WW11 - Civilization

[Catwalk]

I still don't think my vote on you was poorly founded :neenernee

What's your take on Lewwyn and Mardoc confirming each others as villagers?

[Lewwyn]

What's your take on Lewwyn and Mardoc confirming each others as villagers?

Objection! Leading the witness. Neither Mardoc or I have confirmed the other as Innocent. We have only stated we find each other to be more likely innocent then not.

Catwalk

Probably my last post before I pass out. I considered Slowcheetah or Sareln, but it probably won't matter what I vote since I won't be able to switch around during the frenzy of the final hours.

[Gaspar]

I'll have more later when I've had a few more cups of coffee, but two things:

1. Yes zakalwe, I completely missed your vote on novice as I hit post on my last post last night and headed to bed.
   
   
2. I think Ichabod the reason you keep pinging me really has little to do with your previous play. I think you got a lot of your reputation on WW3 which I neither played nor lurked after burnout from WW2. WW5 & WW6 the only specific thing I recall about you was me losing it on you about meta stuff - as you know, you approach the game very differently as a wolf and you're analyzing very differently. I think WW7 was the first game where I paid heavy attention to your play. And I just think these long posts where you quote everything I say and then give a pithy "but Gaspar wouldn't do this" response just remind me so much of the walls of text you splashed around in WW7. Am I sure of your guilt? No. But I fail to see what it is in your process that has you in the "likely innocent" camp - everything you've done this game has been quite consistent with your wolf play. Maybe that's also consistent with your pre-WW7 villager play, I can't say without more research than I've time for. But I can say that you smell funny.
   

[Ichabod]

The most specific scumtell I've seen is Rowain's MJW vote, shying away from the top three candidates. Pretty weak, I know. Still spinning our wheels, as Gaspar said.

We could lynch Scooter for information but he's defending well, pointing out how he makes a good target for fake suspicion. OTOH, why didn't he get more votes on day 1 then? Because I think those who actually did vote Scooter did it more for information than out of suspicion. I know I did, at least.

Tempting myself to vote Scooter here. I'll stick with scumtells for now, though.

Rowain

I agree that Rowain seems to be more recting to what's being posted than coming up with things himself (which doesn't fit him). The problem is that there's a simple explanation for that, lack of time. But it's worth keeping a look at Rowain.

Well, we can always return to Novice later, and I agree with Gaspar that Scooter is the current elephant in the room, so he would make a good lynch. But as long as we're all just flailing about anyway, I'd like to propose another lynch candidate, who has been at the back of my mind for some time. Let's look back at the final tally for day 1.

Code:

Jkaen (7) - Catwalk Cyneheard Ichabod Scooter Selrahc Tasunke*
Tasunke (5) - Jkaen Lewwyn MJW Sareln Slowcheetah
Scooter (4) - Gaspar Mardoc Novice Zakalwe
MJW (1) - Rowain
Sarelh (1) - Meiz

*Claimed double vote

I don't believe Jkaen was lynched by 6 villagers. Looking at the people who voted for Jkaen, the person that surprises me the most to see there is Ichabod. Something definitely felt off when I saw him posting that he was logging off and leaving his vote on Jkaen. It just really felt wrong, intuitively. I also think he is way too passive and spending too much time making elaborate arguments about very minor points. Yes, he comes off as very reasonable when arguing so carefully, but he is contributing little to the scum hunting. When he does contribute a read, it's frequently just a neutral analysis of someone's behavior, without really concluding whether said behavior is scummy or not. His reluctance to simply cast a vote at the start of day 2 was also mystifying. If he were a villager, he would want to pressure someone. Play styles may vary a little from game to game, but the underlying motivation should remain the same, when you're innocent. For him, even waking up to see day 2 should be a bit of a relief, and he should be eager to make the most of it, rather than shuffling his feet. It all reminds me A LOT about WW7.

I cannot really articulate any stronger evidence than the above, but I have been watching him for a while, and my gut feeling has continued to grow stronger. Since it's just day 2 anyway, I think he'd be a good lynch.

I think your arguments assume knowledge of zakalwe's innocence. Only wolves and zakalwe know his alignment. Given that I don't know it, I don't think my suspicions are unreasonable. I think his post count after 24h stood out, and I found that worth commenting on since we had almost nothing to go on. I did miss his post about being busy, my mention of him possibly being busy was not in reference to that. And on that note, I still find it plausible that having to coordinate with a NAP team (on top of being busy with housework) contributed to his low post count. And no, this is not a major suspicion.

I later commented on him and Selrahc discussing MJW shortly before the lynch, with no votes on MJW and general difficulty agreeing on lynch candidates. I still don't get the argument why a split vote is np, and I found this worthwhile to pursue. I left my vote on him by accident, which he took great issue with. Would it be a safe wolf play to leave the vote on him? Is it any more likely I'd forget to unvote as a wolf than as a villager? I don't think my plays suggest I'm more likely to be wolf than villager, I think they make plenty sense as villager.

