WW11 - Civilization

[Selrahc]

@everyone - this may be tooting my own horn, but don't forget that little bonus we had yesterday, of uber not confirming the day extension until after the original deadline had passed. It's almost like a second vote, that might have gone into effect.

I find this line of argument silly. Claiming that you're going to extend the day by 24 hours is the kind of lie that just doesn't happen in a werewolf game. I think MJW was probably the only person who felt like that was a possibility.

If they did think it was a possibility... what do they have to gain? A last minute move like that is an incredibly obvious thing to spot. Wolves who move off a wagon and onto a villager have to justify themselves, and they have to be ready to have it unravel on them if the wolf they protected is later lynched. You're suggesting that Gaspar should have done that... on the off chance that you happened to be telling a rather odd lie? Even if the day had been ending, it's not great play because of how obvious a trail it leaves. When the day almost certainly isn't ending it would just be moronic.

[Catwalk]

I agree with Selrahc that we can't use the 48h votes for much, too bad you didn't trigger the ability without telling us about it.

[Mardoc]

I might be exaggerating, I suppose, although I think my reasoning still applies to anyone with a last post before my announcement. On reflection, I shouldn't have claimed that, then we really would have had the case I wanted. But I thought uber would pop in to confirm sooner than he actually did.

But if they did believe me that day was going to continue, that makes it easier to explain a move to you from SlowCheetah. Especially if Mr Cat survived, leaving confusion and three wolves to vote today. A trail of suspicion is bad, but so's losing a wolf. And that trail only applies if Slowcheetah did actually bite it and prove his wolfiness.

I guess this is the heart of my question; there was a point where the lynch was not a juggernaut, where wolves could have consolidated on you or MJW as a target instead, if they weren't already voting for said target. Why didn't they? Easiest explanation in my mind is that both you and slowcheetah are wolves, so MJW was the only village target available, and the wolves couldn't move because they were already there.

Although I suppose there's room for one conspiracy theory: Tasunke's actions could also be explained if he's a wolf. He was on every bandwagon but slowcheetah's, yesterday. And if he's a wolf, then obviously both Selrahc and Cyneheard can't be wolves as well.

[Selrahc]

The thing about yesterday. I posted my case before the day started, and voted before there actually were any wagons going on. I refrained entirely from tactical voting, because I thought my case was good.

Is that now a bad thing? If I was more indecisive and flip flopped, it would be better? You still don't know MJW isn't a wolf. If he is, then the wolf actions are a lot harder to call.

I think yesterday honestly makes total sense if MJW is a wolf. The Mardoc wagon failed to take off, after it was torpedoed by myself and Lewwyn. The Selrahc wagon failed to take off. So the wolves are forced to pick between MJW and Slowcheetah because they don't have the time to concoct yet another villager bandwagon.

[Mardoc]

I think yesterday honestly makes total sense if MJW is a wolf. The Mardoc wagon failed to take off, after it was torpedoed by myself and Lewwyn. The Selrahc wagon failed to take off. So the wolves are forced to pick between MJW and Slowcheetah because they don't have the time to concoct yet another villager bandwagon.

So why does that imply Gaspar? As I remember it, he jumped on Slowcheetah pretty early, and stuck with that vote.

[uberfish]

Selrahc (7) - Catwalk Cyneheard Gaspar Mardoc MJW Novice Tasunke
Gaspar (1) - Selrahc

Not voting - Sareln

[Selrahc]

So why does that imply Gaspar? As I remember it, he jumped on Slowcheetah pretty early, and stuck with that vote.

It implicates Tasunke more than anything.

I'm going to go have a look. When I initially thought up the theory, I was working off Lewwyn as a wolf rather Gaspar. Obviously that isn't true... lets see if it still fits at all.

[Sareln]

Sorry I haven't been able to play much this day.

I agree that unraveling the Selrahc/Gaspar/Cyneheard knot will give us our best shot. I've been liking Gaspar as innocent so far, so I'd prefer Selrahc or Cyneheard to start untangling this. I'd say we start with Selrahc. Not much harm if we're wrong here, since he's wearing a ton of suspicion from all game and it'll be good for us to resolve that too. Selrahc.

[Selrahc]

If Uberfish wants to end the day early, I don't mind.

Honestly, I can see why I'm suspicious. I think the wolves have done a bang up job framing me. I hope they think I was worth the effort.

[Catwalk]

He said earlier he won't end the day early. Let's spend the rest of the day discussing who's wolf in case you show up innocent. For my part, I've stated that I'm stilling willing to change my vote.