WW11 - Civilization

[MJW (ya that one)]

Your role sucks as a wolf assuming no vig. Its mediocre with just scooter's vig. Its stronger if there's another additional "normal" vig which I think is still pretty likely. Its also strong exactly as you used it - a metagame piece.

As a villager, its a mediocre role once known. But it still provides night-kill immunity. Would have been much stronger in Jkaen's hands, as he's a far more likely wolf target than you, who never gets night killed unless you're a power role since your behavior is so often destructive to the village.

Your probably right that there is other vig causing my metashield to not be so hot. I just noticed that the roles come in pairs for certain roles-- for example there was 2 vote blockers, 2 crippled seers and 2 trigged bulletproofs.

Using as metagame piece does not seem what Uberfish had in mind ether way. I would guess that Uberfish made this game thinking I would not use my role as a metagame piece. So if you are asking is 'MJW likely to be a wolf' from metagame view--uberfish did not consider using my role for metagame piece--so it would not influence the way uberfish would make the game.

I've learned that I can get tried of using the word metagame.

[novice]

I didn't have time to play last night so I just threw out a vote on Slowcheetah without having even read the latest posts. I've caught up now, and I agree with this:

I'm less convinced of MJW's guilt, more convinced of Slowcheetah's guilt, more convinced of Selrahc's guilt and more convinced of Cyneheard's guilt.

I'll change my vote to Selrahc. Just to mention one concrete thing, Zak needed to prod Selrahc on day 2 for him to change his vote to Ichabod, even though this was a natural self-preservation move for Selrahc.

[Catwalk]

Paper is done! I'll read through the exchanges over the next few hours and contribute some. novice, how convinced are you of Lewwyn's innocence?

[Selrahc]

Just to mention one concrete thing, Zak needed to prod Selrahc on day 2 for him to change his vote to Ichabod, even though this was a natural self-preservation move for Selrahc.

As I remember it, at the time there were 2 wagons below mine. None of which had arguments posted close to the lynch time. I don't think Ichabod was any more natural to leap to than Gaspar, and I don't think either would have saved me unless someone was willing to argue for it. So I waited for a cue.

Obviously the Ichabod lynch doesn't really count in my credit. I was on the block. But I don't think I can be fairly said to be reluctant to go after him.

[Lewwyn]

I'll change my vote to Selrahc. Just to mention one concrete thing, Zak needed to prod Selrahc on day 2 for him to change his vote to Ichabod, even though this was a natural self-preservation move for Selrahc.

I'm willing to vote for Selrahc. I think we also have to take into account that Scooter's main target was Selrahc and Scooter is actually really helpful as an innocent. Better now that he's confirmed. Also Rowain believed in Selrahc's guilt. I think we're overlooking the tech scan. Selrahc never said what his tech was until after Rowain had made it clear that he knew there were people with techs outside of Civ4. I think there's a really good chance that Selrahc WAS provided a cover tech and that he didn't use it because he figured he'd already been scanned. We just let it go because he didn't lie even though it was obviously "one of these things is not like the other".

Selrahc

[Catwalk]

Problem with the tech argument is that Ichabod had Optics (or was it Compass?). I'm not opposed to going after Selrahc, but I'm not sure how useful the tech argument is until we know more. If he's a villager with a non-Civ4 tech, his reluctance to claim it would be understandable.

[Catwalk]

I would like to know if anyone has information about the missionary news uberfish gave us earlier. I don't think it was flavour, more likely related to an ability. If noone wants to own up to it, we can probably assume the NAP did something. Sounds a lot like recruiting, although I'm hesitant to bring up that can of worms. But I guess I just did

[slowcheetah]

[QUOTES]The followers of other religions promptly decided that this was a really bad idea (-4) and a series of crusades was launched to destroy the heathens. Not having bothered to send out missionaries to convert other nations and get allies,

The Native American Civilization has been eliminated![/quote]

Reads like flavour to me, the only thing I can think of it hinting at is that Zakalwe didn't recieve baner protection (an ally) that night. But that's hardly new information.

[Lewwyn]

I wanted to go back and look at the scooter lynch day, because i remembered a post by Selrahc that was incredibly suspicious and was one of the things that really got me going. But first here's a quote from Scooter against Selrahc:

In short: he's played things exactly how I'd play things as a wolf. He picked someone who didn't seem particularly guilty but frequently put their foot in their mouth (you) to target. That's safe. When you role-claimed he literally had no other ideas which was pretty convenient really. Even him waffling over voting against me was just classic wolf stuff - you go along with the innocent lynch (he did vote for me happily), but you waffle a little bit to make it seem like "oh fine you guys convinced me and I have no other ideas"... I actually think immediately jumping on Ichabod without even stopping to question it or think it over is fairly suspicious because only a wolf would know for a fact that Zakalwe was telling the truth. Selrahc sure seemed to know. Day 1 he kept his head down which again is the smart wolf thing to do because day1 village play is normally .

