WW11 - Civilization

[Lewwyn]

man just lost 3 games... So Pissed

My friends love it when I lose... FUCK

[Ichabod]

There's a lot of posts to go through since my last comments, so I better split it.

Just to reiterate (may as well since there isn't much else to comment on currently), he wasn't irrelevant to my decision. I commented on MJW since Scooter's innocent read on MJW was another indication to me that Scooter might be faking his reads.

I am not impressed with how you've parked your vote on me after I have refuted your arguments. You said you wanted "my take on" something, I provided it, and you then said you "don't buy my explanation", so your neutral request for information has suddenly evolved into a concrete suspicion. You also wanted Selrahc's take, so why not move your vote to him, to provoke a response from him, too? Perhaps you had already decided to park your vote in a "safe" place on me, and just viewed my prompt answer to your question as an inconvenient annoyance?

I already quoted this post, but I think it went unnoticed. I find it to be a very good argument. I agree that it seemed to be that Catwalk already had decided on a resoning to vote for Zakalwe, even before waiting for the answer to his question, and he just disregarded Zak's response later.

It's extremely hard to come up with votes as playing a wolf. So Catwalk's question post really seems like laying ground for a subsequent already planned vote. The fact that it's a continuation of a suspicious that Catwalk made in the first day (he suspected Zakalwe pretty early on day 1) also is worth noticing, because a wolf is afraid to contradict himself (by voting for someone and than forgetting about that person later). And I found Catwalk's argument about derailing the discussion to not be a very good one. It's like he needed something more fresh to keep his suspicious on Zakalwe.

Here's Catwalks posts:

My apologies for crossposting with you. I don't quite buy your explanation, though. It was blatantly obvious that the vote was very split (not just relatively but also in terms of lost votes), and I think this was a poor outcome for the town. Again, am I completely missing something here? I'm levelling that accusation at you and Selrahc because you're the ones who started discussing something that was highly unlikely to gain sufficient traction at a very late time. What was the benefit? I don't see how it matters that you kept your votes in place, I think that'd be the obvious NAP move to make (bit too obvious to actively split the vote further, like Rowain did).

For the record, I was at school working on a group project and hopped on to type from time to time. I do accept your explanation, and did not intend to park my vote. I think you know better than to assume I'd consider you a safe vote parking lot, though. I think my suspicion matches my posts from yesterday expressing frustration at the events leading up to the lynch. I will unvote for now, will have time to read and comment later tonight. Selrahc, I'd be interested in your take on why the vote remained heavily split leading up to the lynch.

FYI I'd be down with voting Gaspar too. His actions are just screaming wolf to me - it's like he's picking an "easy suspect target" and then coming up with reasons why they seem wolfish rather than looking for suspicious activity and calling people out on it. There's a subtle difference, but one is what a wolf does, and the other is what a villager does. Especially because Gaspar is usually quite good at reading people and his observations just seem a little too "duh" for him.

I found the easy suspect target sentence to be strange too, scooter. Later you explained it after Rowain called you on it. But I also read what you said as "hard to lynch" not "hard to make acusations on", like Rowain. I agree there's a difference, but it's a very small one. Better yet, a very methodical one. You calling Rowain on it as if he was twisting your words seemed a bit forced to me.

I suppose there's been enough of my name in red/suggested to be in red in the future that I can explain myself a little bit better. I'll even keep my cool, promise!

I don't think there's much in my play that's similar to WW7. Primarily because my posts have been much more direct. But even more than that, I don't actually think you'll find a lot of spots where say you, Roland and myself are agreeing directly. We were pretty cautious about that.

The part that seemed wolfy was the trying to draw a connection where none exists. While I'll accept zakalwe, novice and myself are to some extent linked in these games based on the sheer volume of times that we end up each others foremost accusers I think the only thing we had in common on day 1 was ending up on the same place. I generally dislike connection theories before we have a confirmed scum, as I often state when trying to discourage newbies from doing so - it leads to an unproductive confirmation bias. That an experienced player such as yourself was drawing it - well that sounds suspicious.

