Now, before I say anything else I want to say that I generally believe in absolving myself of analyzing Lewwyn because he ALWAYS reads scum to me despite only being scum like once in 10 games. But, in the interest of keeping the conversation moving here is the last few posts from Lewwyn which ping the hell out of my scumdar:
Lewwyn Wrote:I can't tell what the tally is. Commodore appears to be leading with Bigger really close?
Bigger
Votes Bigger.
Lewwyn Wrote:We should tie Commodore and Bigger and see a random lynch. I think most of us would lynch either yes? They are my top two targets so I'm good with either going down.
Follows it up asking for a tie. Then Sareln votes Bigger.
Lewwyn Wrote:Tied up yes?
NOBODY VOTE!
Here he basically scares everyone off of changing their vote in an interest of...
Lewwyn Wrote:Such are the perils of WW. Still I'm glad we got to test out the random lynch mechanic. Also, this gives us a lot of information on the day. IMO still a successful day.
"Testing the random lynch mechanic." Uh, hey Lew - if its random that means there's nothing to be learned here. After this Bigger (his candidate, we should note) is lynched. Then we get told we get a lot of info from the day (Not actually true unless we also lynch Commodore) and he calls it successful.
Quick aside: Any chance you have a double vote power, Lewwyn? That would explain your interest in manufacturing a tie.
Lewwyn Wrote:Really, really busy, but I love Meiz picking up my thoughts. Jkaen
Lewwyn Wrote:After reading: Gaspar.
Lewwyn Wrote:Eh, misread. Sangria will do that to you. Should stick with Jkaen till the morning.
This is the sum total of contribution today - agree with Meiz, vote me, retract vote on me.
Anyway, its cool if you're busy but uh, could you possibly explain the fine ganja you've been puffing the last 48 hours, bro?
I guess the grander point I want to make is that I 1000% agree with Ichabod that the way this day is going looks like a fail. I mean basically MNG > Bigger > Commodore/Tasunke > Commodore/Tasunke has been the radar from minute one. Its like we've stopped trying. Even if both Commodore and Tasunke were guilty (plausible but unlikely) there's no way NH rolled this game with 3 wolves - there's at least 2 and probably 3 more wolves out there. Wouldn't kill us to spend some time prodding some other people, would it?
Sorry busy day for me and they just moved my lecture up so I don't have too much time. Too much for me say too. I'm sitting on a lot of thoughts. Partly because I've spent the last two days of free time reading all the spoiler threads for PB6.
Voting Jkaen today mostly to see what I could scare up. I wanted to avoid a landslide lynch on Commodore that gives us no additional information. I do think we do have to lynch Commodore to get the most information.
About the tie... well, maybe it was weed in the end. But, I was sort of excited for a tie. And I really did want to see if anyone would try to save anyone, but then Tasunke asked his question and I'm like "Dammit now I have to answer and it won't work." So at that point any real info from a tie became pointless.
Last night I was thinking about Gaspar and went back and read his angry blow up post. And it was a pretty stupid blowup. I thought that it seemed really fake. So I voted for Gaspar. Then I kept reading and reread the Bigger claim and thought "I must be wrong". At that point I decided that I just wasn't thinking clearly enough, I'd put my vote back on Jkaen and wait till I had some real time.
Thinking about it again today, I believe Gaspar was investigated, I just wish we knew who did it. I'm not suggesting that whoever did comes forward because I don't want to have a seer or whoever reveal themselves, bu I do wish they'd come forward.
I looked again today and, yeah, I think Gaspar is being extra cagey and there has been an extra edge to most of his posts. He will probably say its due to IRL issues, which I do know about, and is one of the reasons I've avoided suspicion on him, but looking back on the blowup it looks more accusatory and exagerrated from what I know of Gaspar.
Problem is I think Zak and Commodore are both wolves too and somehow they were all voting for Tasunke earlier. Go back and read the change log of votes that pling posted and check out zak's votes. I don't really have any harder points I'm just suspicious.
Oh and I'm a villager but not vanilla. I have a power but it is passive and it isn't a double vote or anything. I can't activate the power. But at this rate it doesn't look like it will come into play.
