Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[Lewwyn]

Second time I've seen vet players trying to read something into the mod's flavor text. I think that's pointless.

I usually do too. Are you disputing that there was a random lynch though?

[Jkaen]

Let me drop some more knowledge on ya folks!



The bolded text explains what commodore is a about to do. Bus himself for senior wolves.

The italics is his bullet.

Preceding this there were 4 consecutive votes onto Commodore. He knew he was going down. So why throw this out there? To give his wolf pack an excuse to switch on to him!

There were 3 people who did this. Zak, Sareln and Mardoc.

Zak posted a long post that came a minute after Commodore's post so either that was planned or it was an incidental crosspost. I'm inclined to leave that alone for now.

There are two others that switched though:



Aw you were able to help save him on Day 2 but not this time. We'll look more deeply into you later Sareln.





I guess its time? Only now Mardoc? At the very end of the day after Commodore has thrown himself on the fire? Shot himself in the head?

The thing about both Sareln and Mardoc votes is that they are short and insinuate that now that its obvious we're going to vote for Commodore. In trying to provide his wolfpack cover. Commodore has exposed them.

Lewwyn, I am not sure I follow your logic there. If commodore wanted to let the wolves know to lynch him, why didnt he just tell them in the private thread.

Also the chance he revealed 2 wolves by this i think is unlikely

[Jkaen]

How are we saying that we are sure the tie break was an honest one?

Ichabod had a tie break immune power, which clearly shows that there are powers that mess with the tie breaks. If there is a defensive version of this, why not an offensive version?

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn, I am not sure I follow your logic there. If commodore wanted to let the wolves know to lynch him, why didnt he just tell them in the private thread.

Also the chance he revealed 2 wolves by this i think is unlikely

I reread my post. There is nothing about telling his wolves to lynch him. That is NOT what I'm saying and I don't know how you came up with this.

I am saying that Commodore posted a very suspicious thing about "I missed Noble's role PM" as cover for his wolf friends. This way they could join the bandwagon late without being suspected because of this new evidence against Commodore.

And I'm betting that he told them this plan in the private thread. But that wasn't the point. Please read more carefully.

How are we saying that we are sure the tie break was an honest one?

Ichabod had a tie break immune power, which clearly shows that there are powers that mess with the tie breaks. If there is a defensive version of this, why not an offensive version?

I'm not disputing that there are powers that mess with tiebreaks. And in the end it doesn't matter because we ended up lynching BOTH of the people who were tied. However, there is no evidence that the tiebreak was not simply random. In every past game that we have had an ability add a vote or subtract a vote there has been evidence on the final vote tally of said power. There was none here. And again... it doesn't really matter since we lynched both.

Also about Ichabod's ability, I have one of the abilities that he could have claimed. I'm sure there are two other people with the other two abilities. And no I'm not going to tell you which ability I have.

[Molach]

Have some time now. Will be off limits rest of day (RL) due to brass band contest, -concert and -party. Yay. Back up sunday, after the Duntishness wears off.

So, I had some beers yesterday and was actually awake to see the kill (on my phone). Saw that Lewwyn jumped in to accuse Mardoc.

My gut reaction was that this was a set-up. Then I thought about the WIFOM-reverse psychology thing but in teh end decided that it would be too much of a gamble for Mardocs pack to nightkill Ichabod. So either Mardoc is in the other pack, or he is innocent.
Mardoc so far:
Made a case against Pling day 1 (fishy vote against meiz) - he started it on his own.
Then joins Jkaen, Lewwyn and uberfish on commodore.
Then follows Ichabod and Meiz with vote on pindicator.
Agrees with Rowain that Zakalwe is acting un-zakalwish this game, but without a vote.
Then big post against MNG when MNG is at 6 votes, no vote.
Post against pindicator again.
Final vote for MNG (in a landslide)
Post against commodore again.
---
Vote against pling day 2
(was voted for by commodore)
Agrument against zak again

Bah don't have more time, need to write some of my thoughts too. Still 40 posts to skim through. Also have to see them in context, who is already accusing who at the time.
But anyway, during day 2 I had a slight uneasy feeling about him, felt he was just going along with others. But I might be off on that, and I didn't look into it thoroughly enough I guess. Yes time is too precious these days.
From the bit I re-read just now it seems that Zakalwe and Pindicator and Pling would have been interesten in framing Mardoc

What's peoples thought on the probablility of either:
A) Mardoc is wolf whose pack just killed ichabod, with an eye to claiming "too obvious frame"
B) Mardoc is in rival pack and being framed.
C) Mardoc is innocent and being framed.

