Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[Mardoc]

How is that relevant?
...

I am not saying commodore being guilty clears me (although it helps),

I thought you were saying that would clear you. Hence your reference to people voting against you for making the argument.

If there are no other vanilla roles then commodore is a WW.

Isn't that a little optimistic? There's still the chance he's lying for village reasons, or that he really is the only vanilla villager.

@Serdoa - I believe Tasunke's restriction. I have a similar restriction myself. That said, you're right that everything else he's done is less than useful, and there's little reason to believe a power dictates faction.

[zakalwe]

There's still the chance he's lying for village reasons, or that he really is the only vanilla villager.

That chance seems pretty slim. First, the mod must have decided to make just one vanilla villager, and then that very villager must have ended up on the block as early as day 2.

Does anyone share my interpretation of Tasunke's night-time post?

[pling]

Well, that's not you off the hook as far as I'm concerned, Molach, but it's a definite step in the right direction - so I'll move my vote from you.

Tasunke is still raising red flags in my head. That exchange? cross-post? what? with Lewwyn about Gaspar just reads really weird, for instance. My sticking point is the Watcher role - if he is village and we lynch him today then we lose out on the chance of a useful Watching during Night 3. And if we don't get a useful Watching then why it's not useful could be instructive.

The Jkaen case isn't gelling with me at the moment - I guess partly because it hinges round him & Rowain having a spat, but I just saw that as "oh look, there they go again". They've butted head in these games before, as I remember. Am I mis-representing the case? Or indeed mis-remembering the past? I wouldn't say I think he's innocent, just that at the moment I'm getting a neutral read and when he's had a village power-role in the past he's been a strong player so I'm inclined to let him talk more rather than string him up.

My number one suspect, is still Commodore for all the same reasons I've said before, who's now done his Houdini act two days in a row. By chance, on Day 2, but (as Serdoa already said) - he was out there on the dock fairly far ahead, then we had a late run on Bigger putting them to a tie.

And here's a tally, as it currently stands (through liberal use of the preview button I'm pretty sure it's correct to date):

Commodore (7) - novice, pindicator, jkaen, mardoc, tasunke, catwalk, pling
Tasunke (4) - Gaspar, zakalwe, Commodore, Serdoa
Jkaen (4) - Lewwyn, Meiz, Injera, molach

Ichabod & Sareln have yet to vote today.

[Tasunke]

For the record my limitation is not (every other night) but instead is (not twice in a row).

If people want, I can instead watch on Night 4 as opposed to Night 3 in order to prove this ... but honestly I'd rather be watching tonight.

[Tasunke]

People pushing for my lynch:
Serdoa, Zakalwe, and Gaspar
… especially Gaspar

(and Commodore of course)

People who voted for me yesterday: Gaspar
People who, last night, talked about me as an obvious target: Gaspar, Commodore

People who voted for Bigger last night: Zakalwe, Serdoa (and others)
(of note, Lewwyn pushed for a tie last night, and was also voting for Bigger)
-> Sareln voted the final, tying vote.
------

On day 1, among the people that had voted for myself*
-> Zakalwe, Gaspar, Serdoa, Mr Nice Guy, Commodore
Among the people that had voted for Rowain*
-> Gaspar, Serdoa, Zakalwe

*at one point before the lynch

Here you see Gaspar, Serdoa, and Zakalwe switching between myself and Rowain on Day 1, and then later voting for me today.
On day 2, Serdoa and Zakalwe voted Bigger while Gaspar voted for myself (allowing Lewwyn’s tie to occur, whether directly or indirectly)
-----

I am not necessarily convinced that they are all wolves, but they seem to be a “voting trinity”. I am not sure why this is exactly, because I don’t think a single pack of 3 wolves would do this, but I am inclined to think that at least one of these people is a wolf. The fact that they follow each other with their votes however … this is an oddity that I do not think should be overlooked.