Also seem to have crossposted with Gaspar. Nice.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Lewwyn Wrote:Thinking about it again today, I believe Gaspar was investigated, I just wish we knew who did it. I'm not suggesting that whoever did comes forward because I don't want to have a seer or whoever reveal themselves, bu I do wish they'd come forward.
What the fuck did I just post?
I meant to say that I wish we knew without them having to come forward...
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Jkaen Wrote:I really dont agree with this whole I think X is guilty but lynching them can wait.
Ifthey are a WW then lynch them now, it never makes sense to hold of doing so, as we say in pool, pot the easies
The thing is, I'm not sure on either of Commodore or Tasunke and I think both have painted themselves into corners where their roles will be clarified with time. So rather than risk the mislynch, we can afford to wait and focus in other areas.
Gaspar Wrote:I guess the grander point I want to make is that I 1000% agree with Ichabod that the way this day is going looks like a fail. I mean basically MNG > Bigger > Commodore/Tasunke > Commodore/Tasunke has been the radar from minute one. Its like we've stopped trying. Even if both Commodore and Tasunke were guilty (plausible but unlikely) there's no way NH rolled this game with 3 wolves - there's at least 2 and probably 3 more wolves out there. Wouldn't kill us to spend some time prodding some other people, would it?
I get the point you're driving at. I think it also emphasizes why Ichabod is such an effective wolf. He is good at making true statements that don't actually help get the village at the truth. I'm still quite suspicious of him, especially after his reaction to my 3 points was to ridicule the first one and ignore the other two.
@ Novice, clarification. I started using the word "Frame" in my previous post to mean "Frame of mind" instead of "set up". So to rewrite it now with (hopefully) better clarity:
Last part of Post 803 Wrote:Why would Ichabod mention the railroading of Commodore/Tasunke? Why not let the thing run its course instead of intervening and potentially exposing himself? If we can't explain this, then the whole Ichabod is a wolf theory falls apart if we assume that it's a more effective play to just lay low and let it happen, all things being equal. Commodore suggests the possibility that Tasunke is a member of a wolf-Ichabod's pack, as was MNG. Therefore, if he lets the whole railroad run its course, at the end all of his pack will be either dead or heavily implicated. This would result in a loss for Ichabod so he needs to make a play to derail the C/T or T/C progression.
Rethinking it over, I guess the best way to describe my suspecting and pushing for Ichabod is as follows: I suspect Ichabod b/c he feels like his WW self. Lots of text, and the back and forth with Mardoc and myself after my own push. I look at the other data about him and don't see anything that clearly rules it out... so here I am.
tl; dr block
@ JKaen, I am not sure on Commodore or Tasunke, and their claims will become more/less believable over time so we can save them for later.
@ Gaspar, Ichabod is right, but that doesn't mean he's not a wolf.
@ Uberfish, let me clarify my thinking/words from 803
Gaspar, Lewwyn... Guys, did you actually read Ichabod's posts? Or did you skim the wall of text like I'm afraid everyone else did.
Post #721: Commodore is in trouble because there has been no villager to come forward as vanilla. Definitely a good point. It's been over 48 hours now (real time) and nobody's called vanilla. Mighty suspicious of Commodore by now and worth a vote. But we're looking for new names.
Post #778 Ichabod channels James Joyce. I'll try to summarize because it took me 4 or 5 readings just to understand, and I'm spoilering it for length:
If Commodore & Tasunke are both villagers, we're in trouble because that's bad for the village. Still agree
You feel Tasunke is being framed because his power limitation was believable to you. But the power limitation was not the reason he was suspected. He was suspected because of day 1 silence, play that is not helpful to the village, and some people have said his posts feel scummy. I felt like pressuring him today because he's mis-led the village with his role, and that felt scummy to me too. Anyway, continuing...
Tasunke's power is imbalanced towards one faction or another. This is because if Tasunke uses his power at every opportunity and if wolves alternate kills, and if Tasunke can only use his power every other night, then he can only watch/track one wolf pack. So you don't think NH would unbalance the game, so you suspect a second watcher? You don't come out and say it in this post, but that would balance things. The example you give is:
Ichabod Wrote:This would make the game imbalanced. And I don't think NH would do it. Why? Because of the 2 wolf announcers. It's likely that the wolves have the same power roles, showing that NH intend the game to be balanced.