That's one of the things that I've learned from playing more of the game. You can't get all over people for bad reads - we all make them. But a bad process can be indicative of scum trying to derail. Am I saying I think you're scum because of this? Not really. I'm saying its questionable.

See above.

I feel like you're agreeing with him a lot. Perhaps its my own confirmation bias since the two of you have fingered me quite a bit. I'll look through the thread when I get out of work tonight and reassess.

[quote=Ichabod]And, yes, I agreed with scooter in my comment above, but that was after your comment...

You seem to be doing with me the same we did with zakalwe in WW7. Throw a suspicious here and there, make some similingly good argument here and there and than waiting for the villagers to jump at him on their own, never being the starter of the bandwagon.

So, I vote Gaspar.

This is just your own getting annoyed because I accused you. I did start the earlier bandwagon you. I started the bandwagon on scooter (with zakalwe's help.) Hell, I helped get the bandwagon on Jkaen going. I never shy from being first vote on someone and I haven't at all shied in this game from leading the caravan. So that's a pretty false accusation. Whether that's because you're misreading or intentionally deceiving, I don't know.

That's really where I'm at with you Ichabod. I find you slightly off this game. Maybe that's because usually we agree a lot and this game we haven't. Maybe its because we've at least insinuated one another's guilt often. Or maybe its because you're part of the NAP. I don't know, but I'm not going to back off trying to find out because you're putting a vote on me.

Not entirely, but I see the connection. I actually think many of the European first time wolves have played the same - stay quiet, lots of excuses, little to no observational content. Gustaran and Molach leap immediately to mind.

I don't think this is true either. I don't think you're an easy target in general. And if that were the case, would have been very easy to just stick with Jkaen or Tasunke or for that matter MJW. All much easier targets than you.

scooter, if you think my observations are poor could you point out an example of an observation you think is poor that I made that didn't involve you? I guess I'd like to ask Ichabod the same thing. What's prompting you to vote me other than the fact that I've been suspicious of you? What other peculiar behavior have I exhibited? I guess if I must defend, I'd much rather defend something other than what I'm sure you'll both agree are quite often just personal reactions to suspicions being placed on you.

It's not because you've been suspicious of me on itself. It's because I think your arguments are somewhat forced and because you seem to always throw some sort of "adjective" when adressing me that I find to be strange (this is odd, this is not like you and so forth) and as paranoid as it can be, I only see you doing it when adressing me. Again you do it saying about the personal reactions comment.

And you perceived way I should behave seems to be forgetting all games I played before WW7, when I played way more cautiously, like I'm doing now. The fact is, I don't like being agressive. And I'd expect you to know this. But I think you called me on the "way I was playing" before I even had, what? 5 posts in the thread.

About your want for objective arguments, I concede there aren't many. It's mostly down to the fact that I feel a strange tone when you adress me. After all, you are experienced enough playing as a wolf not to easily contradict yourself. First day as a wolf is just keeping calm, throw down some votes, maybe one unexpected one here and there.

But, that being said, I think it was MJW that pointed out how this argument was strange, and I agree with him.

Uh, since uber hasn't posted yet can I still save Jkaen?

Well, not going to get scooter today (who looked more wolfish in the last 3 hours than he did before I voted for him) and while I think Tasunke is innocent, I don't want any part of powering up MJW, who smells extra funny today.

For one, we don't know that his power-up is the same as Jkaen's and we'll never know since MJW lies all the time.

For two, if that is his power if we have a vig it takes that option off the table.

Its not the end of days by any means, but its better to be avoided considering the unreliability of the person in question.

I think Zak provided the only possible alternative for MJW power that fit what happened in the thread, which was this one:

There is, however, the possibility that you're a wolf with the option of gaining, say, a one-time lynch immunity. Based on that, you could quite easily extrapolate what Jkaen's power must be. It's all pretty convoluted though, as theories go.

And even this theory is hard to believe in. But since you said we couldn't be sure about MJW's power being what he said it was, I'd expect you to at least present the same argument that Zak did, since I find it the only one feasible. As a generic statement ("we can't be sure of his powers"), the argument is weak, because it'd involve some pretty sharp guess by MJW. So it seems like a filler answer because you were called on your vote switch.

