I read through most of Tasunke's posts in the thread, since he's been my number one suspect from the beginning.
My net result is: I don't know. On the one hand, he's very inconsistent, going from what I think are actually some pretty sharp analysis, to posts where my first reaction is . He also fluctuates hugely in the amount he's posting; hasn't posted much of anything today or yesterday, but is number two for posts in the thread as a whole. Inconsistency seems to me like a sign of wolfishness, reacting to an internal censor (or an external one?).
On the other hand, there are still several posts where I get strong villager vibes. The one where he accused four wolves on night 1, his reactions around his near-miss hanging, these seem pretty authentic to me. Less of these lately, as he's switched to giving votes without explanations.
Net result - Tasunke, I'm going to let you be for a while. Even if you are a wolf, we can get you later. If you're a villager, I strongly implore you to come back to being vocal, so I don't regret my decision here.
@Lewwyn's argument - I just can't see it. I might believe that Slowcheetah is a wolf, ready to cast MJW under the bus. But Selrahc's actually got some good points - MJW claiming the feud was extremely anti-village, for one thing. MJW leaving Sareln alone, too. MJW being powered up by Day 1(which I do believe after Jkaen's role reveal) actually helps explain how Jkaen got lynched - the wolves wanted it! I don't think Selrahc could come up with this much on a target if he were a wolf.
I think, in addition, that MJW has managed to make himself the center of attention at this time. Lynching him could provide a lot more info on Tasunke, on Gaspar, on Selrahc, maybe Lewwyn.
which of my posts to you consider to be sharp analysis?
Dang it, you made me go through that again. Anyway, it's not always a full post, but here are the parts of your posts that make sense to me.
To summarize, for anyone not interested in reading all the quotes:
On balance - your assessments of yourself make sense to me. And it's unfortunately very true that the more *anyone* posts, the more suspicion they receive.
You also picked out some villagers well before I was able to.
Tasunke Wrote:with Scooter and Novice as medium possibility of villager,
and Meitz as possible villager.
That being said, its possible that a great number of people want to lynch me ... but I'd like to be able to help a more seasoned villager get at least 1 or 2 days worth of lynchings on possible wolves before I end up dying due to any number of reasons (both villager and wolf it seems)
Tasunke Wrote:This being my first forum WW game, of course I will make mistakes earlier on. I saw that by making numerous posts, people began to suspect me as a wolf. Really felt like a sheep in wolf's clothing at that point, as I was not entirely certain what made me read like a wolf, other than posting a lot.
Will I die by returning to my active state of posting a lot? Perhaps, but at least I will die doing what I think is right.
Tasunke Wrote:As I mentioned in one of my posts, i was much more worried about being Vig killed than being killed by a wolf.
Either way it equals dead at the end of night, therefore assuming a vig kills me, tonight was my last chance to state my opinion.
Tasunke Wrote:Agreed, it would have been a lot less easy to go along with MJW's deception if Jkaen had mustered some sort of normal, or at least more feasible, defense.
His role claim, and claim of innocence, seem to be accurate ... however his lack of a defense, either logical or chaotic or otherwise, seems to indicate that he did not have enough time to play.
And ultimately, I would have had a hard choice of which innocent to kill in order to avoid dying
Luckily however, I was still tricked by MJW and Jkaen's own actions into thinking that Jkaen was a wolf, so I wouldn't have to make the hard choice between killing a poster and giving MJW vig immunity ...
Tasunke Wrote:Yep, quite wrong.
In fact I became a bit ... is the term 'gunshy'? As I was hoping people would start to vote Lewwyn (and initially Mardoc), however I guess it just didn't stick.
Therefore, with myself on the chopping block (being highly promoted by Lewwyn), I discovered that the more I talked, the more likely I was to die.
My only real chance of making it through Day 2 was if Jkaen turned out to be a wolf, although really at the time my primary concern was just making it through day 1.
So first there was the glee that came from not dying, and then came the resignation that, since Jkaen was a villager, I will be the next to die. So I'm just gonna try and run this baby dry all the way up to the chopping block (aka have fun while I'm still alive).
Although I suppose its possible I won't live through the night ... but honestly I doubt that will happen, as whomever the wolves are, they'd rather lynch me during the day while killing a real threat at night. So likely not me, as I am seeming to have the tendency of convincing people the exact opposite of what I am trying to convince.
I'll still try to keep myself a bit more sane though ... I mean it can get pretty crazy not havign a watch that counts the seconds, and trying to wait until the minute is almost over before voting, can do things to ya. (reminds me of some cool simul turn games in the past ... only then you had the seconds displayed for ya )
So while I admit I was a bit caught up in the moment, I'll keep my daytime posts a bit more sane, and have some real fun before my deathbed
Tasunke Wrote:To answer Zakalwe, there was already some pressure on Slowcheetah so I wanted to apply pressure to Selrahc instead.
