WW11 - Civilization

[Gaspar]

Sad to see you go Rowain , we'll see if we can manage to hang a wolf today.

I think it is quite likely that either Gasper or Mardoc is a wolf, based on the vote breakdown from day 1. Between those two, I think the Ichabod/Novice thread does a good job of showing that Ichabod (Wolf) wanted to hang Gaspar in private, enough so that when choosing, I choose Mardoc.

Mardoc, am I wrong?

Could someone (since both you and Tasunke used this logic) please explain how my and Mardoc's guilt/innocence are linked? I'm not seeing it.

Personally, I largely don't get the attempts to throw Mardoc under the bus here - he's seemed very Mardocian to me. While I'm in no way suggesting that means he's innocent, I just don't see where he's a top tier target at the moment. I'm a lot more interested in MJW, slowcheetah and Cyneheard.

[Sareln]

It showed up in my scooter-defense post initially. The gist looks like this:

Code:

Day 1 Vote:
(07) [color=Cyan]Jkaen [/color]- Catwalk, Cyneheard, [color=Red]Ichabod[/color], [color=Cyan]Scooter[/color], Selrahc, Tasunke*
(05) Tasunke - [color=Cyan]Jkaen[/color], Lewwyn, MJW, [color=Cyan]Sareln[/color], Slowcheetah
(04) [color=Cyan]Scooter [/color]- Gaspar, Mardoc, [color=Cyan]Novice[/color], [color=Cyan]Zakalwe[/color]
(01) MJW - [color=Cyan]Rowain[/color]
(01) [color=Cyan]Sareln [/color]- [color=Cyan]Meiz[/color]

Pretty even spread. I personally suspect that Tasunke is probably innocent. Often wrong, but innocent nonetheless since he used his extra vote power when he didn't absolutely need to to stay alive (and unless there was a modern age restriction on it, could probably shave a mislynch off for team wolf and therefore super-valuable). He's reading to me more chaotic newbie than wolf at this point anyways.

Given that personal suspicion, that means that on day 1 we had 3 villagers up for lynch. That means the wolves didn't care who died so their primary goal shifts then to looking innocuous. The best way is to make sure they're not clumped up one person at the end of the day.

In shorter terms: I think Tasunke is innocent, therefore it is quite likely the wolves tried to split their votes amongst the top 3 candidates by day's end.

Then, that means that I expect to find at least 1 wolf amongst the scooter voters; probably only one since the voter pool is so small and therefore the wolves would likely be leery to have two wolves on scooter at days end. We know the ID's of Zakalwe and Novice beyond a shadow of the a doubt. That leaves you and Mardoc.

Picking between you and Mardoc, I think Mardoc is much more likely since Ichabod kept pushing Novice to try and lynch you.

That's pretty much the reasoning in a nutshell.

[Gaspar]

Logic's not terrible. From my experience that level of coordination is less likely. Also, remember that the day one lynch was really between Jkaen and Tasunke, scooter was mostly a protest vote from zak and I who believed both of the top candidates likely innocent. novice joined us because he wanted to test us and Mardoc joined us because he had no leads and decided he trusted our judgement more than the average. The majority of the lynch action was on the top two and I suspect that is where the wolves would have been, since there's always a stigma attached to voting for a "no chance" candidate.

That said, even as I write that, I see how that could make Mardoc a decent candidate. Me, zak and novice is an easy wall to hide behind. I'll keep an open mind on the subject.

[Lewwyn]

I sincerely disagree. Given how strong the village's* opinion was of Scooter's guilt, doesn't it seem logical to let the village go ahead and take all the blame for railroading Scooter? In other words let Novice, Zak, Gaspar and Mardoc get persecuted as possible wolves based on the spread? Exactly what you're doing now.

How would you know Sareln? How would you know what the wolves would do here? Ichabod kept trying to say Scooter was innocent. Obviously, he was trying to set us up and/or buddy up to Scooter and he succeeded. AS a wolf would you befriend the villager that the other villagers suspected so that he would defend you and /or be taken down if you were caught?

I simply don't see it as an infallible certainty that the wolves need to have a vote on Scooter in Day 1. Thats the ENTIRETY of the case against Mardoc? It's ridiculous. Roland got me lynched as a villager in WW3 based on his vote tracking guesses like this one. You can't argue this oversimplified one day vote pattern. I'm astounded that this is gaining traction. Not astounded that MJW is leading the charge.

*And yes I realize I'm saying the village, of which I am a part, which could be misconstrued which is why I'm mentioning it here.

[Selrahc]

MJW

I simply don't see it as an infallible certainty that the wolves need to have a vote on Scooter in Day 1.

Yep.
If that premise falls, it seems like the argument does too. Since I've seen games where the wolves haven't engaged in uniform distribution, I don't think this argument is terribly good.

There is no way I could have extactly guessed Jkaen's role. So my role-claim is real. It makes no sense to have if I am a wolf unless there is a vig or something (scooter's "vig" role is so hard to trigger that it is not good enough).

1. There is no reason to assume that there isn't a vig. Catwalk has some mysterious significant role. Scooter already had a vig.

2. You're using this as a meta-shield, and you've been doing that since day one. It seems to me like it was the entire reason for you revealing the role. Since the reveal utterly trashes it's value for the village, it looks to me like you're attempting to use it solely as a meta-shield against lynches. Something that makes the most sense as a *priority* for a wolf. Since it was something you revealed as your first post in the thread, it seems like it was a big priority.

[uberfish]

Votecount

Mardoc (3) - MJW Rowain Sareln
Slowcheetah (3) - Cyneheard Lewwyn Mardoc
MJW (2) - Gaspar Selrahc

Not voting (3) - Catwalk Novice Slowcheetah

[Selrahc]

Since it was something you revealed as your first post in the thread

In fact no. The *first* post was to say "I'm pretty sure there is a vig". Because you are a wolf with an immunity to night kills power, and you're a bad enough wolf that you accidentally revealed that thought immediately after you had it.

[novice]

2. You're using this as a meta-shield, and you've been doing that since day one. It seems to me like it was the entire reason for you revealing the role. Since the reveal utterly trashes it's value for the village, it looks to me like you're attempting to use it solely as a meta-shield against lynches. Something that makes the most sense as a *priority* for a wolf. Since it was something you revealed as your first post in the thread, it seems like it was a big priority.

This is the main issue regarding MJW.

I think I'm going to have to vote him despite his meta-shield, he's just too antitown.

MJW

[novice]

Votecount

Mardoc (3) - MJW Rowain Sareln
Slowcheetah (3) - Cyneheard Lewwyn Mardoc
MJW (2) - Gaspar Selrahc

Not voting (3) - Catwalk Novice Slowcheetah

Is Rowain voting for Mardoc, Uberfish?

[Lewwyn]

Is Rowain voting for Mardoc, Uberfish?

He's ALIVE!!!