolf victories were all practiced people.

I find the questioning, "Am I imagining things here?" coupled with Gaspar novice zap to be a bit curious. I feel there's a little too much eagerness to be "right" and a bit of fishing.

Next about Scooter:

And...there's a sign of innocence, I think. Enough to put me back to having no clue instead of half a clue.

Unvote

So...what's the case against Lewwyn, again? That he's too careful, and his 'losing his temper' also seemed too careful? Anything you can point to?

Rereading the thread...I'm lost. There's not much point in saving my vote, though, so novice

Being lost this early should be pretty common. Why so worried about it?

Next:

Ah, so I'm not the only one reminded of Zakofonix. It's a hard thing to say, since Zakalwe is much more enjoyable to read when he's a wolf, but it does seem suspicious.

On a related note - who's Angry Scorpion, anyway? I haven't been able to parse Zak's latest vote.

Dang it, I'm normally better at checking my work before I post. I meant Toxic Scorpion, of course.

These two come right after each other. I have to say I think the mistake and follow up are a bit villager-y. But making a mistake and then being able to capitalize on it would be great for a wolf.

So here we see Mardoc starting to engage with others and for the most part he is keeping a very even keel. There's not rocking the boat theres a bit of suspicions, theres questions and trying to reach out to others and theres enough being posted that we're not questioning him being quiet.

I'm hoping to get through some more quickly enough that they can all be read together, but I didn't want to just sit on them. My last post I'll do a tl;dr of my conclusions for everyone.

[Lewwyn]

I would PM you this but ... since its related to the WW thread I think its against the rules.

Isn't the Catwalk comment a bit trollish? You seem to have a rather low opinion of others ... and this 'the power of Lewwyn' bit, while its fine to be confident in one's abilities, I think it'd be nice to show some humility. Well, at least in a public discussion thread such as this.
[SPOILER]Everyone has the right to be a cocky bastard in their own spoiler threads ... but come on man!

[/SPOILER]

I have a low opinion of Catwalk. I've been nothing but forthright with that for the last, what 6 months? Even earlier in this thread. I'm not going to start sugarcoating it now. Did you only just start paying attention?

'Power of Lewwyn' is tongue in cheek referring to my habit of continuing to go after someone until their dead whether they are guilty or not. I'm not being cocky I'm making fun of myself. It's not a character trait I'm terribly proud of, but one I've been trying to change evidenced by not trying to lynch you today (and my God I'm having a hard time not doing that right now).

[Lewwyn]

Interesting 24 hours. I see both Villager and wolf

First the pressure against him started by Rowain and his response:

My turn to convince you? Only there's the minor issue that I don't know how. I could...present insightful targetting analysis, like the 'Mardoc's fears' analysis in WW3 .

Or I could get mad about having more time to spend with my PBEMs, if you decide to lynch a weak villager. But I'm not sure that would hurt the village, really, except in the sense of a wasted day. I thought my extensive lurking might give me hints as to what to look for, but it's not helping so far. None of my gambits are working, probably because people know better than to follow my lead

I suppose I'll just keep talking; in WW3 that eventually convinced people I was innocent (although I don't know why, exactly), and it's better to be eaten than hanged. I'm to the point of being afraid to survive to the end and experience deja vu, though.

Who knows maybe the keep talking thing will make people believe he's innocent.

The next few deal with the survive to the end comment that is attacked by Ichabod:

Eh? The goal of the game isn't survival, it's wolf killing. You don't have to be alive at the end to win, so long as the wolves are somehow caught. In fact, usually village MVP's don't survive, but they take down enough wolves with them to be worth the sacrifice. You only want to survive in the sense that if you let people lynch you, they're not lynching a wolf instead. (all assuming you're actually a villager here).

If all you're going to do is watch, then you should just be a lurker, not a player.

Anyway, voting [strike]novice[/strike] doesn't seem to be achieving much of anything, he didn't even comment. I think I'm going to go back to indulging my suspicion on Tasunke, for voting Cyneheard before having a reason to. Only no one else would help me with that, so next best is scooter for defending Tasunke.

Also, a general call - Ichabod, Selrahc (sort of zakalwe) - we're down to less than 24 hours on the day. Vote for someone! You don't do us any good leaving the pressure off.

I do like the general call to lurkers to vote.

Simple. If I survive to the end, it's because I was, again, totally clueless. That's a feeling that hurts.

Why sign up? Because I thought I'd learned something from lurking.