It's not. I just thought it was strange that you voted for Jkaen. Why didn't you join us on Scooter?


I was thinking the same thing, actually. Or at least, that it's strange that he puts so much more credence in my argument than I do myself. Overall, I don't think Catwalk reads all that scummy, but in that particular instance I wanted to "put him in his place" since I hate it when people place poorly founded votes on me. To see Ichabod quote my argument (twice) and use it as the apparent linchpin of his case against Catwalk feels odd. Ichabod, please elaborate if there is more to your case than just this post of mine.

No, Catwalk, I'm not sure of Zakalwe's innocence. If we lynch you and you are a wolf, yes, I'll probably strongly believe in Zakalwe's innocence. But right now, I found your comment to be wolflike. If it was directed to MJW, Mardoc or Cyneheard, I'd have thought the same. My vote wasn't based on: Catwalk is attacking innocent Zakalwe. My vote was based on the fact that you seemed to have that vote planned for some time, than you asked a question to make it more like a doubt. After Zakalwe answered you, you said you didn't accept his explanation. So, Zak called on you with a comment that wasn't related to the arguments in your vote and you unvoted based on it, saying that you forgot to take out your vote before.

But if you don't accept his explanation, why unvoting then? Wasn't the discussion about MJW before the day 1 vote the reason why you suspected him?

Zakalwe, my suspicious of Catwalk is based on my perceived difficulties of playing a wolf, like I explained above. I find this to be one of the few concrete ways of finding wolves, because it's almost universal. It's not the same as "Wolf would play more agressively, more defensive, more whatever", because that's a matter of play style. Not knowing who to vote for is the main wolf problem, because you have to fabricate a vote based on things you know are wrong.

A similar reason led to my vote on Jkaen. He kept his roleplay vote on me for a long time after I was being voted for very different reasons, without saying anything about. I considered that a good place for a wolf to hide.

Now, it seems to me that your calling of Catwalk was more based on "your arguments are wrong because you are voting for me" than what I have perceived. So, you can read above why I think it was suspicious.

And about not voting scooter, there's a very simple answer: I thought Jkaen was more suspicious than him. You can see on the post above that novice wanted to vote scooter mainly for information gathering, not for a hard suspicion on him. And that's my general feel of the scooter votes, I can't see the reason behind them. I don't know what was so obvious for you and Gaspar in the scooter vote (for you to keep calling me on not voting for him). If you explain it to me, I can comment if I agree or not.

And to clarify things, I'm not finding you so suspicious Zakalwe. You are psoting less, but you seem to be certain of what you are doing, like in previous villager games. That's even when you are wrong. For example, you suspected me before because I asked a question to you, Gaspar and Novice, that you perceived as trying to break a powerful vote block. Soon after, you voted for novice. Couldn't you have said anything about suspecting novice when I asked you? Why say that it was some sort of evil try to separate the good villagers? And now you are voting for me and novice. The fact that you didn't notice this makes me think you are just reading the facts in your "previously already decided to be right" point of view. Which is what I'd expect of you.

[Catwalk]

Objection! Leading the witness. Neither Mardoc or I have confirmed the other as Innocent. We have only stated we find each other to be more likely innocent then not.

Catwalk

Come on, you practically proposed to one another

In my mind there isn't any more doubt. Mardoc is a villager.

Unvote

I went into this with a hypothesis that Mardoc was a wolf, through research I have decided that that simply isn't true.

Those are bold and very deliberate words, I'm surprised you're downplaying your conclusion after a harmless newbie calls you out on it. To be fair (and hopefully a bit more accurate), Mardoc was more reserved in his assessment of you:

Err, thanks, Lewwyn, I think. Not what I expected to see when I went to bed with both you and Sareln jumping on me! Of course, now I need to hope we've got a baner

Pretty much the only thing he's sure about from what I can tell is my innocence.

Eh, not really. You're on the villager side of things, I'm not going to vote you anytime soon, but it's too early to say I'm 'sure' about anything. Probably too early to say I'm sure until we get the official word from uberfish, actually

Note that Mardoc definitely considers Lewwyn's analysis and statement to be highly sincere. And I stand corrected about Mardoc proposing to Lewwyn, he seems to discreetly distance himself from Lewwyn humping his leg.

Another thing I find interesting is that Mardoc was under very little suspicion (I think) when Lewwyn started his analysis. It makes sense to me to seek to defend someone who's about to hang if you believe he's innocent, but I don't get the point if he's under little scrutiny. I get the feeling Lewwyn wants us to trust Mardoc pretty bad, and I don't find it particularly trustworthy that he keeps assuring us he's being entirely objective (an interesting notion in a WW game, and yeah yeah I'm leading the witness again :neenernee).

