WW11 - Civilization

[Catwalk]

I've been trying to avoid explaining this because I feared it might help the wolves, but whatever at this point. Basically I was reacting quickly and didn't think through the ramifications of what I had said. At first it seemed useful info. Soon after I wrote that, it occurred to me that you might be baner, which freaked me out a bit (what with Tasunke telling us that his wolf team has a role-blocker) so I quickly changed my mind and hoped wolves didn't put 2 and 2 together like that as well. I'll be shocked if they didn't though.

I believe the reacting quickly part. Unfortunately for you, I also consider that a reasonable explanation for why you'd act the way you did as a wolf. It should be pretty obvious by now that I'm not a baner and that we don't have one, or zakalwe would still be alive. Are you still fishing for my ability?

This kind of thing pisses me off a little bit. When a village is universally wrong on somebody, it's often excused as the person they were wrong on "playing bad." I call BS on that. If you all took off your wolf-tinted glasses and saw how helpful I've actually been and how much info I've drawn out of so many players, you'd understand that. Hopefully you'll recognize it when I'm shown innocent and you have several players who suddenly look REALLY REALLY guilty. JKaen was mis-lyched and we learned almost nothing from it. I'm going to get mislynched and you'll learn a TON from it. Not my fault you guys made the wrong read, but I can certainly help by producing as much info for the town as possible which I believe I've done a good job of.

I do agree that you can be very helpful if you hang innocently, which is why I invited you to discuss the case against Selrahc when you offered us a weird deal.

Sorry, this was unnecessarily hostile. Knew I should've just ignored the thread until the deadline . But I'll explain more calmly. Basically, I can clearly remember 3 games where there was a vig. I know there was more, but I can only specifically remember 3. In 2 of those 3, the vig killed a villager. That's about what you'd expect statistically from randomness. My ability would be no different, so it's an ability that is not a positive and should not seriously be used unless there's a blindingly obvious target. So I saw no reason to ever plan to use my ability.

I don't think this is correct, though. We're better off taking the vig shot than ignoring it. Killing a wolf has far more positive value than the negative value of killing a villager. As long as your odds are a little better than random selection, a vig shot is a good thing.

If you'd started fighting sooner I'd have been more interested in reviewing my vote. Giving up in the face of evidence and then coming back in force later sounds a lot more like wolf play, probably with the objective of misleading us by sprinkling truth among the lies. Ultimately, I think Gaspar's suggestion of going for the most obvious explanations first makes sense. I do consider it likely in this case that you (and Ichabod) made slight mistakes as wolves.

I'm still interested in discussing your cases against Mardoc and Selrahc. You're basically saying that Selrahc has laid low and done nothing useful? I think Selrahc's response to zakalwe's claim makes plenty sense if he's a villager, as he'd know as the only one that zakalwe didn't make this claim to save anyone (since Selrahc was the other target on the block at the time). Votes had already moved away from me. That doesn't prove that he's not a wolf, but it does provide a convincing explanation for his reaction as a villager. So I'd consider that case neutral in terms of his alignment. As for him jumping on me, I'm probably a bad witness as for how reasonable that was. I note that the mostly cleared villagers did not pursue me, so I do think I had another wolf on my tail besides Ichabod. My personal plan for tomorrow is to investigate those players and see how they relate to you and Ichabod.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I think Catwalk and novice should switch off at the last second in case Selrahc is right.

There were only 2 legit vig shoots where someone shot someone who was not a de-facto confirmed werewolf. It was serdoa both times and he guessed wrong in back-to-back games. I would still give a multi-shot vig role to him though. But it is easy to think and say that scooter's role is bad so this is not a major sign of being a wolf. :zzz:

I'll switch off to try and make something happen. Selrahc, gaspar and mardoc are the players I can see myself voting for. Selrahc and Gaspar would never lose to scooter today and everyone knows it. So I will go with:

Mardoc

I doubt anything will happen though. I'll show up 30 minutes before deadline in case something happens. :zzz:

[scooter]

I believe the reacting quickly part. Unfortunately for you, I also consider that a reasonable explanation for why you'd act the way you did as a wolf. It should be pretty obvious by now that I'm not a baner and that we don't have one, or zakalwe would still be alive. Are you still fishing for my ability?

