Posts: 6,630
Threads: 47
Joined: Apr 2010
Rowain Wrote:Balance reasons 
It is possible that there are 2 packs but lets look at the consequences combined with
18. A werewolf pack wins when all remaining werewolves belong to its pack and the remaining number of villagers is equal or fewer than the number of werewolves.
Usually at a game with 21 pople you have 5 wolves 16 villagers. That allows 5 mislynches to catch 5 wolves.
With 6 wolves (single pack) the village would lose with the 5th mislynch a very hard condition.
With 2 packs and rule 18 the village doesn't lose as long as there is at least 1 villager alive and members of the 2 packs.
Lets asume 2 packs a' 3 wolves. Now the village can do 7 mislynches and still win. If in the szenario only villagers die (8 mislynches 7 nightsnacks) the wolfpack that just happen to hunt at the night after the last villager died wins automatically.
2 packs a 3 wolves that don't know each other but win jointly I can imagine but with rule 18 I doubt that ther are 2 packs.
Of course NobleHelium could well have done it without thinking everything through and not noticing the consequences. In that case he can thank all gods that I'm not a wolf this time else all hell would have broken loose already  .
So until I see a different pack-color I rather go with the single pack setup.
I'm playing D3 and only skim whats written here, but I don't agree with that Rowain. Reasons:
1. You talk like it is unbelievable that our host might have overlooked something. Though we all know that this can happen.
2. You talk like you know all roles. Because they can have severe implications, your whole assessment of what would be the consequences of certain setups might easily be wrong.
3. You talk like you know for sure that there is only one pack and you want us all to believe that. You don't put that forward to discuss it and show you flaws of your assessment, you simply want to end the discussion about one or two packs - and that is not very villagerish.
Apart from that I find it very suspicious that you tell us that if you would be a wolf and there would be 2 packs, all hell would have broke loose already. Who guarantees us that you are not giving NH hell via PM or email right now? I mean that sentence is really not making any sense - it is just there to tell us all that you are not a wolf. It has no bearing on your post - or rather my feeling is that you wrote your whole post only so that you could make that one statement that you can't be a wolf.
Posts: 7,902
Threads: 13
Joined: Aug 2006
At this point I think a 3-3-15 setup is quite likely, since it was mentioned explicitly as one of the options in the setup thread. With that in mind, the late pile of votes on MNG is interesting. One thought I had is that it could be the other wolf pack piling on. The players who have the strongest incentive to vote late are generally the wolves, particularly if their voting power is limited, as it would be in this scenario. So if one of the other front runners is from the other wolf pack, his pack may well have been keeping their votes in reserve, and once they saw a "safe" consensus emerge, they embraced it. Another possibility is of course busing by fellow white wolves, though I wouldn't expect to see a lot of that if one wolf represents 1/3 of the pack. But if we combine both of these ideas, they imply good odds of finding wolves among the late MNG voters.
About Gaspar. What I meant with my comment earlier was that he gave no good reason for his Rowain vote. I had no issue with his other votes, but I was kind of waiting for more justification for his Rowain vote, because he said something like "more later, but for now I'll vote Rowain", and then never really elaborated on it (beyond calling me fat). I also don't buy his arguments along the lines of "I wouldn't defend a fellow wolf" (sorry for all the paraphrasing, no time for a wall of quotes). In a pack of 3, I don't think he would have much choice.
About Commodore. I chuckled when Mardoc said he was saying all the right things at the wrong times. What if he has an experienced "coach" in another time zone, and is reacting late to every piece of advice? That would be kind of hilarious. He is also a late MNG voter (see above). The thing is, I don't really think he was saying the right things, either. Like Injera said, he was being almost comically suspicious. And even though he acted scummy once he arrived, I was surprised to see a steady pile of votes building up on Commodore in the first half of the day. Voting for a day 1 lurker AND newbie is almost guaranteed to go nowhere, so that smells a little of vote parking. Though I have to admit I can't recall right now who exactly voted for him - did anyone compile a full voting history for day 1? That would be very useful.
I also had a few more thoughts, but I have to cut it short. In short, I agree with Novice about Ichabod and Injera. And nothing has invalidated my case against Rowain yet.
I'll try to find some time for rereading tonight.
If you know what I mean.
Posts: 3,045
Threads: 2
Joined: Aug 2006
Random thought, MNG said "I'll be looking forward to seeing the villagers in the lurker thread!"
Would he had said "villagers" if there were two wolf packs? Could be mislead on purpose, but I doubt it somewhat...
Posts: 6,630
Threads: 47
Joined: Apr 2010
Meiz, imo he only referred to the night kill and potential mislynches. Or maybe he wanted to wish his wolf-buddies luck this, hoping to see many villagers in the lurker-thread, not fellow wolves.
Apart from that, why do you guys think that - in the case of two wolf packs - one wolf-pack knows the identity of the other? Makes no sense for me.