Basically, I can't think of a SINGLE new thing Selrahc has contributed to this village yet in this game. That's really hard to believe considering he's played werewolf probably way more than all of us. For those who haven't been around as long - Selrahc was the person who brought werewolf to RB - sponsoring the first every game and playing quite well in other werewolf games here since then. I have a hard time believing that Selrahc the villager would be so unhelpful, but I absolutely believe Selrahc the werewolf would play things exactly how he has so far - keep your head down day 1, pick on easy targets day 2 (Catwalk), then follow the bandwagon day 3 (me). I've been calling him on it almost constantly since day 1, but it's bore repeating.

I'll answer whatever questions anyone has for me, but I'm actually pretty ok with being lynched because I'm a little tired of this. This game is much more fun when I play werewolf. I find that side I don't mind the heat because it's the challenge of beating people who are correctly on to you. It's much less fun when you're village and have done a lot to help the village and stupid villagers are unable to see that.

I very nearly changed my vote at this point! I almost thought Scooter has to be innocent after this. But I couldn't shake my feelings that Scooter was evil. If you don't believe me, believe Scooter.

Next the pots by Selrahc that I found disturbing:

Wow. Near consensus on Scooter? I'd been reading him as suspicious, but I was partially attributing it to natural resentment at his hounding me.

If you all are willing, I can definitely back a Scooter lynch. But I am worried about this broad consensus. Are the wolves hanging him out to dry to gain credibility, or are they laughing at a dogpile on a villager?

Rowain's ability is now much more useful. Abilities are a much more interesting thing than starting techs. I'm still not sure if anything incriminating will come up, and it could definitely be a wolf ability. But his play now makes sense to me, and I think he has played things pretty well all in all.

He's breaking in with the "near consensus" thing setting up his out. I think innocent Selrahc would have opted to vote away from Scooter to actually follow up on what he said. Later he uses this idea + the idea that Scooter could kill him at lynch with "vengeance" to switch his vote off Scooter. I really think it was a ploy to appear active, concerned and villagery on a day when the villagers were so convinced of Scooter's guilt it didn't matter what anyone did.

To me it just reads like a wolf with a cheat sheet. "You guys really want to shoot yourselves in the foot? Okay I'll help. But on second thought I better have plausible deny ability."


I know I'm making the case about Selrahc and I have another whole case against Slowcheetah but here's a snippet from slowcheetah in a similar vein:

I've only been browsing through and don't have time for a thorough thread inspection now, but my gut feeling tells me that we shouldn't focus too much on conspiracy theories right now.

Zakalwe was confirmed innocent by the kill, novice is pretty much confirmed innocent and I would agree with Catwalk's point that Gaspar appears almost in the clear.

I still have suspicions of Catwalk, and his mysterious power that he hasn't revealed fully. But I think there are far better targets currently.

I agree with Gaspar and Novice that scooter's softness on Ichabod makes him the most appealing target. However, I still have suspicions on Selrahc (I don't think he has offered many ideas) and just because Ichabod was a wolf and that saved him, doesn't indicate he wasnt. I also think Tasunke is acting pretty oddly, but random splurges of ideas appear to be his pattern elsewhere on the site.

Here he waffles on the vote explains both sides then agrees with Gaspar and Novice, basically buddying up. For me the kicker is the whole "I don't have any real info because I'm not caught up, but I have all these suspicions on these people anyway!" This is similar to most of his posts. There is a pattern of lurking, the showing up when called upon, and then disappearing again. He's doing a great job as the lurking scum.

So as I said I'm willing to lynch either Selrahc or Slowcheetah. But we do need consensus! If we split the vote on them we'll end up lynching another innocent.

[Sareln]

Unvote [Strike]Mardoc[/Strike]

Impaired, what follows is thoughts. There will be no vote from me tonight.

• I understand how it's not as given as thought that there was a wolf on scooter day 1
  
• Day 1 voting info is useful, but day 2 & day 3 not so much due the conclusiveness of the swings.
  
• MJW is still striking me as villager with his usual... um, original thinking.
  
• Mardoc is looking pretty innocent to me as well now too, or he's got balls of steel to do the "who me" routine successfully.
  
• Recruiting in this setup strikes me as OMGWTFBBQ broken in this setup and want to discount it out of hand Catwalk.
  
• That's it for tonight.
  

*thud*