Gaspar - I'll get to your post either very soon or in a few hours.

Ichabod - I don't think I've seen you post a "likely guilty" and "likely innocent" list at all. If you had to guess right now, what 3 people seem most likely to be wolves and what 3 people seem most likely to be innocent? And why?

Well, my biggest suspects right now are Gaspar, Catwalk and Selrahc. Gaspar and Catwalk I explained. Selrahc is due to general tone of his posts, very blunt, agressive and like he is mad at most of the players.

The player who seems to be playing mostly like an innocent to me is Mardoc (he's playing pretty accuraately with his personality). But I don't have many innocent tells, only less suspected players than others. MJW and Novice read as innocent to me too.

Anyway, there's a lot of players that are almost just skipping my mind. Cyneheard and Sareln, for example. I'm only reading the thread once, because I don't have much time currently, and I end up focusing more on some players.

I'm basically just discussing suspicious actions and patterns as I notice them, or if I agree with somebody else's observations and it sparks something. I don't think the obligation to do that changes because it's getting nearer to the vote. I'm not really sure what you're getting at with this whole line of reasoning. Discussing suspicious candidates isn't the same as derailing things, and I don't see a particularly good reason why I should be censoring myself and acting skittish just because a voting deadline is coming up.

Zakalwe said something. I thought it was pertinent. That seems like the whole tale to me.

On that note then, I think Slowcheetah has been a little bit too deliberate today. Frankly, it almost looks like he is attempting to copy Tasunke a bit with some of his theories. But then I was thinking Tasunke's theories were *very* newb villagerish so maybe Slowcheetah is also just a newb villager.

This is an example of Selrahc post. Is almost like he's trying to make people scared of voting for him with his agressiveness. It's worth noticing, though, that Selrahc's way of posting is usually similar to that (even outside of WW). But this, combined with some very nitpicky comments he made sometimes make him suspicious to me. But I rather vote for gaspar or Catwalk right now.

Both of these quotes are from Cyneheard, presumably your first vote came from a rushed read of the thread. Was the threat of powering up MJW the only reason for wanting to change to Tasunke over Jkaen? If so, why is the vilage so afraid of making MJW immune to night kills? I get that he's erratic and that'd disable a vig strike on him, but surely the village could lynch him if they felt strongly enough about him?

I agree that I don't get the fear of the MJW power-up. Zak made a good point about the possibility of a lynch-prevent, but the fact that MJW called Jkaen's power in the first posts of the game make it hard to believe that his power is other than what he said it is.

I think you have an extra "*" .

Anyway I think your style would lead to gaspar voting for you unless gaspar is a wolf. I'm still unsure about you. Your style is kind of like mine and really would really anger gaspar. He would comment and you more and vote for you after you last second switch stunt.

Oh and zak I have re-read your post. The reason I brought up the fact that I can not be lying is because people have attacked me and I want to so the attacks against me where baseless.

Good point about Gaspar view on Tasunke. But I have to say that most of Gaspar real anger seem to come from your constant offensive posts, not so much for the "crazyness" in them. But while I don't think Gaspar would get really anger at Tasunke, I'd expect some more direct responses to him.

[Ichabod]

Well, we can always return to Novice later, and I agree with Gaspar that Scooter is the current elephant in the room, so he would make a good lynch. But as long as we're all just flailing about anyway, I'd like to propose another lynch candidate, who has been at the back of my mind for some time. Let's look back at the final tally for day 1.

