I think it makes a lot of sense that nothing has happened, it being a Friday night and what not.
Selrahc, after reviewing the evidence, 'other' than the conspiracy theory that it wasn't actually you that used your power
(but someone else under your orders), it seems that your 'vote block' ability claim seems valid.
So reviewing the evidence, assuming the likely event that your power is indeed a vote blocker and not a role blocker ...
I am now deciding to do some reasearch to see if my assessment of your 'self preservation wolf play' proved accurate.
(I have this saved on a Word document, so I am currently doing an assessement)
Selrahc Wrote:The "Elf Feud" was an attempt to avoid being night killed and being lynched, by publicly making
myself an inconvenient target. While ultimately being ready to vote with the wolves in a close game situation.
By immediately revealing yourself and creating a public feud... you're actually mirroring the situation precisely. In the
Elf feud the villagers really would have been better off immediately killing me, since I rigged the situation to be a wolf
by another name.
By identifying yourself and your feud mate, you might be doing the same.
I would not be averse to lynching MJW right now.
and then MJW decided to distract us immediately with these sentiments
MJW (ya that one) Wrote:If roles are truely random then there has to be a killer other than the NAP. Otherwise all
night kill block abilites would be out because they would be useless if given to the NAP. The nap might have a vig on there
side; so they might be able to double kill for one day.
My abilty would be hard to trigger so I don't think it is that useful. So I think the metagame issues around the abilty are
more powerful then the abilty itself.
I vote Cryneheard. How would he know that my play was foolish unless he was a member of the
NAP? He could think I am a misguided villager but then he would not want to vote for me. He would just ignore everything I
said.
Looking back over the thread there is only 2 things that need to be said. I agree with Catwalk that Tsaki's posts looks
like filler trying to bump up my post count.
I also don't take Scooter's idea seriously. I don't think I can get lyched today. There are too many players who don't post
a lot and new players. Someone is always going to just eat it the first day. I think Scooter came up with that idea before
the game started though so it does not say anything on weather or not he is a wolf.
and
MJW (ya that one) Wrote:This is another filler post.
Selrahc my abilty is not strong enough now to jusitfy killing Jkaen. I can live with a divided france. Because I will not
be pusing for jkaen's death unlike you I think there will be no elf feud. I have to win the game normally. Lyching Jkaen
if he is a villager does not help me at all now that I have role-claimed.
and then this
MJW (ya that one) Wrote:He thought about it. I don't think he would think about doing it like that normally if he
was a villager. He if was a villager he would think about killing me would for being annoying not for poor play.
If I where a NAP member my play, form cryneheard's view, may have been a clever attempt to get cover and not foolish. The
whole idea of lyching ANYONE for "OMGUS" is a poor one. I think it is poor enough that cryneheard does not belive in it and
is just trying to fill up space.
Post #MJW-1 could have easily been cross posted with Selrahc's post, with a hefty does of MJW-meta sense and an ending
paragraph full of truthiness.
Post #MJW-2 first draws attention towards myself (away from him) and then he claims that he won't be pushing for Jkaen's
death. Something that he then does a complete 180 on before the 72 hour day is over.
Post #MJW-3 he admits that his early game move is far less foolish from a wolf perspective, and I am reminded of Gaspar's
note that MJW knows how to play a power role well.
Something about power roles ... IF a wolf managed to try and kill MJW, he would have been a confirmed villager. This would
have been the BEST POSSIBLE play for this role, and I would even go so far as to think MJW would try to make his play
forward (after Jkaen died) to try and BAIT a wolf to kill him. (and reverse if Jkaen was alive and MJW had died).
However, he did none of these things. Instead, he revealed 'extremely' early- in a supposed attempt to stop an elf fued ...
while later he actively pushed for Jkaen's head. He then had the meta-confidence to admit later that it would have been a
good wolf play. Perhaps he wanted to prove (from a meta post-game perspective) that he could play well.
Now, onto Selrahc's next post.
Actually, a few more posts from MJW
MJW (ya that one) Wrote:Are you a native english speaker scooter? Yet means he WILL vote me. He would use the word
MAY instead.
Tasunke freaking out by spamming three posts in a row feels something like a nOObie villager would do. His posts seem to be
truthful to me. Something is off though. But I just can not justify voting him right now.
I think lewwyn and Scooter are acting in character. Scooter is being his usual thick-headed self and lewwyn willing to
aggersively guess who the wolfs are.
Cyneheard post's don't seem truthful to me. I think he is not getting angry and not attacking people. He was also willing
to conclude that Tasunke was villagerish too soon before his triple post. So I will vote Cyneheard. I
don't have any feelings of wolfishness on anyone else expect for maybe Tasunke.
Here he plays a post with 80% truth in it, but still leaves a grain of doubt towards me so that he can save me for a late-
game lynch (if he wants).
