WW11 - Civilization

[Sareln]

I really don't have anything to say. If catwalk is somehow the werewolf he has played the best first-time game ever. If Gaspar is the werewolf he can just cruise though by taking catwalk to the finals. As I said before it really does not matter what order we kill Sareln and Tasunke in because we know their powers.

I'd quibble on the order thing MJW. Let's cover all the bases: If I hang first then a wolf Gaspar or a wolf Catwalk is free to kill someone tonight and win in the 3-person day. A wolf Tasunke probably just kills Gaspar and goes down to the brass tacks with you and catwalk and as much FUD as he can muster. If you're the wolf, I'd expect that you'd kill Gaspar/Catwalk and then try to get Tasunke in the 3-person day.

If we hang Tasunke first, then we guarantee the 4-person last day, since the wolf will have to defer his kill or risk losing outright.

So the order does matter. Do you want a 3 person last day or a 4 person last day?

[Gaspar]

Trying to get another angle on this...

Votes by suspect (only looking at Tasunke and Sareln now, as its impossible to get someone else on the block in short order)

Tasunke: Jkaen, Selrahc, N/A, MJW, Selrahc, Cyneheard
Sareln: Tasunke, Ichabod, Mardoc, Slowcheetah, Selrahc, Cyneheard

Not sure it tells us much. Tasunke's has two odd votes - the tinfoil hat on Selrahc over Ichabod and MJW over Slowcheetah on decision day. Sareln's been with the crowd on most votes but avoided being with the mislynch on the two days where that was doable - he had to vote Cyneheard yesterday. I actually think its more likely the wolf tried to avoid the mislynches.

I guess I have to go Sareln.

[Sareln]

Well, if I've lost Gaspar that's it then.

Just remember when I'm dead that it was Tasunke who tilted and MJW who piled on like he was expecting the reveal to be kill-blocker. I'm confident that whichever of the innocents Gaspar/Catwalk make it to the final day you'll make the right call.

Good luck!

[Catwalk]

Seems that the message I typed earlier didn't get posted, have been out all day. I'm switching to Tasunke, reasoning following shortly.

[Catwalk]

My earlier argument for why wolf Sareln could only make the claim he did is flawed. He could have somewhat convincingly set me and Gaspar up to hang instead, if he could succesfully claim a non-blocking role. If we believed he did not make the block, that would mean either me or Gaspar were lying and we'd be at each other's throats. Given how we're the least suspected players currently, that'd be a very strong move. If he was a wolf, I feel certain he'd have thought of it and tried to implement it. I just don't see it as likely he'd pass on that opportunity as a wolf. It doesn't clear him fully, but I no longer find him to be the top target. Tasunke stands out as the best target, with a toss-up between MJW and Sareln if Tasunke is innocent. Will argue more for this if there's time, but basically I think he's played a really good newbie wolf game. Specifically, he's played the newbie card excellently and been able to dodge a lot of suspicion on that account.

[Catwalk]

I see you typing MJW, you have about 3 minutes left to switch your vote

[MJW (ya that one)]

Sareln I would rather take a 3 person day. Going 1 out of 3 is more likely than going 1 out of 4. And there is no tie-break BS to deal with.

Using the word guaranteed is too strong. The wolf is not risking anything by trying killing someone. I don't think you get a hit-confirm when you block a night-kill. So you cannot tell the difference between a no-kill or a role-block.

Catwalk you argument is flawed. If Sareln did not claim that role he would be in a very bad position. Everyone other than him had roles that were very likely to be true. If Gaspar was telling the truth someone must have roleblocked him and it could have only been Sareln. So we would just lynch Gaspar and Sareln in some order.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I see you typing MJW, you have about 3 minutes left to switch your vote

Please don't tell me you forgot about DSL. Did you?

[Catwalk]

Hmm, do we have another hour? I'm from Denmark, we switch clocks on a different day than you guys.

[uberfish]

deadline is 2200 GMT, so there's 53 minutes left.