About his assumptions, I think Mardoc's analysis did make sense. Just because we are under the assumption that the wolves intended to split the vote (if we decide to make even that an assumption), it doesn't necessarily mean that either Scooter or I are innocent.
I mean *I* know I'm innocent, but for the village's sake we probably shouldn't assume things we don't need to.
I say 'things we don't need to' because I believe on must first make assumptions to then test a Hypothesis, or test those assumptions. First assume that X is Y, and then find instances where this could not be the case.
I think that is all for now.
[SPOILER]I am trying to become better at this 'WW forum' style of play. The switch is difficult to say the least, so for now I'll simply try to not say anything stupid. I WILL note however, that many people are starting to write direct or indirect wolf lists ... right after posters called my wolf list pretty stupid. Maybe its a subtle thing, I dunno, or some type of group thought, or maybe I'm just that different. Im not sure at the moment. But I will try to integrate 'real data' that I can then present in posts, in the future. For now though I think I can at least still talk with my vote, so that I can contribute while trying to figure out what you people are looking for in a post. I'm gonna try reading old WW threads (when I have the time) in order to learn what good posts are .... however active threads are far more interesting to me, so will probably do the majority of my learning from this thread.
Tasunke Wrote:I honestly don't know whether Naming my Starting Tech and Power would help the village more or the wolves more.
I think I'd want to be more certain
Tasunke Wrote:On second thought ... don't answer that until 'tomorrow'
Tasunke Wrote:Isn't it sort of bad to reveal this kind of stuff during the Night Phase?
(I mean I revealed my tech at Day 2 ... couldn't yall wait till Day 3?)
That kind of post is why I think Mardoc is reading very villagerish, probably more so than Gaspar. I had a few issues with some things, but I'm sure everybody has some slips.
Basically, I'm reading him the same as Rowain. I've not necessarily thought everything was right, and there have been some little not perfectly villagerish moments, but the broad strokes all make sense and the general play seems good.
I certainly think he deserves a better argument against him than the "Wolves must have voted for Scooter" argument.
I'm going to throw a quick vote on slowcheetah and get back to my paper. Sorry for not being around, but I've been working almost non-stop on this crap for the last two days and I'm on the finishing stretch now. I'll have time to discuss tomorrow well ahead of the lynch. slowcheetah is my top candidate (mainly because I just can't see his earlier accusations of me as unguided villager play), but I'm open to discussing other candidates. I also find his accusations against MJW to be uncredible.
Why is my vote on MJW seen as uncredible when Selrahc's isn't? I agreed with his points, particularly the one about MJW hiding behind his power. I probably would have made that one myself if I hadn't been beaten to it.
Catwalk I don't see why my earlier accusation wasn't villager play either? I made an accusation based on the fact that I thought you hadn't been doing much to help the village because you were concentrating on attacking Lewwyn. You know Lewwyn isn't responsive to you (and can get away with it because it's so consistent) so it was pretty much wasting time. Since then you have made some good points, so clearly my theory was wrong. It was early day 2, there wasn't exactly to much more evidence to go on.
Almost everybody else has, so I might as well stick up my own list.
Top ten: Innocent to Guilty.
1. Novice.
Obvious. Any other thing is crazy conspiracy theory. (What if he is a possessed that doesn't know he is a possessed and so works to make the village win, but only wins with the wolves!?!)
2. Mardoc.
Getting a solid and consistent villager read.
3. Gaspar.
A little restrained for Gaspar, but seems solidly villagerish.
4. Tasunke.
Mardoc's recent analysis reminds me why I was seeing him villager. I think he is just unfortunately rambling in his thought processes and it leads him into deathtraps.
5. Sareln.
As others have pointed out, Ichabod play gives some credit. Very quiet, but seems pretty helpful when he does post. Even if I don't always agree.
6. Catwalk.
I still find him a little suspicious. Less and less so at the moment though.
7. Lewwyn
I was getting a villager read, until today.
8. Slowcheetah
A bit contrived at times. Quite quiet, which fits a lurker wolf pattern.
9. Cyneheard
Barely even playing? Constantly distracted? GES wolfplay hallmarks.
10. MJW.
11. MJW.
12. MJW.
Almost everything he has done seems based around wolfplay. I can't even find the germ of ideas that normally come from MJW. He is the only player I'm getting solidly wolfy vibes from, and I think they come backed with evidence.
. He also fluctuates hugely in the amount he's posting; hasn't posted much of anything today or yesterday, but is number two for posts in the thread as a whole. Inconsistency seems to me like a sign of wolfishness, reacting to an internal censor (or an external one?).
)