----------------------
and another MJW post
MJW (ya that one) Wrote:Hmmm... do you think we can work together somehow?
Another reason I don't like cyneheard is that his post pointing out that 9 people have not done anything was very half-
assed. As a former wolf I know that wolfs hurry to post something as quickly as possible; even if it something silly. The
reason why 9 people did not post is that this game took forever to get started thanks to uberfish.
here he is talking directly to Jkaen (who just voted for Ichabod), to try and get him to vote for Cyneheard instead.
I'll admit that this sort of behavior Day 1 could swing either way, but I still find this quite interesting.
--------------------------------------------------------
Now onto Selrahc's next post!
Selrahc Wrote:I have something similar. Although it isn't specifically labelled a technology.
Since it relates to my ability, I was assuming it was just fluff.
I'd agree with that. You've had some... interesting.. ideas in previous games. You're being a lot more restrained here.
Calmer Catwalk is less of a challenge to people's sanity, but it's definitely an odd change of character. Possibly it's due
to a conscious effort to lay low and avoid suspicion. Maybe it's not.
On MJW and the potential feud.
During the Elf Feud, my win condition was based around getting Arendel lynched. Night kill was no good. So what I attempted
to do(after my initial lynch attempt floundered) was push for a close wolf win, while identifying myself and my target as
probably not worth wasting a night kill on. A potential misstep I made was aggressively being non-helpful, and it almost
got the village to lynch me on a few occasions.
If MJW has been given a similar role, then I think he could be following a similar gameplan. Get the information out in the
thread early, so that no wolves kill his target and spoil his game. Then bide his time, casually pushing for a wolf win,
but doing it in a low key way. As soon as the wolf numbers hit the point that they can team up with MJW and get the kill,
then he strikes.
I would like to hear if JKaen has any insight on this situation. If he heard nothing about feuds and bonus powers, then I
think MJW is potentially a ticking time bomb.
Here he *indirectly* admits that he does not have a BTS vanilla tech, and then goes on to nudge Catwalk.
At least as far as this post, I don't see the 'hard push' for Catwalk that Selrahc claims, but I do see an attempt to at
least get his foot out there in terms of finger pointing.
Then further elaboration on his 'elf fued' analysis, under the assumption that MJW could claim victory from Jkaen's death.
As we now know that MJW doesn't 'win' with Jkaen dying, we at least know that the elf fued wasn't the typical one it was in
WW 10. As far as Selrahc's postulations ... Im not sure. I think MJW is clearly lying here that he doesn't want to see
Jkaen fall, but whether its for metal-shield + night immunity or if its because he is a wolf, and would consider a Villager
with this power to be WAY TOO DANGEROUS TO BE LEFT ALIVE.
Personally I think the latter is more likely, due to his mentioning that two villagers to have the ability would be OP,
meaning that he thinks Jkaen having that ability would be OP (from the perspective of a wolf).
-------------------------------------------
Lets look for another Selrahc post, shall we?
Selrahc Wrote:Just this then: Does your role have any sort of mention of MJW? Don't give out role info on
capabilities, rewards etc., I'd just like to know if this is entirely one sided like the elf feud, which makes it more
dangerous for the village.
and
Selrahc Wrote:It was illegal for me as a "Lyncher", to prevent me from claiming seer and railroading my target. MJW
has proved that he doesn't have that clause on his role, lessening the odds that he has a similar role.
Minor posts, really. Possible co-wolf trying to dig up intel on Jkaen (probably not, but possible). And the second possible
co-wolf diciphering MJW's intent with his "multi-vig claim". Although its probably just Selrahc being insightful on his
own.
These posts make me think that Selrahc *could* have just been doing some co-wolf banter, although seeing that Selrahc
seemed to be the first person to put 'non OMGUS' pressure on MJW I think this is unlikely (still possible, but unlikely).
----------------------------------
Then here is Gaspar stirring up some panic
Gaspar Wrote:All kidding aside I think that the idea of MJW with power to kill multiple targets is absolutely
terrifying. If we don't get a strong read on a wolf before long I think we should lynch.
I also find this claim highly suspect, we've never had a multiple shot vig and that includes larger games. We call a player
who can kill multiple nights a wolf, not a vigilante.
MJW
Because in Soviet Russia, crazy lying ploys screw you.
Did he really misread what MJW was saying? Possible, but I'm unsure. I know I misread it, but then I'm new
Either way, it follows with 2 more votes for MJW, and then Selrahc arrives to correct everyone.
Selrahc Wrote:MJW isn't actually claiming to be a multi-shot vig. That's an arbitrary implausible role claim to
prove he has the *capability* to lie about role claims.
could be co-wolf, or just insightful Selrahc.
