Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[Meiz]

Actually after re-reading & thinking more clearly, [strike]Ichabod[/strike] Jkaen

[Catwalk]

pindicator, I've made a sincere and vigorous attempt at understanding your accusations against Ichabod. I still don't get it. Are you accusing him because he suspects both Commodore and Tasunke but is keen on hanging Commodore first? I'm getting the distinct impression that you're crusading to hang Ichabod, meaning you're convinced of his guilt and "only" need to convince the rest of us. To that end, everything he says is interpreted in light of him being guilty. How convinced are you of his guilt? On a scale from "not" to "absolutely" :neenernee

[Ichabod]

Since Injera and novice understood my thoughts about Commodore/Tasunke, I'll believe they are understandable enough. But here's the advantages I see in lynching Commodore first:

1. We enable another watch from Tasunke, if he's a villager.
2. If we lynch Commodore and he's a White Watcher, we can go for Tasunke 100% certain of his guilt.
3. We will know a lot about day 1 after lynching Commodore. The initial bandwagon on MNG had dissipated when the bandwagon on Rowain started. Only when Commodore started to get more votes, MNG returned as a target. Knowing Commodore's alignment would help a lot to understand what happened, especially since it's very likely we have a more than one pack setup.

I'm here, Serdoa, but fairly busy; I don't have much spare time to draw on and today honestly seems like a good day to save up some energy, with such an abundance of good lynch targets. Of course, some people are acting like the whole game hinges on who we lynch today, which perhaps it does, for them.

What bothers me about Ichabod, specifically, is how he seemingly wants us to lynch people in a very particular order. I still think both Tasunke and Commodore look like very probable wolves (Tasunke mostly based on gut, Commodore mostly based on logical evidence), but I get the feeling Ichabod knows they are wolves, and wants to make sure they both hang, while he himself comes out looking like a hero when the dust settles.

Putting on my tinfoil hat, what if there actually are three wolf packs, taking turns to kill? As a wolf, Ichabod would presumably know the kill order, and could be manoeuvering so that his own pack comes out on top, perhaps able to finish off the last opposing wolf with a night kill? And I guess knowing the kill order could be relevant with just two wolf packs as well.

Either way, if two or even three wolf packs are in the process of duking it out, I see no reason to interrupt them. I will throw my weight behind the Ichabod wagon for now, though. His massive exposition about Commodore and Tasunke seems a little too insightful about the game setup. In other words, he knows too much.

Cross-posting a bit... will post this and then read the last few more posts more thoroughly.

Perhaps you are the one that knows too much (that we will hit 2 wolves in Commodore/Tasunke) and is trying to divert the heat to me.

Interesting that you point out 3 wolf packs. Your little charade with the "gray wolf announcer" didn't work as you wanted it to, so you need to reinforce the point? Seems so.

I don't believe there are 3 wolf packs. NH asked in the tech thread about 1 and 2 wolf packs, not 3/4/5. 9 wolves in 21 player game is stupid. 3 packs of 2 in a 21 players setup = too luck-based setup. Besides, one wolf pack could be dead only on night kills before they could make anything.

For that and a billion other reasons, a three wolf pack setup is an ulikely thing. That announcement seems to be cute play to me. And even if the "black wolf announcer" answer it back, I won't believe, for obvious reasons again, so don't waste your time.

[Mardoc]

Ichabod's argument does depend on some assumptions, which he lists up himself in his magnum opus.

He didn't list the biggest one, though - assuming that perfect balance is even possible in a game where factions are assigned randomly. I see no way that an every-other-night watcher makes nearly the difference between packs as the main question of which pack gets the talented wolves.

Thanks, my friend. At least someone understood what I was trying to say. I didn't know I was such a bad writer, but it seems that 90% of the playes coudln't understand my "very-confusing-almost-worth-skipping-james-joyce-like" posts.

On the contrary, you're a very good writer. It's just that sometimes your purpose in writing isn't to explain, but to obfuscate. I'm reminded of the difference in the diplomacy in FFH PBEM6, between when you were planning to rush me, and when you changed your mind and wanted an ally.

This isn't an argument that would even make sense applied to someone else (insert your own derogatory comments here about who I mean). Some people's normal operating mode is confusing enough. But you, Ichabod, I respect too much to believe you'd be confusing by accident.

@ Catwalk - I know you didn't address your question to me, but I want to answer it anyway, since I've been making similar arguments. How convinced am I on Ichabod? 'Mostly'.

And why do I suspect him? It's got very little to do with his thoughts on Tasunke and Commodore. It's his style, which was very foggy until I started the bandwagon on him for it, plus the fact that what he's been talking about has been...ah, how to put it. True but useless. He spent four long posts yesterday arguing that the village shouldn't get tunnel vision. Which is a very true statement. It's always true, in fact. And then he spent two sentences to put a vote onto Gaspar, which he later retracted, returning to that same tunnel vision himself!

This latest is another example. Yes, if we're bound to lynch both Tasunke and Commodore, then I'd rather lynch Commodore first. The case on him is more concrete. That's rather obvious, actually; of course I'm going to agree with Ichabod on it.

But why is he circling back to the same question? Someone, I think his name starts with "I", spent a long time yesterday talking about 'frames' and 'railroads' and 'discussing other people'. And, well, Tasunke has 2 votes, Commodore has 6, as of the last tally. No one's arguing against it, except Commodore himself. So it's not like people need to be convinced on the subject.

[pindicator]

What does "gotta drop the dead weight" means?

I really hope you are a wolf, Pindicator, because I'm finding some of your comments rather offensive. At least if you are one of the bad guys, I could see your comments justified. But if you are not, I hope you reevaluate how you play games and start thinking a bit more about other people.