Code:

Jkaen (7) - Catwalk Cyneheard Ichabod Scooter Selrahc Tasunke*
Tasunke (5) - Jkaen Lewwyn MJW Sareln Slowcheetah
Scooter (4) - Gaspar Mardoc Novice Zakalwe
MJW (1) - Rowain
Sarelh (1) - Meiz

*Claimed double vote

I don't believe Jkaen was lynched by 6 villagers. Looking at the people who voted for Jkaen, the person that surprises me the most to see there is Ichabod. Something definitely felt off when I saw him posting that he was logging off and leaving his vote on Jkaen. It just really felt wrong, intuitively. I also think he is way too passive and spending too much time making elaborate arguments about very minor points. Yes, he comes off as very reasonable when arguing so carefully, but he is contributing little to the scum hunting. When he does contribute a read, it's frequently just a neutral analysis of someone's behavior, without really concluding whether said behavior is scummy or not. His reluctance to simply cast a vote at the start of day 2 was also mystifying. If he were a villager, he would want to pressure someone. Play styles may vary a little from game to game, but the underlying motivation should remain the same, when you're innocent. For him, even waking up to see day 2 should be a bit of a relief, and he should be eager to make the most of it, rather than shuffling his feet. It all reminds me A LOT about WW7.

I cannot really articulate any stronger evidence than the above, but I have been watching him for a while, and my gut feeling has continued to grow stronger. Since it's just day 2 anyway, I think he'd be a good lynch.

I still have some good 5 pages to read and comment on, but let me adress this. First, I can't really tell if your comment about me leaving my vote at Jkaen is a "time related argument". If it is, I just say that I had class that night. I draw a line between the type of lies one can say on a werewolf game and I won't lie about having class. That's where I'll stop discussing the subject. If that was not what you were trying to say, I'm sorry.

And you are using selective memory regarding my way of playing, like Gaspar. I don't like throwing votes around. I think I played better games before WW7, when playing more cautiously, than after WW7.

Anyway, you have my vote now. It's on Gaspar. I'd also change to Catwalk. I like them better then Selrahc. If I can't get traction on Gaspar and Catwalk, I'd vote Selrahc right now (take into account that I'm still like 5 pages behind).

[Mardoc]

Err, thanks, Lewwyn, I think. Not what I expected to see when I went to bed with both you and Sareln jumping on me! Of course, now I need to hope we've got a baner

Pretty much the only thing he's sure about from what I can tell is my innocence.

Eh, not really. You're on the villager side of things, I'm not going to vote you anytime soon, but it's too early to say I'm 'sure' about anything. Probably too early to say I'm sure until we get the official word from uberfish, actually

Ugh. I don't want to have to do that for everyone.

But that sort of analysis is useful, and I'd love to feel a little less lost! And more, it reminded me of one of Selrahc's best contributions, him seeing Tasunke's probable innocence ahead of the rest of us. In general, people picking out the significant posts from the fluff helps me think.

Catwalk For the post Ichabod points out (and zak pointed out) - and also for a very questionable defense of Slowcheetah.

posted polish pass`em round votes with awesome wolf reasons.

Huh? I don't understand what you mean.

Anyway, everyone else is doing it:
Probable Innocent:
Tasunke

Leaning Innocent:
Scooter
Selrahc
Ichabod
Lewwyn

Not a clue:
Cyneheard
Gaspar
MJW
Novice
Rowain
Sareln
Zakalwe

Suspicious:
Catwalk
Slowcheetah

Probable Wolf:

[novice]

I had forgotten about those post-deadline votes. (I was asleep when it happened, just skimmed through those posts the morning after.) That is actually a bit suspicious by Gaspar, he'd know full well that those votes would be discarded, so was he just sticking his neck out to gain town cred? I remember flailing around with votes when I was a wolf, with reverse psychology in mind, whereas everybody else was stuck on opposite sides of Zakalwe's 95% wolf/seer/fool argument.

Another thing, on day 1 we were discussing Gaspar and his temper, and how well-behaved he had been. Then suddenly he posted a small tantrum out of the blue, related to nothing, really. That also struck me as odd. As if he felt obliged to demonstrate his irrational anger.

[scooter]

Scooter's guilt or innocence has basically been the entire lynchpin of the second day so far, so why dance around the issue? If he's guilty then we have a nice cadre of potential partners. If he's innocent then his most aggressive accusers certainly look suspicious. I'm open to discussion as we still have more than half the 2nd day left but I'm not getting any great revelations.

