Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[Meiz]

Since I'll once again miss the deadline, some thoughts for today.

I've been avoiding Commodore-wagon to keep up with the discussion. Initially I didn't believe on his guilt, but since no vanilla villagers have appeared, it's quite clear he is lying. Could be a strong village PR, but then not claiming at the tie yesterday would be odd.

Members of another pack can probably see this even clearer than villagers. If wolf packs would in fact have mirrored roles (2 announcers does indicate this), the other wolf pack would be quite interested in getting Commodore lynched today. If they have some strong PR, they definitely would like to take a chance of getting that PR out from the other tribe. Anyways, I'm quite fine with that

I'm still quite suspicious of Ichabod, I just don't think he'd be on the same pack with Commodore. Especially Mardoc summarizes my thoughts quite well in his post http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post243632
I also found it interesting that Ichabod ignored my points since I changed my vote back to Jkaen. I'd think villager would want to counter or even react to all arguments presented against him, but Ichabod seemed to be just happy that I was not voting on him. Generally I think his answers to accusations have been quite a lot more aggressive than in his villager games.

I find Jkaen's play quite confusing, but enough of that for now

[strike]Jkaen[/strike] Ichabod

I don't get much of wolf reads from Tasunke. Especially this post reads a clear villager to me, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post243551
Maybe I'm naive and underestimating Tasunke, but I just don't see him making this post as a wolf . I'm also getting good reads from Pindicator, Sareln and Mardoc, don't think at the moment that they'd be part of any wolf group.

[Ichabod]

So, before I bring forward a new topic of discussion, let me clarify a previous one. The suspect of Commodore is not only based on the vanilla villager claim, it's also based on the fact that we know there are wolf roles that cannot be claimed, which would force that wolf to claim vanilla villager (or create a role) when he is asked to reveal.

Why is that? Becuase we know there are 2 announcers already. Why? Because of the "Gray Wolf" Announcer. I will talk a lot about this gray wolf announcement thing, which was, in my eyes, a very stupid play by whatever wolf pack that did it (the "other one/black one", most likely, because the white announcer was dead and I don't believe there are 3 packs). Maybe I'll regret my words in the end, if the wolves win, but whatever.

As you can see, this announcement only helped the village to realize that it's very likely that the wolf packs have similar roles. We know both packs have announcers. It's very likely, therefore, that all roles from the packs are similar. That'd be balanced and it makes sense with what we have seen so far.

Regarding Commodore, if he's an announcer for his pack, he couldn't claim it when he was being pressured. If he's a watcher wolf, he couldn't claim either, because of Tasunke's claim (this would reveal both Tasunke and Commodore to be wolves). So, this probably made him claim vanilla villager when he was pressured (he couldn't claim his real role), probably believing there were other villagers out there. It doesn't make him a certain wolf, but it helps.

---

But let's talk about Zakalwe and the Grey Announcer now. Take a look at this post, in which Zak accuses me on the basis of "knowing too much":

I'm here, Serdoa, but fairly busy; I don't have much spare time to draw on and today honestly seems like a good day to save up some energy, with such an abundance of good lynch targets. Of course, some people are acting like the whole game hinges on who we lynch today, which perhaps it does, for them.

What bothers me about Ichabod, specifically, is how he seemingly wants us to lynch people in a very particular order. I still think both Tasunke and Commodore look like very probable wolves (Tasunke mostly based on gut, Commodore mostly based on logical evidence), but I get the feeling Ichabod knows they are wolves, and wants to make sure they both hang, while he himself comes out looking like a hero when the dust settles.

Putting on my tinfoil hat, what if there actually are three wolf packs, taking turns to kill? As a wolf, Ichabod would presumably know the kill order, and could be manoeuvering so that his own pack comes out on top, perhaps able to finish off the last opposing wolf with a night kill? And I guess knowing the kill order could be relevant with just two wolf packs as well.

Either way, if two or even three wolf packs are in the process of duking it out, I see no reason to interrupt them. I will throw my weight behind the Ichabod wagon for now, though. His massive exposition about Commodore and Tasunke seems a little too insightful about the game setup. In other words, he knows too much.

Cross-posting a bit... will post this and then read the last few more posts more thoroughly.

This whole post doesn't make sense if you read it carefully. Zakalwe's voting for me, because he thinks I'm a wolf wanting to lynch other wolves in a particular order. What? And why vote me, then? Wouldn't it be better to lynch the other targets that he also suspects, since my guilty depends on their guilty?