Posts: 3,045
Threads: 2
Joined: Aug 2006
Serdoa Wrote:Meiz, imo he only referred to the night kill and potential mislynches. Or maybe he wanted to wish his wolf-buddies luck this, hoping to see many villagers in the lurker-thread, not fellow wolves.
Yes but with two wolf packs, he would have wished to see the rival pack wolves being eaten / mislynched as well
Who has said that in case of two packs, they would know each other? That doesn't make any sense.
Posts: 8,244
Threads: 30
Joined: Jun 2004
Serdoa Wrote:1. You talk like it is unbelievable that our host might have overlooked something. Though we all know that this can happen. I explecitly statetd that this is possible so please stop your D3 and read my post or stop answering them.
Serdoa Wrote:2. You talk like you know all roles. Because they can have severe implications, your whole assessment of what would be the consequences of certain setups might easily be wrong. Yes that is possible but look at MNG's role: He can make two anonimous announcements. I'm sure thats the kind of power wolves need
Serdoa Wrote:3. You talk like you know for sure that there is only one pack and you want us all to believe that. You don't put that forward to discuss it and show you flaws of your assessment, you simply want to end the discussion about one or two packs - and that is not very villagerish. I stated why I believe that there is only 1 pack. And I posted my reasoning exactly for discussion.
Serdoa Wrote:Apart from that I find it very suspicious that you tell us that if you would be a wolf and there would be 2 packs, all hell would have broke loose already. Who guarantees us that you are not giving NH hell via PM or email right now? Usually I give hell via talking in thread.
Serdoa I know you have huge problems in understanding my posts so I give you the benefit of the doubt but please at least take your time to read what I have written.
Posts: 6,630
Threads: 47
Joined: Apr 2010
Meiz, I mean all that talk that maybe wolves from the other pack piled on MNG. Well, and partly your post because I read it also as him knowing that there are two wolf-packs.
Anyhow, my assumption by now would be that the wolves don't know more or less than we villagers. We got the info that we are villagers, they go the info that they are wolves with a color. Imo there is no reason to assume that anyone was informed about how many factions are in play. After all, nobody would expect the wolves to know if a serial-killer in in the game or not, so why assume that they would know about another wolf-pack? And if they do not know, it makes perfect sense that MNG wishes to see many villagers, even if there is a second pack.
Well, ok, thinking about it, wolves know how many wolves the pack consists of, so thats an indication for them at least. Though they still could not be sure (due to serial killer etc.).
Anyway, I really think trying to read anything in MNGs last comment is not going to help at all. I'd rather want to look into
- Gaspar
- zakalwe
- Rowain
because I think they all are acting weird. Rowain trys to put himself in the saviour of the village role (imo, at least that is what I take from his posts, all sounding like the best thing would be to simply vote like he does because he is the only one making sense), Gaspar gets angry and wants to get lynched only because Rowain acts like I described above (I mean, I understand that it is hard to take Gaspar, but why not lynch him instead?) and zakalwe came up with that "we can find wolves in the late MNG-voters", which would only be true if there are 2 wolf-packs and the second one knew who is part of the first one. What we already concluded would make no sense. And I think zak should have that concluded long before us.
Posts: 6,630
Threads: 47
Joined: Apr 2010
Rowain Wrote:I explecitly statetd that this is possible so please stop your D3 and read my post or stop answering them.
Servers are down anyway, or why do you think I post so much? But apart from that, I wrote that you talk like it is unbelievable - not that you did say it can't be. Thats a difference. You explictly stated that it can be, but in a way that it sounded for me like one would have to be a complete dumbass to not see the unbalance that would cause (not that I agree about the unbalance either...).
Quote:Yes that is possible but look at MNG's role: He can make two anonimous announcements. I'm sure thats the kind of power wolves need
Add a seer to them and it is quite strong, being able to announce that "xxx is a wolf", we lynch him and they are rid of another wolf from the other pack. Without anyone having to step forward. Of course, they could instead try a deep cover with having on of theirs announcing it publicly and stating that he is a seer. But if we have one of our own, it could backfire.
Apart from that, my idea is probably not the smartest and there are even better ways to use it. I certainly think it can be used in the right circumstances and can be strong.
Quote:I stated why I believe that there is only 1 pack. And I posted my reasoning exactly for discussion.
Thats not what I read and I wonder how many other players didn't read it either. Your whole post was an explanation why there can only be one pack. There was no maybe in that post, imo.
Quote:Usually I give hell via talking in thread.
If it would give away that you are a wolf? Wouldn't be very nice to your packmates.
Quote:Serdoa I know you have huge problems in understanding my posts so I give you the benefit of the doubt but please at least take your time to read what I have written.
I do. I simply interpret them this way. That might be wrong Rowain and not what you intended. But right now for ME you sound like you are absolutely sure about everything and have basically figured out the setup. Simply too much confidence for my taste. But hey, we know that we clash with each other, every single game, so its probably best to just accept that we are not really compatible in those games
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
Yeah, D3 servers are down...
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Posts: 3,045
Threads: 2
Joined: Aug 2006
Yes... yes they are... 
|