The next few make me feel bad for voting for him

My main suspicion at the moment is Tasunke, but I know I couldn't get him lynched if I tried, thanks to, well, you. And worse, he knows it, so pressure won't stick.

You're the only one even tenuously connected to him, so I can test that theory indirectly. Maybe.

About the only thing I'm convinced of at this point is that Lewwyn is likely innocent.

Thanks Buddy!
And:

I see your point, somewhat, I just don't think it's a hard rule. There's bound to be exceptions. And I don't think Tasunke has it in him to sit on his hands when he could be playing.

What's suspicious about Tasunke? I guess it is hard to point to specifics, but I'll try to explain myself.

Freshest in my mind, he voted Cyneheard, then asked for MJW's case to back it up. Why would anyone do that? Either explain yourself when you vote, or not, but if you're looking for everyone else's arguments, that should come before you vote. Unless your goal is to justify yourself, rather than find the truth.

He's gotten more suspicious of Lewwyn at a time when I've been starting to trust Lewwyn. Which feels more like a wolf, picking a target from a list of known innocents.

A bit of circular reasoning: you wouldn't have jumped to protect him so fast if you weren't both wolves. My initial vote was meant to be simply early pressure, to see how he reacted, and then pick a real target later on. But you defused that super quickly, before he had a chance to react. Interestingly, he picked you as his first joke target, too, which feels like a wolf maneuver.

He seems to be jumping onto bandwagons, too. Not leaving his vote in one spot long enough to do any good, or even long enough that I believe it was arguments that changed his mind.

Finally - a number of other people are getting ever so slightly cleared in my mind, while he's not.

So...bulletproof? Nope . Better than my case against anyone else? Sure.

This makes me feel bad since Mardoc is all trusting me and now I'm doing a dossier on him.
This is his longest post in the game, it attacks both Tasunke and SCooter, while admitting to circular reasoning.

There's a chance I might actually get my preferred target?
[strike]scooter[/strike]

Tasunke

Same reasoning as before.

Said reasoning stated above.

Originally Posted by Selrahc
Tasunke apparently believes that the entire wolf team is out in a coordinated effort to take his skull. To the extent that they'll risk exposing their entire team to do it. That's incredibly self important. Which I'd believe more of a lone individual(wolf or village) than a team writing.

I have to admit, this is the perspective that's making me reconsider my vote. That combined with the fact that if you take him literally, he believes he's already found at least 3/4 of the wolves. It's like looking at a mirror to the past. Going to have to read instead of skim everyone else's thoughts before I know where to put my vote instead, but I'll probably be switching later today, once I have time.

Still, at least we finally got some real pressure onto Tasunke. I feel much more confident in leaving him alone now that we forced him to react rather than act.

Very interesting thing here. Mardoc seems to be realizing about Tasunke faster than I did. Is it because he's a wolf or because he knows a good argument when he seems him. Funnily enough he poses this same question in thpost after the following one.


This post was pretty neutral for a vote on Sareln.

That was less useful than I was hoping

I guess it makes sense to vote an inactive, with my only strong suspicion defused and the deadline coming. I don't want to vote Jkaen, though, he's had some clutch plays in past games. OTOH, Sareln managed to get himself lynched after being cleared by a seer, if I remember correctly. And he's busy, so won't be useful.

Yeah, I hate to vote on meta-analysis like that; if someone's got a stronger case for a third party, I'm all ears.

Conspiracy theory: someone has an ability to influence the vote count via PM. Or to influence what uber posts.

This is the one I referenced before.

So - am I too easily swayed? What do you see that I don't? I'll grant that your justification back when you jumped on him was one example, I hadn't registered the one-word vote for Lewwyn as significant.

Or maybe a better question is, what's not convincing about his belief that he's already discovered three wolves by their conspiracy to get him lynched? (Me, Cyneheard, Lewwyn, for reference). Does it strike you as a fake - and if so, can you explain why?

Should I move my vote back to Tasunke?

He's doing his whole question thing, but it feels a lot more real, the confusion seems real…

Man… Gonna draw some quick conclusions up to this point in another post.

[Lewwyn]

To this point I've reviewed 3 days worth of posts. After I got shook up on Tasunke I wanted to reevaluate everything. I went back through the list and asked myself, who is suspicious that I haven't paid much attention too? I immediately thought of Mardoc. Mardoc has never suspected me in any of these posts. He's been my buddy and I have found myself considering him as such. When I think about who I could count on to vote for a target that I think is a wolf I would think of Mardoc. When I realized that I suddenly got very suspicious. I realized he'd buddied up to me in such a way that was both subtle and insinuating. Either that or he just genuinely thought I was innocent. I checked his post count, very middle of the road. Overall his posting style has been not too long not too short. I remember him being more confident then WW3. All sort of indicators for me. So I voted for him to see what he'd say before I went through his posts.

