So much flying by in the thread, and it's all aimed at scooter.
TL;DR [I don't think Scooter is guilty, and suspect Mardoc more than Gaspar in the event of an innocent Scooter]
Looking over the Mason thread, I think the most important thing to remember about the entire thing is that everything is written for Novice's consumption, and the goal of the wolf (Ichabod) is to put Novice on the distinctly wrong track. Additionally, I think we can safely assume that up until about halfway through day2, Ichabod did not expect to die. Therefore anything in that first part of the Mason thread is going to be attempting to put Novice on the wrong track, and won't have any double-blind tricks in it. This would lead me to think that the two
primary suspects that Ichabod puts forward in that section of the thread, Scooter and Gaspar, are less likely to be wolves. However secondary suspects could easily have a wolf or two thrown in in the case that if a wolf goes under Ichabod gains credibility with Novice for having correctly called it.
So I'm a bit leery on hanging scooter based on the Mason thread, since I am pretty convinced that Ichabod's writings there are tailored to get Novice to push for a lynch on another villager, helping to expose Novice to either a friendly village lynch or a baner-less night where he can be killed and Ichabod can claim the other half of the Mason and be a semi-confirmed villager.
As to who I'd rather lynch, I'd say Mardoc. Here's why:
This is the vote for scooter from Day1.
Code:
(4) Scooter: Gaspar, Mardoc, Novice, Zakalwe
Which, based on what we can know absolutely we come to:
Code:
(4) Scooter: Gaspar, Mardoc, [color=Cyan]Novice[/color], [color=Cyan]Zakalwe[/color]
And if we accept my theory that Scooter is being setup posthumously by Ichabod from his attempts to turn Novice, looks like this:
Code:
(4) [color=Cyan]Scooter[/color]: Gaspar, Mardoc, [color=Cyan]Novice[/color], [color=Cyan]Zakalwe[/color]
If we recall day 1 we had 3 candidates in reasonable contention for the final hanging. We had JKaen, Tasunke, and Scooter. If Scooter and JKaen are innocent then there are two possibilities. Possibility 1 is that Tasunke is a wolf, and if that's the case I'm pretty sure the wolves would not be found voting for Tasunke if they could help it. I think Tasunke's rather erratic play isn't very wolf-ish, but it could be that the other wolves looked at his style throughout the rest of the board and decided that it would be too risky to coach him and just let it slide. If MJW has proven anything, it's that RB doesn't punish in-character erratic-ness. The other possibility is that Tasunke is innocent and we got gobsmacked day 1 by the merry-go-round. If that's the case then the wolves definitely want to be split nice and evenly amongst the top 3 candidates and don't much care who goes down, though obviously a stronger, more known quantity like JKaen or Scooter would be preferred.
Therefore, I'd expect then to find a wolf amongst the day 1 scooter voters independent of Tasunke's innocence/guilt
if scooter is innocent, which I think based on my reasoning about how Ichabod would have approached the Mason-thread.
The two left in that group for me are Mardoc and Gaspar. Gaspar helped push for Ichabod's lynch on day 2 pre-Zakalwe reveal,
and is mentioned in the Mason thread as one of Ichabod's preferred targets during the period when Ichabod thought he was safe. Under the same logic that I'm using to temporarily clear scooter then, I think I can also clear Gaspar.
Which leaves this:
Code:
(4) [color=Cyan]Scooter[/color]: [color=Cyan]Gaspar[/color], Mardoc, [color=Cyan]Novice[/color], [color=Cyan]Zakalwe[/color]
Which leads to this:
Mardoc
!