Two wolves buddying up would be risky or careless play, so I highly doubt they're both wolves. I do find it plausible that Lewwyn is a wolf seeking to buddy up with villager Mardoc.

[Catwalk]

Another observation:

My current top 4:

Slowcheetah
Sareln
Novice
Zak

..some 4 hours ago, followed by first voting for Cyneheard and then me:

Objection! Leading the witness. Neither Mardoc or I have confirmed the other as Innocent. We have only stated we find each other to be more likely innocent then not.

Catwalk

Probably my last post before I pass out. I considered Slowcheetah or Sareln, but it probably won't matter what I vote since I won't be able to switch around during the frenzy of the final hours.

He was being verbose in this last post, so he did have the time to type out his thoughts. Does it suddenly make me seem a lot more wolflike that I'm accusing him, or is this a convenient time to get rid of a villager he won't be able to cooperate with?

Ichabod, I will adress your points later.

[uberfish]

Votecount

Catwalk (3) - Lewwyn Mardoc Selrahc
Gaspar (2) - Ichabod MJW
Rowain (2) - Novice Slowcheetah
Scooter (2) - Gaspar Rowain
Selrahc (2) - Scotoer Tasunke
Ichabod (1) - Zakalwe
Lewwyn (1) - Catwalk
MJW (1) - Sareln
Slowcheetah (1) - Cyneheard

Not voting - Scummy Wolf

[scooter]

Is there another day left or does the day end in 3.5 hours? Also, who is Scummy Wolf?

[Ichabod]

Is there another day left or does the day end in 3.5 hours? Also, who is Scummy Wolf?

According to the OP now, the day ends on saturday.

[Catwalk]

No, Catwalk, I'm not sure of Zakalwe's innocence. If we lynch you and you are a wolf, yes, I'll probably strongly believe in Zakalwe's innocence. But right now, I found your comment to be wolflike. If it was directed to MJW, Mardoc or Cyneheard, I'd have thought the same. My vote wasn't based on: Catwalk is attacking innocent Zakalwe. My vote was based on the fact that you seemed to have that vote planned for some time, than you asked a question to make it more like a doubt. After Zakalwe answered you, you said you didn't accept his explanation. So, Zak called on you with a comment that wasn't related to the arguments in your vote and you unvoted based on it, saying that you forgot to take out your vote before.

But if you don't accept his explanation, why unvoting then? Wasn't the discussion about MJW before the day 1 vote the reason why you suspected him?

I had a quick look, and I'm starting to suspect that you're fabricating evidence against me. Sequence of posts:
Catwalk: I repeat puzzlement at what I perceived as derailing
zakalwe: responds that he doesn't think he was derailing anything
Catwalk: Not having seen zakalwe's post, I respond to Gaspar and add a vote on zakalwe as I switch away from Tasunke based on Gaspar's points.
Catwalk: I address his response, saying I don't find it credible. Specifically, I insist that the discussion of the vote split was derailed somewhat by bringing up MJW. I again ask for an explanation of why it was not that important to focus the votes more than they were.
zakalwe: points out that scooter brought up MJW, and says that I will have to ask others about why the vote remained split
Catwalk: I accept his explanation and drop the matter, then state that I'll look elsewhere. I forget to unvote.
zakalwe: some 5h later he gets really sad about my vote still being on him. I hadn't posted since then, it's not like I kept talking my head off with my vote on him.

Followed by Ichabod latching on to zak's accusation right afterwards. I don't think your evidence holds up, it doesn't match the sequence of events. Either you're fabricating or you misread.

Zakalwe, my suspicious of Catwalk is based on my perceived difficulties of playing a wolf, like I explained above. I find this to be one of the few concrete ways of finding wolves, because it's almost universal. It's not the same as "Wolf would play more agressively, more defensive, more whatever", because that's a matter of play style. Not knowing who to vote for is the main wolf problem, because you have to fabricate a vote based on things you know are wrong.

A similar reason led to my vote on Jkaen. He kept his roleplay vote on me for a long time after I was being voted for very different reasons, without saying anything about. I considered that a good place for a wolf to hide.

Given that you're 0 for 1 and about to be 0 for 2 if I hang tonight, I think exercising a bit more caution would be in order. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but you sound very sure of your method.

As for the method itself, I don't get it. By your logic, any villager who voices suspicions as he sees them and follows up on them later if suspicious. I think your whole argument is based around disagreeing with my original suspicion of zakalwe, hence considering it to be laying groundwork. I can accept you thinking my argument sucks, but I reject your notion that it's wolfplay by default. My apologies if I come across too strongly with this, but I really think you seem a bit too eager to paint me black.