Unfortunately I can't disagree with you at all. I briefly considered voting for myself at end of day 1 because I figured if all 3 of us was innocent (my hunch at the time), I knew I'd give the most info. However, Jkaen seemed at least mildly suspicious so I went with that and self-preservation. I think Zakalwe echoed sentiments similar to this saying I'd provide the most info, but I can't seem to find his post where he said it.

We could lynch Scooter for information but he's defending well, pointing out how he makes a good target for fake suspicion. OTOH, why didn't he get more votes on day 1 then? Because I think those who actually did vote Scooter did it more for information than out of suspicion. I know I did, at least.

Wolves would be foolish to all pile on me. Spread the votes out when it's going to be a villager mislynch is standard play. I'd be seriously shocked if more than 2 of them actually voted for me. Only 1 is pretty likely too. Here's the final count:

Jkaen (7*) - Catwalk Cyneheard Ichabod Scooter Selrahc Tasunke ???
Tasunke (5) - Jkaen Lewwyn MJW Sareln Slowcheetah
Scooter (4) - Gaspar Mardoc Novice Zakalwe
MJW (1) - Rowain
Sarelh (1*) - Meiz

I might have only gotten 4 votes... But several other people here did vote for me and/or put serious pressure on me - such as Lewwyn, MJW, Rowain, and I think one other I can't remember. Interesting that nobody who has suspected me ended up voting Jkaen. They either voted for me or picked somebody else. Hmmm.

[scooter]

Cyneheard is pinging in the back of my head. Ever since the village consensus became that he was probably innocent he completely disappeared. As if his wolf buddies went "ok you got lucky and scooter stuck his neck out for you, now shut up and blend in for awhile."

[Lewwyn]

cyneheard

[Catwalk]

I already quoted this post, but I think it went unnoticed. I find it to be a very good argument. I agree that it seemed to be that Catwalk already had decided on a resoning to vote for Zakalwe, even before waiting for the answer to his question, and he just disregarded Zak's response later.

It's extremely hard to come up with votes as playing a wolf. So Catwalk's question post really seems like laying ground for a subsequent already planned vote. The fact that it's a continuation of a suspicious that Catwalk made in the first day (he suspected Zakalwe pretty early on day 1) also is worth noticing, because a wolf is afraid to contradict himself (by voting for someone and than forgetting about that person later). And I found Catwalk's argument about derailing the discussion to not be a very good one. It's like he needed something more fresh to keep his suspicious on Zakalwe.

I think your arguments assume knowledge of zakalwe's innocence. Only wolves and zakalwe know his alignment. Given that I don't know it, I don't think my suspicions are unreasonable. I think his post count after 24h stood out, and I found that worth commenting on since we had almost nothing to go on. I did miss his post about being busy, my mention of him possibly being busy was not in reference to that. And on that note, I still find it plausible that having to coordinate with a NAP team (on top of being busy with housework) contributed to his low post count. And no, this is not a major suspicion.

I later commented on him and Selrahc discussing MJW shortly before the lynch, with no votes on MJW and general difficulty agreeing on lynch candidates. I still don't get the argument why a split vote is np, and I found this worthwhile to pursue. I left my vote on him by accident, which he took great issue with. Would it be a safe wolf play to leave the vote on him? Is it any more likely I'd forget to unvote as a wolf than as a villager? I don't think my plays suggest I'm more likely to be wolf than villager, I think they make plenty sense as villager.

[zakalwe]

I can't really tell if your comment about me leaving my vote at Jkaen is a "time related argument".

It's not. I just thought it was strange that you voted for Jkaen. Why didn't you join us on Scooter?

I think your arguments assume knowledge of zakalwe's innocence.

I was thinking the same thing, actually. Or at least, that it's strange that he puts so much more credence in my argument than I do myself. Overall, I don't think Catwalk reads all that scummy, but in that particular instance I wanted to "put him in his place" since I hate it when people place poorly founded votes on me. To see Ichabod quote my argument (twice) and use it as the apparent linchpin of his case against Catwalk feels odd. Ichabod, please elaborate if there is more to your case than just this post of mine.