I don't see anything personal in there. "Drop the dead weight" is an idiom and here i mean you are dropping support for Tasunke because you want to save yourself. And I apologize if you took it personally; i'm trying to point your flawed logic, not attack you personally.

[Ichabod]

[quote=Mardoc]He didn't list the biggest one, though - assuming that perfect balance is even possible in a game where factions are assigned randomly. I see no way that an every-other-night watcher makes nearly the difference between packs as the main question of which pack gets the talented wolves.



On the contrary, you're a very good writer. It's just that sometimes your purpose in writing isn't to explain, but to obfuscate. I'm reminded of the difference in the diplomacy in FFH PBEM6, between when you were planning to rush me, and when you changed your mind and wanted an ally.

This isn't an argument that would even make sense applied to someone else (insert your own derogatory comments here about who I mean). Some people's normal operating mode is confusing enough. But you, Ichabod, I respect too much to believe you'd be confusing by accident.

@ Catwalk - I know you didn't address your question to me, but I want to answer it anyway, since I've been making similar arguments. How convinced am I on Ichabod? 'Mostly'.

And why do I suspect him? It's got very little to do with his thoughts on Tasunke and Commodore. It's his style, which was very foggy until I started the bandwagon on him for it, plus the fact that what he's been talking about has been...ah, how to put it. True but useless. He spent four long posts yesterday arguing that the village shouldn't get tunnel vision. Which is a very true statement. It's always true, in fact. And then he spent two sentences to put a vote onto Gaspar, which he later retracted, returning to that same tunnel vision himself!

This latest is another example. Yes, if we're bound to lynch both Tasunke and Commodore, then I'd rather lynch Commodore first. The case on him is more concrete. That's rather obvious, actually; of course I'm going to agree with Ichabod on it.

But why is he circling back to the same question? Someone, I think his name starts with "I", spent a long time yesterday talking about 'frames' and 'railroads' and 'discussing other people'. And, well, Tasunke has 2 votes, Commodore has 6, as of the last tally. No one's arguing against it, except Commodore himself. So it's not like people need to be convinced on the subject.[/quote]

I already explained why I think the game setup is supposed to be balanced:

[QUOTE=Ichabod;243185
This would make the game imbalanced. And I don't think NH would do it. Why? Because of the 2 wolf announcers. It's likely that the wolves have the same power roles, showing that NH intend the game to be balanced.
[/quote]

There was also a lot of talk about 2 wolf pack games being hard to balance in the pre-game thread. I think NH really tried to make the game setup balanced. The fact that a pack might end with the best players and the other one with the worst players has nothing to do with balance of the setup.

And what I was saying about the railroading of the game has been felt by other players too. The way things were and are heading, after Commodore/Tasunke likely lynches, we'll only have day 1 of information. The other days are just bandwagons from the start. So, I wanted to discuss more things, that's why I voted for Gaspar for some time (based on his quick vote on Tasunke).

But when I was reading day 1 again, I realized that lynching Commodore, while a thing that makes sense because of his vanilla villager claim, will also give a very revealing light over the happenings of day 1. So, we will get so much info that there's little to worry about, even though more discussion is alwyas good. For instance, there were some pretty opportunistic votes against me and that will be good info for the following days.

[Jkaen]

Actually after re-reading & thinking more clearly, [strike]Ichabod[/strike] Jkaen

Meiz, you need to give me a bit more to go on if you want me to argue against your vote

[Mardoc]

Meiz, you need to give me a bit more to go on if you want me to argue against your vote

Jkaen, I've a better idea. Instead of looking for what Meiz suspects about you, tell us what you're thinking on the topics of the day. I find people very useless when they're talking about themselves, it's going to generally be the same whether you're a wolf or a villager, you still want to live.

So far all I really remember from you is that you suspect we have no vanilla villagers, and therefore we should lynch Commodore. I don't think you've weighed in on Ichabod or Tasunke, for example. Or you could pick someone new to talk about.

[pindicator]

pindicator, I've made a sincere and vigorous attempt at understanding your accusations against Ichabod. I still don't get it. Are you accusing him because he suspects both Commodore and Tasunke but is keen on hanging Commodore first? I'm getting the distinct impression that you're crusading to hang Ichabod, meaning you're convinced of his guilt and "only" need to convince the rest of us. To that end, everything he says is interpreted in light of him being guilty. How convinced are you of his guilt? On a scale from "not" to "absolutely" :neenernee

My main issue with his posts 778 - 789 is that his logic appears to be this:

• Tasunke's power limitation doesn't make sense as a village watcher because it'd be imbalanced against a wolf faction
  
• But we shouldn't lynch Tasunke and Tasunke is being framed. He goes on to attack Gaspar because Gaspar voted for Tasunke to start the day.

So if he thinks Tasunke's power limitation doesn't make sense as a villager, it's unwritten that he thinks it must make sense as a wolf, right? And if he thinks Tasunke is a wolf why does he think Tasunke is being framed?

I would say I'm 70% sure. Which means I'm still more sure about Commodore. But I'm not switching my vote until Ichabod can satisfactorily explain why he thought Tasunke was being framed and insinuated he was a wolf at the same time.

But if we find Tasunke or Ichabod is a wolf later on, then I will be near certain the other is a wolf.

[Jkaen]

Tansuke I am pretty neutral about to be honest, maybe just vergin WW, I certainly don't see why he is considered to be a no brainer. Once commodore is lynched and we see what happens tonight, then I think we should have a lot more information with which to judge him. In no rush right now to string him up. Certainly dont want people to pointlessly make it into a tie again.

As for the ichabod lynch, it seems the suspicion on him is he is trying to be helpful, made some suggestions based on a number of assumptions which if true would give a given set of readings, and for this seems to be getting strung up for being too helpful?