What bothers me about Ichabod, specifically, is how he seemingly wants us to lynch people in a very particular order. I still think both Tasunke and Commodore look like very probable wolves (Tasunke mostly based on gut, Commodore mostly based on logical evidence), but I get the feeling Ichabod knows they are wolves, and wants to make sure they both hang, while he himself comes out looking like a hero when the dust settles.

How would I know they are wolves? The only way I could know that someone is a wolf is if I belong to his pack. Or are we supposed to believe that the packs know each other? That would be ridiculous.

If I was a wolf, the only way I could know for sure that Commodore and Tasunke are wolves (which Zak is implying) is if they were both from my pack. So, I'd be actively campaigning for killing them both. That's possible, but I couldn't say that's a very bright thought, nor a likely possibility.

The only other possible explanation for me being sure about Tasunke and Commodore being both wolves is if I'm in Commodore's pack (ergo, knowing he's a wolf) and I know thar our pack has a wolf watcher, so I know Tasunke is the watcher from the second wolf pack, based on his claim. Possible, but my play wouldn't make sense, if that was the case. I'd be giving too much information to the village without any gain.

So what Zakalwe is implying here doesn't make a lot of sense. It seems like a rushed vote to bandwagon me into a mislynch (if you look at the votes in that time, I was almost tied to Commodore). But that's not all:

Putting on my tinfoil hat, what if there actually are three wolf packs, taking turns to kill? As a wolf, Ichabod would presumably know the kill order, and could be manoeuvering so that his own pack comes out on top, perhaps able to finish off the last opposing wolf with a night kill? And I guess knowing the kill order could be relevant with just two wolf packs as well.

Either way, if two or even three wolf packs are in the process of duking it out, I see no reason to interrupt them. I will throw my weight behind the Ichabod wagon for now, though. His massive exposition about Commodore and Tasunke seems a little too insightful about the game setup. In other words, he knows too much.

This is the first time I see the 3-wolf pack possibility being brought forward in the last 1000 posts. Why is that happening? I guess because every villager realized a 3 wolf pack setup is incredibly unlikely and the only ones who think that is a good idea are the wolves (who are faking villagers) who planned to do that "grey wolf announcement".

Why a 3 pack game is unlikely?

1st. NobleHelium asked specifically if we wanted a 1 or 2 wolf pack game in the setup thread:

1) One wolf pack vs two wolf packs. Right now with 21 players it would probably be one pack of 5 or two packs of 3 (this previously said 6, I meant 6 total lol). I think either one is fine and two wolf packs is probably more interesting. Only one wolf pack would hunt each night.

Why would he make this statement (in which he asked for our oppinion too) and than make a 3 wolf pack game? I don't think NH is this type of devious person. Besides, like I said, 3 wolf packs of 3 is too much, 3 wolf packs of 2 is stupid, so the setup would be impossible to balance.

2nd. The grey wolf announcement is stupid:

Hello village, this is the Gray Werewolf Announcer. We believe there are three wolf packs.

So, let's analyse this:

a) Why would the wolves want to help the village? You could argue that since there are multiple wolf factions, this could lead to a strange wolf behaviour of giving and wanting help from the villagers, but I don't buy it.

b) The wolf announcer said that the wolves believe there are 3 wolf packs. Wolfs would know how many packs there are, they wouldn't just believe. If they wanted to give a truthful message, they'd say "There is 3 packs".

"But, Ichabod, you must be a wolf, how would you know that the wolves are sure about the number of packs otherwise?"

I'm not sure, it's just very, very likely that the wolves know the number of packs, because of how the night kill mechanic works. I doubt NH said to the wolves: "you can kill when I say so". He most likely said: "You are pack whatever, you can kill on the following nights". From that, you can know how many packs there are in the game, by analysing the intervals between night kills.

So, all this points to this announcement being bullshit.

c) Why on earth the GREY WEREWOLF FACTION would reveal itself? 99% of the people in this world, upon seeing the White Werewolf lynched on day 1, would believe the other pack is the Black Werewolves. Even if you disagree, keep reading, because it'll still make sense.

So, you are the member of the grey WW pack, an unlikely color. If you can night kill or you are lucky that the village kills a Black/Red/Blue werewolf, you'd be in a very good position. Why? Because all the villagers would analyse the game data as if there was only 2 packs (way, way, way more likely than a 3 pack setup). And a memeber of a 3rd pack would look almost exactly like a villager in this analysis, because he'd also be trying to get the other WW packs. THIS IS A BIG DEAL AND A BIG BOOST, WHY WOULD YOU RUIN IT WITH THAT STUPID ANNOUNCEMENT?.

But, no, our very intelligent grey wolf group prefers to reveal there are 3 packs. What on earth would they gain with that? If someone can give me a good example, I'd concede the point, but I can't see none.

In the end, the only way that this announcement makes sense is if it's cute play by the other pack (non-white) that misfired badly. I really can't see how people can think otherwise. Even the game reveals that, because the only one who brought forth this possibility in a long time was Zakalwe. I haven't seen any other player talking about how would something work in a 3 wolf pack game.

---

This leads me to believe that Zakalwe and his Non-White pack friends wanted to play cute, made that announcement that only managed to reveal to the village that the packs are likely to have similar roles, and are now trying to get something out of it. I don't buy it, though. Even Zakalwe doesn't buy it very much, saying that it's tin-foil hat theory in his post. Probably just covering the tracks when people called him on believing that announcement.

So, my suspicious against Zakalwe went very high. It's still better to lynch Commodore first, probably Tasunke after that. But please, my fellow villagers, even if I get lynched before that, go and take a look at Zak. He's not playing very villager like.

[Injera]

I know that there's been some dismissals of "wall of text" posts- by me, no less- but honestly, Ichabod's post here is mirroring my thoughts the game so far.

Commodore

But please, my fellow villagers, even if I get lynched before that, go and take a look at Zak. He's not playing very villager like.

Already planned to.

[Meiz]

Ah, nice to hear more from you, Ichabod Suspecting you got just a bit more difficult. Here's some thoughts I've been saving regarding Zak.

Said that his initial vote against MNG was even more meaningful than the 6-4 vote. But his initial reason was: "So I'll go with Mr. Nice Guy, for trying to discredit my UFO discovery.". The vote was changed later to other candidates.

He made a small case against Gaspar for defending MNG, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post240279
Layout for the future perhaps (if on the same pack with MNG)?

Attacks Bigger, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post241116
A lot of "why I'd do it as a wolf" counter-arguments, which I always find a bit suspicious if player uses it for self defense. Wolf would do it in case his packmate goes down = can use it as defense later.

In http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post241291
"I decided to bus MNG when he was tied 5-5 and could still vote to save himself. That makes no sense"

It actually makes a lot of sense, and I'd think Zakalwe would know this very well, so surprising to hear it from him.

I thought his argument against commodore was weak, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post241558
"For me, the only interesting thing about Uberfish' death is that the wolves risked it. If anything, that is just another point to add against Commodore, who is after all a self-proclaimed risk taker."

This would assume that Commodore would know uberfish from WW games. I think Uberfish's death was an indication for an experienced wolf player. As is Rowain's, I'd think.

One thing I was thinking earlier when reading post, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post241946
"So why did he pick Bigger, who had both newbie protection and going-away-for-a-wedding protection? He's the LAST person I would have chosen if I wanted to shift some votes off me. And who did MNG address his final post-mortem post to? Bigger. The only WIFOM question here is whether MNG made a clumsy attempt at distancing, or was trying to set him up. I don't think it was a set-up."

Maybe Zakalwe actually came up with the idea so he could use it against Bigger.

These are what I had gathered on Zak, but big part of my suspicion is also that two of our confirmed innocents (Rowain and Bigger) suspected Zakalwe quite a lot.

[strike]Ichabod[/strike] Zakalwe (yes, pointless but do yo ureally need another one for Commodore? )

[Serdoa]

[color=red]Commodore

If you have a role, now is the time to say so Commodore (well, no actually that was ~20 hours ago, but you know what I mean).

Apart from that obvious vote, I like your thoughts Meiz and see myself agreeing with them. And with Ichabod.

[Serdoa]

D'oh... Commodore

[Tasunke]

Ichabod, I really don't get why you keep telling people to lynch me after Commodore.

I mean, isn't it more logical to review the evidence after Commodore is lynched?

I mean, if he is a wolf watcher, then certainly I would be a logical second pick ... but because I KNOW* he is not one, don't you think when he turns up as Announcer/roleblocker/whatever ... that then would be a good time to review the evidence to see if a lynch against me is really worth it?

*I mean I don't know of course, but why would Noble Helium have 3 watchers in the game? I mean, I guess only one wolf pack could have watcher vs village's watcher, but I think it is FAR more likely that there is only a village watcher, and the wolves do not have this role. I also think that if Tracker is in this game, it is likely on the side of village. I mean is it possible for a wolf to be tracker? (i have no idea) ... But Noblehelium seems to be in the habit of giving all investigative roles to the Village (other than, I would assume, some kind of role-identifying power).

Yes, the Zakalwe thing is interesting, and I am wondering about why both he and Jkaen seem to be a bit less helpful than I would think they would be ... but this has nothing to do with logic (at the moment).

So Ichabod, why are you putting a foot in your mouth? I mean, IF you think Commodore's death result will have no affect on whether I am lynched next day or not ... why would you bother to lynch Commodore first at all? Just so that I could get an extra Watch in? Yes I would be glad to survive another night, and watch for wolves, but if you really think I am a wolf then why should the order matter?
-> It is good that you bring up the possibility of 'alternatives' because it is a good thing to not have our blinders on ... but then you keep hammering the point of "yea, lets go ahead and vote Commodore-> Tasunke for the hell of it"

I mean yes, I can see that you are pressured by being near the gallows, but really? Wouldn't it be more logical to say that we will get a lot of information on Day 1 (and maybe Day 2) once we know Commodore's alignment. This would fit very closely with the "lets look for alternatives" model.

My own argument for lynching Commodore is that I highly doubt he is anything other than wolf and the vanilla claim is just a bluff (and further proof of wolfishness). However I also think that we could get some information after his death. And since I doubt he is a watcher, I doubt this new information will incriminate me at all. I mean hell, it might even help clear me for all I know.

The point is, I don't see why you keep tying Commodore with myself. I mean, the cases aren't even at all similar. I feel that the case against Commodore is more based on logic (this seems the only option) while the case against me seems to be more emotional (he seems to be acting very duplicitous, fishy, etc).

I mean really, mentioning it once or twice was "whatever, stream of conciousness bleh" but to keep repeating the points makes me think that you are intentionally tying me to Commodore somehow, like some sort of "If commodore is good enough to hang today, then Tasunke is good enough to hang tomorrow" ... while I personally think that this is an absurd notion. There seems to be some actual evidence towards Commodore's wolfishness (the vanilla claim). If I had to add an emotional addition to the case against Commodore, it is that his level of calm and his bluffs (about being vanilla) seem to be coached, and seem highly unlikely if village. I mean, why not claim when he very well may have died?

Because claiming "announcer" or some such would mean 100% chance for death, while thanks to Lewwyn's tie fixation, and Gaspar not voting a real vote, he managed to scrape by with a 50% chance to live ... and lucked out.

I definitely think that we should hang Commodore today, and then review the evidence tomorrow to see who the most likely candidate is.

Hopefully between Commodore's data, my watch, and the night kill, we will have enough data to start some real full fledged wolf hunting.

[Ichabod]

Ichabod, I really don't get why you keep telling people to lynch me after Commodore.

I mean, isn't it more logical to review the evidence after Commodore is lynched?

I mean, if he is a wolf watcher, then certainly I would be a logical second pick ... but because I KNOW* he is not one, don't you think when he turns up as Announcer/roleblocker/whatever ... that then would be a good time to review the evidence to see if a lynch against me is really worth it?

*I mean I don't know of course, but why would Noble Helium have 3 watchers in the game? I mean, I guess only one wolf pack could have watcher vs village's watcher, but I think it is FAR more likely that there is only a village watcher, and the wolves do not have this role. I also think that if Tracker is in this game, it is likely on the side of village. I mean is it possible for a wolf to be tracker? (i have no idea) ... But Noblehelium seems to be in the habit of giving all investigative roles to the Village (other than, I would assume, some kind of role-identifying power).

Yes, the Zakalwe thing is interesting, and I am wondering about why both he and Jkaen seem to be a bit less helpful than I would think they would be ... but this has nothing to do with logic (at the moment).

So Ichabod, why are you putting a foot in your mouth? I mean, IF you think Commodore's death result will have no affect on whether I am lynched next day or not ... why would you bother to lynch Commodore first at all? Just so that I could get an extra Watch in? Yes I would be glad to survive another night, and watch for wolves, but if you really think I am a wolf then why should the order matter?
-> It is good that you bring up the possibility of 'alternatives' because it is a good thing to not have our blinders on ... but then you keep hammering the point of "yea, lets go ahead and vote Commodore-> Tasunke for the hell of it"

I mean yes, I can see that you are pressured by being near the gallows, but really? Wouldn't it be more logical to say that we will get a lot of information on Day 1 (and maybe Day 2) once we know Commodore's alignment. This would fit very closely with the "lets look for alternatives" model.

My own argument for lynching Commodore is that I highly doubt he is anything other than wolf and the vanilla claim is just a bluff (and further proof of wolfishness). However I also think that we could get some information after his death. And since I doubt he is a watcher, I doubt this new information will incriminate me at all. I mean hell, it might even help clear me for all I know.

The point is, I don't see why you keep tying Commodore with myself. I mean, the cases aren't even at all similar. I feel that the case against Commodore is more based on logic (this seems the only option) while the case against me seems to be more emotional (he seems to be acting very duplicitous, fishy, etc).

I mean really, mentioning it once or twice was "whatever, stream of conciousness bleh" but to keep repeating the points makes me think that you are intentionally tying me to Commodore somehow, like some sort of "If commodore is good enough to hang today, then Tasunke is good enough to hang tomorrow" ... while I personally think that this is an absurd notion. There seems to be some actual evidence towards Commodore's wolfishness (the vanilla claim). If I had to add an emotional addition to the case against Commodore, it is that his level of calm and his bluffs (about being vanilla) seem to be coached, and seem highly unlikely if village. I mean, why not claim when he very well may have died?

Because claiming "announcer" or some such would mean 100% chance for death, while thanks to Lewwyn's tie fixation, and Gaspar not voting a real vote, he managed to scrape by with a 50% chance to live ... and lucked out.

I definitely think that we should hang Commodore today, and then review the evidence tomorrow to see who the most likely candidate is.

Hopefully between Commodore's data, my watch, and the night kill, we will have enough data to start some real full fledged wolf hunting.

Tasunke, you can see from my posts that I prefer to lynch Commodore before you. That's why I'm voting for him. You can also see that I pointed out the possible railroading that could be happening, which means we should think beyond the simple "lynch Commodore/Tasunke and that's it". And, finally, you can see that I already said that the Commodore lynch will give a new light to day 1, which can lead to a new interpretation of that day.

The only way in which I'm linking Commodore to you is the following: if Commodore is a wolf watcher, you are a wolf. That's the only way in which I see the result of Commodore's lynch directly influencing in your case. The case against you, at least the one I made, is based on the fact that your role, as you described, would be imbalanced towards one of the wolf factions (since I believe there's only 2 of them).

But then people started saying that I was trying to save you by lynching Commodore. No, I suspect you and I find you a good target, amongst others. Right now, my vote is on Commodore. On the next day, I may or may not vote for you. It depends.

Of course I'm going to reevaluate things on day 4. There's a lot of things that can happen inbetween. Commodore can be a watcher, a watcher may be killed by the wolves, I may be killed by the wolves, you might find a wolf with a watch, there's a lot of things that will matter if I'll vote for you or not tomorrow. The thing is, like I already explained a couple of times, I find voting for Commodore a better thing right now.

[Commodore]

*halfway convincing attempt to buy Ichabod cover*

Heh. Nicely distanced there, sir, you're taking that bullet very nicely for your senior wolf.

Hopefully between Commodore's data, my watch, and the night kill, we will have enough data to start some real full fledged wolf hunting.

We'll have plenty of data to start that wolf hunt, 'aight, Tasunke.

So a funny story about that null role claim. I actually somehow missed it in Noble's PM. I realize that sounds kind of absurd and like a complete and total lie, but it's true.

[zakalwe]

I'm not even sure where to begin with Ichabod's sputtering accusations. It all just reads as a massive NO U to me. My suspicions against Ichabod aren't based on some careful logical analysis of all possible role constellations. He just seems way too certain about how things are going to play out here, as if he is positioning himself to look good somehow. (How? I don't know. I don't know what's going to happen when Commodore flips.)

How would I know they are wolves? The only way I could know that someone is a wolf is if I belong to his pack. Or are we supposed to believe that the packs know each other? That would be ridiculous.

See above. I don't have a specific answer, because I don't know. In general, I think the wolves would have an easier time picking out the other wolves, because they're sitting on much more information. All I have said is that I get the feeling that you know.

About the potential for three wolf packs; I agree it seems unlikely, I also believe that the announcement was a clear attempt at misdirection, and I'm pretty sure I have voiced those opinions earlier. That doesn't stop me from speculating about why Ichabod behaves like he does, and it struck me that knowing the kill order would be a critical piece of information, which would explain why he is so adamant about the order in which people should hang. In retrospect, I think that line of thought is equally valid in a two-pack setup, but when I first thought about it, it was in the context of three packs, so that's why it came out the way it did. I don't think your argument that the first person to consider a three pack scenario must be a wolf is a very good one.

This whole post doesn't make sense if you read it carefully. Zakalwe's voting for me, because he thinks I'm a wolf wanting to lynch other wolves in a particular order. What? And why vote me, then? Wouldn't it be better to lynch the other targets that he also suspects, since my guilty depends on their guilty?

Umm.. yeah, I think it's been patently clear for some time now that Commodore will hang today. But I think this day would be a lot less interesting to look back on if everybody just parked their votes there right away. We certainly got you talking, that's for sure.

So yeah... in summary, I don't really know what you're up to here but I guess it will become apparent soon enough. Let's just lynch Commodore and take it from there.