Tasunke isn't cleared from having this power limitation even though Molach does. You seem pretty confident Molach is village. But I'll agree that Tasunke isn't cleared from blame.
Reasons why you think Tasunke isn't a wolf: 1) Tasunke could just be messing with us. But why wouldn't a watcher watch every day? Congratulations, you knocked down that straw man good. 2) If Tasunke is a wolf watcher, this means there needs to be a second wolf watcher from another pack in order to maintain balance. Great point. 3) If there are 3 wolf packs then Tasunke's role as village can make sense because he'll be able to potentially spy on wolves every day.
The point that I find interesting though is your conclusion:
Ichabod Wrote:So, Tasunke's power limitation really does not make sense with a villager watcher, because it'd be imbalanced against a wolf faction
Again, I'm trying to understand this right. Tasunke is a watcher that can watch every other day. You list out how that would not make sense as a village role, but how you think it would make sense as a wolf role, yet only if there were two packs of wolves. And then you go on to say that we should not vote for Tasunke.
After you just told us how you think that Tasunke's role is not a village role.
[SIZE="4"]You just told us not to vote for someone you think is a wolf.[/SIZE]
This is like the Clif-Notes version of reading Ichabod's posts. But guys, don't just take my word for it. Read his stuff yourself. If you don't understand a bit, don't gloss over it. Go back and dig into it. Sentence by sentence. In the famous words of Ronald Reagan: "Trust but Verify" (And I'm not even a republican, but that's some good advise.)
Post #779: Why Ichabod says Commodore is a better lynch than Tasunke (who you just said was a wolf...)
You don't believe Commodore's a vanllia villager because nobody else has come forward as one. I agree that it is unlikely that he would be the only one. I suppose it's possible, but this morning I voted for him with that purpose in mind.
Why would Commodore not claim his role? Because wolf factions are likely balanced (see post 778). Again, your words now:
Ichabod Wrote:So, if he's the wolf announcer or the wolf tracker of his team, claiming would be suicide, so he couldn't do it.
If his power is announcer, then this makes sense why he would claim vanilla. Very plausible. But if he's a tracker. Who is the other tracker to reveal their power? Tasunke Remember him? The same guy you said who had a role that did not make sense as a village role? In the previous post?
Again, I'm trying to understand you Ichabod. You think we should lynch Commodore because there's a good chance he is lying about his role, and that you suspect that role is the same as a known wolf role. Either announcer or as wolf tracker. Why don't you just say you want to lynch the guy you know is the wolf tracker, Tasunke? That makes no sense!
Unless we have a panicking wolf who is ratting out Tasunke as you try to protect. That's how I'm starting to suspect this story ends.
Let's do another one couple!
Post #780: Forget everything I said about Commodore, I just thought of a flimsy thing to try to stick on Gaspar.
Post #784: You mistakenly mixed up watcher and tracker. That's an honest mistake. Then you add:
Ichabod Wrote:I don't think Commodore could be a tracker. I just mix Tracker and Watcher easily. I don't think he can be a tracker, I think it's likely that he's a second wolf watcher.
Oh yeah, but let's ignore the guy I think is the first wolf watcher
Eh, Lewwyn probably isn't a wolf. He's just in his useless "too cool to care" mode. He has the same switch in Civ, which is when he gets stomped like 29 or 32. In WW it manifests itself with the same sort of useless "Heh, heh, heh" posts as above or whatever. Regardless, I'd like it if you'd switch on buddy, you're pretty good at this game when you bother.
As far as your accusation, I'm not going to defend on that night. I'm extremely embarrassed about my behavior and I don't want to bring any more attention to it. If that makes me wolfish, I can't help it, but it might be the most humiliating behavior I've ever had at RB - and I once lost a city to a barb warrior on like T80 on quick speed. If there's something else "wolfy" you want me to address, have at it.
I find it interesting that Sareln and pindicator are independently coming to the same sorts of conclusions about Ichabod. I don't necessarily disagree but I also think they're reading too much into it.
I'll give some support on Ichabod for now. I'm interested to hear what others think mostly.
After this Bigger (his candidate, we should note) is lynched. Then we get told we get a lot of info from the day (Not actually true unless we also lynch Commodore) and he calls it successful. 