[Tasunke]

Bigger last night -> Bigger yesterday (day 2)

[Tasunke]

Using yesterday as a general term to refer to day 2

[Ichabod]

Ok, let's give some comments after finally reading through the day.

I was worried after seeing the bigger mislynch that we might have been railroading things to a wolf victory: after bigger, it was kind of obvious that we needed to lynch commodore, after that, Tasunke, and so on. If these guys are villagers, we would be in trouble. It's pretty obvious that there's not a lot of new candidates being brought forth.

But Molach post made me realize something. So, let's talk about Tasunke:

I was feeling that Tasunke was indeed an innocent being framed. His power limitation was believable to me and I didn't agree that it was some sort of lie. Especially his day 1 claim seemed strange to be done as a wolf.

But heer's what Molach made me see. Tasunke's power would imbalance the setup towards one of the wolf factions (it's extremely likely that we have 2 wolf factions, I think). Why is that? Because not using his power every night it is avaiable would be bad village play. There's no reason to wait two days without using it, except if we know that we killed all wolves that would have a night kill in a certian night. So, that being said, Tasunke would always track the white or the other color faction, whateveer goes first.

This would make the game imbalanced. And I don't think NH would do it. Why? Because of the 2 wolf announcers. It's likely that the wolves have the same power roles, showing that NH intend the game to be balanced.

Now, Mardoc says that he has a similar limitation to Tasunke. Does this clear Tasunke? I don't think so, mainly because of the watcher role he claims. A seer that can go only once every two nights, for example, is not imbalanced towards a wolf faction, because the power doesn't support itself in finding a wolf attack. A watcher role, on the other hand, does.

So, everything points out that Tasunke is a wolf watcher? No, there are some counter arguments:

1. If you take out the assumption that the best village play of the watcher role is to use it everynight, my theory goes Boom! In the end, what really matters is how NH sees it? I think it's hard to believe a watcher wouldn't watch every day, but what do other think?

2. If Tasunke is a wolf watcher, there's likely a second wolf watcher around, for balance reasons. So, there would be a chance that the other wolf group would have killed Tasunke one night, to get rid of an opponent wolf. I doubt they'd do that, though. First, because there could be baner protection on the claimed power role. Second, because they could think killing a wolf this early would be bad (I doubt both wolf teams can win together). Third, because maybe there's only 2 wolves per faction and if Tasunke was paired with MNG, that'd mean one less nightkill every 3 days, assuming that how's the setup work (which implies 3 wolf factions and leads to point 3.)

3. If there's 3 wolf groups, the watcher role as stated by Tasunke could make sense. It'd end up getting all wolf factions if used each possible night, which may be considered balanced. I doubt it, though.

So, Tasunke's power limitation really does not make sense with a villager watcher, because it'd be imbalanced against a wolf faction.

Does that mean we should lynch Tasunke today? Maybe not. Next post I'll talk about Commodore.

[Ichabod]

Why Commodore may be a better lynch today?

He claims to be a vanilla villager. I don't believe this claim until I see another vanilla villager claim. Why? Because Rowain's power is really, really bad and it's definetely a filler role.

But, why would Commodore claim a vanilla villager? Why not claim his wolf role, which he probably has (assuming he's a wolf)? Because the wolf factions are likely to be balanced. So, if he's the wolf announcer or the wolf tracker of his team, claiming would be suicide, so he couldn't do it.

So, by lynching Commodore today, we might be lucky and hit another watcher wolf, which would make Tasunke the obvious target for the next lynch. If he's a vanilla villager, we could give Tasunke some more time and get his Watcher result for night 3. Assuming he's a villager, we would gain something, at least.

So, I'd prefer lynching Commodore over Tasunke today. But that's not the only things I want to talk about. Because I still have a point of fear that we are being played into lynch easy targets.

[Ichabod]

That being said, I find Gaspar quick vote against Tasunke interesting. Did you know, by any chance, that he couldn't watch two days in a row, Gaspar? That's why you didn't wait for it?