Having gone through 3 days of posts I can honestly say that he was suspicious, but that the more he talked the more he reminded me of WW3 Mardoc. He mentioned that in one of his posts and he was right. He is more confident about what he's doing but he's also trying to be careful. He feels exactly like an experienced villager who's been burned. He tries to be confident in his analysis but also comes across unsure. Pretty much the only thing he's sure about from what I can tell is my innocence. In every post he's being a lot more open and honest.

In my mind there isn't any more doubt. Mardoc is a villager.

Unvote

I went into this with a hypothesis that Mardoc was a wolf, through research I have decided that that simply isn't true. I found myself trying to find the wolf or make things fit the wolf profile. In alot of ways this was extremely helpful. I did this exact thing for GES in WW3 at the end of the game and came away believing 100% that he was a wolf. After doing it here with Mardoc I am almost as sure about him being a villager as I was about GES being a wolf. The only reason I'm not 100% is because its only day 2. But I don't think I'm going to vote for Mardoc again.

3 days covered about 3/4s of the thread so I'm not going to finish it out when I'm satisfied with my findings. You all can still mistrust him if you like. Now I have to decide who to vote for next.

[Lewwyn]

Ugh. I don't want to have to do that for everyone.

[Lewwyn]

Novice has caught my eye on several posts. I shall dig em up when I have time this evening.

[Sareln]

As promised earlier, Mardoc, though Lewwyn's recent analysis has made that less sure.

[Gaspar]

I don't get suspecting Mardoc at all. But I guess maybe I know him pretty well?

Also Tasunke, the nested spoilers thing is unbelievably annoying. I don't know why you keep doing that everywhere.

I think one of the lurkers is probably guilty but I'm loathe to pick at them hard in remembering WW7. If I had to put money on one I'd say Sareln, but slowcheetah would be equally believable.

[Sareln]

I don't get suspecting Mardoc at all. But I guess maybe I know him pretty well?

Also Tasunke, the nested spoilers thing is unbelievably annoying. I don't know why you keep doing that everywhere.

I think one of the lurkers is probably guilty but I'm loathe to pick at them hard in remembering WW7. If I had to put money on one I'd say Sareln, but slowcheetah would be equally believable.

How do you figure that? The only difference I'm seeing between this game and all my others is the fact that MJW isn't coming after me like a bat outta hell and given his (strange) sense of respect for my actual situation (which nearly shocked me out of my chair given his usual stance of Sareln must go) and the benefits he claims to garner from JKaen's death, I'm pretty comfortable thinking that that's the difference so far.

Looking over Lewwyn's argument, I think Mardoc is less likely to be guilty at this point in my mind. Collecting the posts together definitely makes it easier to see that than when I was on the iPod earlier today working off straight impressions.

Call it an Unvote while I put together a tally with vote record.

[Catwalk]

I haven't finished reading but I have to get this off my chest, I'll catch up on the non-braindead players later:

MJW, you are an aggressive and unpleasant troll.

That was surprisingly calm (no sarcasm)

I would PM you this but ... since its related to the WW thread I think its against the rules.

Isn't the Catwalk comment a bit trollish? You seem to have a rather low opinion of others ... and this 'the power of Lewwyn' bit, while its fine to be confident in one's abilities, I think it'd be nice to show some humility. Well, at least in a public discussion thread such as this.

For the record, I considered his comment to be positively heart-warming So much in fact, that I want to vote Lewwyn. His revision of Mardoc doesn't sit right with me, it reads like one big attempt at buddying up and looking pro-town. And I still think he blew up at me almost preemptively earlier. I suspect that he was using his reputation to both establish an alibi for himself ("That's just Lewwyn being Lewwyn") and to discourage me from further pursuing my suspicion of him. Coming across very forcefully can have that effect sometimes, and I'm probably susceptible to that. *dons flame proof armour and awaits the return of the Lewwyn*

As for your situation, don't get discouraged by critical feedback. WW requires you to develop tough fur Also make sure to acknowledge the feedback, however it's presented, as you really have been all over the place. And if you're a NAPster, keep running!
:ranatt::wakka: