Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[NobleHelium]

Official Vote Count - Day 3
Deadline has passed

Commodore (15) - Catwalk, Gaspar, Ichabod, Injera, Jkaen, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Molach, novice, pindicator, pling, Sareln, Serdoa, Tasunke, zakalwe
Tasunke (1) - Commodore
zakalwe (1) - Meiz

[NobleHelium]

Today Mr. Bod and the Watcher were brought up again.

But soon it was evident to everyone that the commodore's wounds were grave and that he would not survive. So nearly everyone agreed that he should be euthanized and he was voted off the island.

The Booming Voice returned, nodded, and suddenly the commodore vanished into a puff of smoke. As the smoke lingered and ascended to the sky, they seem to form some words...

You are a member of the black werewolf pack.

You have the following personal ability:

Tracker - During the night, you may target a person and learn whom he targeted. If that person targeted more than one person that night, you will only learn one of his targets. You cannot use this ability if you used it the previous night.

Commodore the Tracking Black Werewolf was lynched.

Night 3 has begun.

[Tasunke]

Interesting ... so the wolves have Trackers. Hmm.

[Injera]

Alright Thanks for playing Commodore.

Excellent call Ichabod.

[Lewwyn]

Interesting ... so the wolves have Trackers. Hmm.

, just

[Ichabod]

Interesting ... so the wolves have Trackers. Hmm.

Alright Thanks for playing Commodore.

Excellent call Ichabod.

, just

Well, Tasunke claims he's a watcher, not a tracker. So, it's not dooming evidence against Tasunke yet. Like I said, it's easy to mistake this powers (I made the mistake myself sometimes).

But...

This reminds me of something...

Please, everyone, read posts 778 to 782. Here's the posts, but the quotes don't show when you quote a post, so it's better to look at the originals.

Interesting ... so the wolves have Trackers. Hmm.

Alright Thanks for playing Commodore.

Excellent call Ichabod.

Ok, let's give some comments after finally reading through the day.

I was worried after seeing the bigger mislynch that we might have been railroading things to a wolf victory: after bigger, it was kind of obvious that we needed to lynch commodore, after that, Tasunke, and so on. If these guys are villagers, we would be in trouble. It's pretty obvious that there's not a lot of new candidates being brought forth.

But Molach post made me realize something. So, let's talk about Tasunke:

I was feeling that Tasunke was indeed an innocent being framed. His power limitation was believable to me and I didn't agree that it was some sort of lie. Especially his day 1 claim seemed strange to be done as a wolf.

But heer's what Molach made me see. Tasunke's power would imbalance the setup towards one of the wolf factions (it's extremely likely that we have 2 wolf factions, I think). Why is that? Because not using his power every night it is avaiable would be bad village play. There's no reason to wait two days without using it, except if we know that we killed all wolves that would have a night kill in a certian night. So, that being said, Tasunke would always track the white or the other color faction, whateveer goes first.

This would make the game imbalanced. And I don't think NH would do it. Why? Because of the 2 wolf announcers. It's likely that the wolves have the same power roles, showing that NH intend the game to be balanced.

Now, Mardoc says that he has a similar limitation to Tasunke. Does this clear Tasunke? I don't think so, mainly because of the watcher role he claims. A seer that can go only once every two nights, for example, is not imbalanced towards a wolf faction, because the power doesn't support itself in finding a wolf attack. A watcher role, on the other hand, does.

So, everything points out that Tasunke is a wolf watcher? No, there are some counter arguments:

1. If you take out the assumption that the best village play of the watcher role is to use it everynight, my theory goes Boom! In the end, what really matters is how NH sees it? I think it's hard to believe a watcher wouldn't watch every day, but what do other think?

2. If Tasunke is a wolf watcher, there's likely a second wolf watcher around, for balance reasons. So, there would be a chance that the other wolf group would have killed Tasunke one night, to get rid of an opponent wolf. I doubt they'd do that, though. First, because there could be baner protection on the claimed power role. Second, because they could think killing a wolf this early would be bad (I doubt both wolf teams can win together). Third, because maybe there's only 2 wolves per faction and if Tasunke was paired with MNG, that'd mean one less nightkill every 3 days, assuming that how's the setup work (which implies 3 wolf factions and leads to point 3.)

3. If there's 3 wolf groups, the watcher role as stated by Tasunke could make sense. It'd end up getting all wolf factions if used each possible night, which may be considered balanced. I doubt it, though.

So, Tasunke's power limitation really does not make sense with a villager watcher, because it'd be imbalanced against a wolf faction.

Does that mean we should lynch Tasunke today? Maybe not. Next post I'll talk about Commodore.

Why Commodore may be a better lynch today?

He claims to be a vanilla villager. I don't believe this claim until I see another vanilla villager claim. Why? Because Rowain's power is really, really bad and it's definetely a filler role.

But, why would Commodore claim a vanilla villager? Why not claim his wolf role, which he probably has (assuming he's a wolf)? Because the wolf factions are likely to be balanced. So, if he's the wolf announcer or the wolf tracker of his team, claiming would be suicide, so he couldn't do it.

So, by lynching Commodore today, we might be lucky and hit another watcher wolf, which would make Tasunke the obvious target for the next lynch. If he's a vanilla villager, we could give Tasunke some more time and get his Watcher result for night 3. Assuming he's a villager, we would gain something, at least.

So, I'd prefer lynching Commodore over Tasunke today. But that's not the only things I want to talk about. Because I still have a point of fear that we are being played into lynch easy targets.

Good posts by Ichabod there.

Although why do you speculate that Commodore is a tracker?

And why would that be suicide to have claimed?

In these posts I mistake Tracker with Watcher while talking about Tasunke/Commodore. Than Novice and Mardoc call me out on why I did it. I explained that it was an honest mistake. Novice seemed to have accepted it, but Mardoc followed this up by a vote against me.

So now I get it. Mardoc may have thought that I called Commodore a tracker because I knew he was one and I mistaken it with watcher. That was not the case, I really made a mistake. But to Mardoc, that explanation wasn't enough and know I see why that is. It turns out Commodore was indeed a tracker.

This leads me to believe that Mardoc is a wolf from the white team, that thought I made a slip as a wolf from team Black, talking about a tracker, that I could only know that existed if I was a wolf. It would explain why he attacked me after my posts that I think were the better ones I had made until than in the game.

Very interesting. So, Mardoc goes up in my suspect list.

[Ichabod]

Too much quotes in the above post. Disconsider the repeated ones from Injera and Tasunke, please.

[Ichabod]

And, yes, it is damn ironical that I said Commodore could be a wolf tracker in that post, while I meant watcher. It ended up being right. No wonder the wolves got mad...

By the way, Mardoc said his power has the same limitation that Tasunke's power. Commodore's tracker power also has this limitation. Maybe Mardoc is the other wolf tracker and Tasunke is innocent.

And now, day 1 will make a lot of sense. MNG and Rowain were probably set up by the black wolves to save Commodore. Lots and lots of info!

[Lewwyn]

Yeah, I also flipped tracker and watcher. Ichabod on his game.

[Tasunke]

Well ok. Now I think that there is one Watcher (me) and two Trackers. (well, now just the one tracker).

I can see how the argument could be made that one pack got Watcher and one pack got Tracker, including the fact of similar limitations, which means that I get why Lewwyn posted what he did.

Honestly I'm thinking now that all investigating roles Noblehelium gave out have a similar limitation (except for the weak Voyeur role of course).

I am really starting to wonder what the total meta-balance of the game is, but I guess
part of any 3 alignment game is an attempt to balance on the host's part and an attempt to guess the balance on the village's part.

I for one am wondering what the wolf kill order is. If it is indeed a pure 1:1 alternating scheme, then I don't understand the nature of my power's limitation, given that I am village.

On the other hand, the alternating scheme might be 1:2:2:1:1:2:2: etcetera, or even just a 50% chance flip of the coin to see who goes each night.

Assuming a pure schema (1:2:1:2:1:2) it makes me wonder if there is a second village watcher, or maybe the village seer is supposed to make up the difference?

I guess in the end, I don't really care whether I'm just watching one pack or not, as wolves are still wolves, but it does make one question the metagame of the setup.