-----------------------------------
And then here Ichabod comes along with a VERY interesting post.
Ichabod Wrote:Well, this argument was one of the ones that led to the only wolf lynch (Selrahc) in the only game
Mardoc played, if I remember correctly. So maybe it's some kind of selective memory.
I agree that the argument is neutral, though. In fact, what made Selrahc's argument more suspicious was the fact that he
directed it to the wolves too, trying to distance himself. Scooter didn't do it.
Zakalwe is notably way less active during the weekends. I'd expect his post count to go up during the week, though.
Anyway, I'm voting for Lewwyn. This post doesn't sound like Lewwyn to me:
Lewwyn unvoting? I'd expect him to be wanting to vote like 5 times, not needing to look back and see who is the most
suspicious. Anything holding you back?
I'm not sure about previous Ichabod play, but this alone makes Lewwyn a bit less suspicious.
Could it be a wolf-bluff for cover? Yes its possible.Its very possible. But for now I will say that it DOES make Lewwyn a
bit less suspicious, and I think this is something worth considering.
---
and then MJW doing the logical and expected explanation of his vig claim (after giving Selrahc a chance to do so)
MJW (ya that one) Wrote:
I did lie about being a muitple vig. Read my posts people.
I really don't think my style is bad. You should have been lyched the second I died in ww2 scooter. I find gaspar and
scooter to be wolfish to suggest lyching me over someone like sarlen. I also think Gaspar's idea of killing me because I am
muiltple-vig to be very weak. I don't think he is being sincere. A muiltple-vig is so strong that you would almost never
want to lych him. If you look at my record I'm pretty good at hunting wolfs.
There really is no way to justify cyneheard's post about no-one posting. I really can not take this game seriously if
cyneheard does not get killed for that. I'm not really intersted in playing or defending myself anymore.
March 6 is pretty far from now so zak not posting a lot is not too bad. In fact he would likely to be posting more if he
was a wolf to stay in the middle of the pack.
------------
another post from Ichabod
Ichabod Wrote:It's not the unvoting per se that is suspicious. Maybe I was not clear enough. It's the fact that you
didn't have another suspect to vote after your unvote (I know you voted for Tasunke in one of the following posts, but it
was due to semi-roleplay reasons, based on a post made after yours) that seemed strange to me. It didn't seem to fit with
your previous plays.
When I played as a wolf, there were two major things I looked for. First, it was difficult to find things to suspect the
other players of, since I had a cheat sheet. So, I voted way less then normal, and I sticked with the same targets for a
long time. The other thing was the need to not vote for certain players that are keen to hold a grudge. This also meant it
was difficult to place a vote.
So, when I see an agressive player holding back, I figure it may be due to this reasons. It was not the "unvote" thing that
made me suspect you, it was this reasoning.
Anyway, it's interesting to see that a big bandwagon formed after my vote. I think it was the forst vote to have a "solid
argument" backing it, so it's the perfect type of vote for a wolf to bandwagon on (due to the reasons above, for
instance).
Here is Ichabod wanting to divert some Lewwyn rage onto the bandwagoners. (as well as point a finger of suspicion towards
the voting pool).
As we now know he is a wolf, he was possibly even the only wolf on that particular bandwagon.
-----------
And here is MJW, following Ichabod's advice with a vote on me
MJW (ya that one) Wrote:I admit I overeacted about the vig thing gaspar. A muitple-vig is so strong that I would
never lych a confirmed one even if it was Serdoa. 
I still don't like c-heard for his 3-hour no one has posted agruement and Tasunake seemed to eager to jump on lewwyn.
Lewwyn feels very angry to me so I think he is not guilty. If lewwyn is on the chopping block one of the people who he does
not like Scooter or Tasunake will be on the chopping block too. Even though Catwalk has a lead know. I think Scooter is
being his usual self. So I'll go with Tasunake. I'll probably switch back to cyneheard if anyone other
then Meiz and me votes for him.
Is he falling for Ichabod's trap? Or is he a co-wolf trying to organize a bandwagon on one of Ichabod's Finger of Suspicion
candidates.
I think the later is easily possible, as it would split the vote, and make it more easy for MJW to put the final nail in
Jkaen's coffin if it came to that.
(as it turns out, my noobishness of (2) votes for Jkaen at the last allowed for MJW to switch wagons, also at the last
second)
--------------------------
So now Im getting a little impatient, hehe ...
Its less than three hours until the lynch, and I haven't posted any of my research yet, so I think I'll go ahead and post what I've got in this regard.
I'll try to do some more research before the lynch though.
--> From my current research, I think Selrahc and MJW are both likely to be wolves, although for the moment I actually consider MJW to fit a profile more close to being wolf.
Therefore, somewhat cautiously, I think I will have to switch my vote to
MJW for now.