I don't necessarily feel the same way as you about the baner, but it's best not to talk about this now. But yes, my actions would be understandable if I was a villager or wolf. I think that initial question reads pretty neutral.

If you'd started fighting sooner I'd have been more interested in reviewing my vote. Giving up in the face of evidence and then coming back in force later sounds a lot more like wolf play, probably with the objective of misleading us by sprinkling truth among the lies. Ultimately, I think Gaspar's suggestion of going for the most obvious explanations first makes sense. I do consider it likely in this case that you (and Ichabod) made slight mistakes as wolves.

The underlined portion sums up my frustrations: it's just wrong. I gave up when I debunked all the evidence and nobody moved off of me.

[Rowain]

Ability: Each night I can send a name in. If I get night-killed, I get to use my hari-kari abilities or whatever to "take that person with me"

I sent in Selrahc both nights with a message like "yeah no way I'm getting killed tonight but just in case."

My ability would be no different, so it's an ability that is not a positive and should not seriously be used unless there's a blindingly obvious target. So I saw no reason to ever plan to use my ability.

scooter I don't know if you aare wolfish or not but contradictions like this are why you are in your current situation.

[Selrahc]

I don't think this is correct, though. We're better off taking the vig shot than ignoring it. Killing a wolf has far more positive value than the negative value of killing a villager. As long as your odds are a little better than random selection, a vig shot is a good thing.

In fact not.
Ignoring the effects of all vote influencing powers and banes, the wolves needed 5 mislynches to win at the start of the game.

4/17->4/7 after 5 mislynches.

If an unsuccessful vig kill goes off, that number of mislynches will drop to 4.

4/16->4/8 after 4 mislynches.

Very bad. The vig in this setup is only of moderate use.

If we had one extra villager but the same amount of wolves then a vig kill miss would not reduce the allowable mislynches.

4/18->4/8 after 5, or 4/17->4/7 after 5 mislynches.

In that setting, the vig kill is a big plus for the village. Essentially a free random lynch.

So the question for the vig in a game like this is whether or not he trusts his own judgement more than that of the village. Since he essentially steals a lynch day from them. In a game where the kill is "free" it is a much better deal to just hit and hope to hit a wolf.

[Rowain]

Selrahc, gaspar and mardoc are the players I can see myself voting for. Selrahc and Gaspar would never lose to scooter today and everyone knows it. So I will go with:

Mardoc

Your reasoning for those 3?

[MJW (ya that one)]

Your reasoning for those 3?

Gaspar: If Scooter is actually not guilty then he could have had a duel-busing thing going on with Ichabod. I've said a lot about him before.

Selrahc: Pretty much the same reasons as scooter. This assumes scooter is not guilty. If scooter is guilty it is just better to kill scooter now.

Mardoc: Lurking and being passive many people have done this. What put this over the edge is that he is too "happy" and has a poor voting record. What puts this into the number 1 slot is is bad post #516 which looks like it is paraphased from some wolf e-mail as scooter says.

[scooter]

scooter I don't know if you aare wolfish or not but contradictions like this are why you are in your current situation.

Sure it's a contradiction if you ignore context of those two statements, which is what's been happening a lot . It's not though. I said going in I had no serious plans to use the power. However, I also told you guys that when I used it both nights, I attached a message that said "yeah there's no way I'm getting night-killed tonight but here's this just in case"... There was a 98% chance I was not getting night-killed. The 2% chance pretty much would boil down to if Selrahc was a wolf and they decided to get rid of me who was the only real person on his trail. Now, that would be a strong move and would shock me, but that's why it was a just in case thing. Otherwise, there was zero chance the wolves would be dumb enough to actually night-kill someone who had real suspicion on him.

[scooter]

Mardoc: Lurking and being passive many people have done this. What put this over the edge is that he is too "happy" and has a poor voting record. What puts this into the number 1 slot is is bad post #516 which looks like it is paraphased from some wolf e-mail as scooter says.

I actually forgot about that - Mardoc's odd reaction. FYI to everyone - I consider him as top of my list now just a notch above Selrahc.

[Gaspar]

MJW, the only reasonable reason you could conceivably have for me being in your top 3 is the fact that you quite clearly have a crush on me. No matter how much you flirt with me though, I won't sleep with you since I require all my lovers to be able to form complete sentences.