I'm leaning away from A personally, voting so far seems to indicate the play failed miserably...people were almost waiting in line to lynch Tasunke, but now a pile on M. Difference between B and C, mabye rival wolf pack has some info which somehow lead them to conclude Mardoc has to be a wolf? Mabye the every-other day thing, mabye something Icha said. If wolves are framing him we take the gift and move on, I suspect we have had plenty help from the rival wolfpack in both our lynches so far. I'm hoping he is a wolf, that would also give us a good idea of which pack is hunting which night. But I'm torn on the issue. He did go against both MNG and Commodore, so hard to guess which color wolf he might be. Only damning thing in my eyes is his claiming of every-other night power. But that was again claimed with no pressure against him, so why that claim to make him appear guilty?

For my part, after Ichabods effort last night I was very sure of his villagerness, so it would either way make sense to kill him. Leave silent and stupid villagers for the endgame. So I wonder a bit about Gaspars "Multiple packs really changes the calculus. Crazy to kill someone who had as much suspicion as Ichabod normally"
Mabye I just don't understand. Do you think Ichabod was suspicious, and it was crazy to kill him?

Lewwyn - your line of posts after night seems to indicate that you are not with the pack that killed ichabod just now. So 50% cleared in my eyes. They would never kill for a frame then follow right up with a vote on the framée. They would really wait and just go along like Zak or Meiz or novice just now.

Tasunke, are you saying noone visited Serdoa last night? Is that correct?

Will be back in a few hours for a vote after more input, but need to eat now.

[Lewwyn]

What's peoples thought on the probablility of either:
A) Mardoc is wolf whose pack just killed ichabod, with an eye to claiming "too obvious frame"
B) Mardoc is in rival pack and being framed.
C) Mardoc is innocent and being framed.

I had considered B as well. I'm leaning towards A personally, but that is not the reason that I am voting for him or think he's a wolf. Hopefully its clear that no matter if he was framed or if he fake-framed himself I simply think he's a wolf based on past behavior, voting history and posts. And I think it becomes much less important to talk about whether he was framed or not because the case against him is not based on that.

[Meiz]

What's peoples thought on the probablility of either:
A) Mardoc is wolf whose pack just killed ichabod, with an eye to claiming "too obvious frame"
B) Mardoc is in rival pack and being framed.
C) Mardoc is innocent and being framed.

I'm leaning away from A personally, voting so far seems to indicate the play failed miserably...people were almost waiting in line to lynch Tasunke, but now a pile on M.

I think it's probably B or C, leaning towards B. Because I think Ichabod's points regarding the watcher/tracker confusion is quite good.

Difference between B and C, mabye rival wolf pack has some info which somehow lead them to conclude Mardoc has to be a wolf?

But the rival pack wouldn't necessarily need to see Mardoc as a wolf. It would be a perfect chance to take out very skilled player (Ichabod) while painting Mardoc in bad light. Win-win.

I'm hoping he is a wolf, that would also give us a good idea of which pack is hunting which night. But I'm torn on the issue. He did go against both MNG and Commodore, so hard to guess which color wolf he might be.

My guess would be that if Mardoc is a wolf, he'd be in the white pack. Otherwise his loud criticism regarding wolf announcement would look quite odd.

[Catwalk]

A) Mardoc is wolf whose pack just killed ichabod, with an eye to claiming "too obvious frame"
I'm leaning away from A personally, voting so far seems to indicate the play failed miserably...people were almost waiting in line to lynch Tasunke, but now a pile on M.

I find this reasoning highly suspicious Molach. You're saying A is unlikely because it didn't work out that way? The wolves would not be able to predict people's reaction, and there was no telling if the kill would lead to more or less suspicion on Mardoc. Furthermore, there were other reasons for suspecting Mardoc than the kill. I didn't find his crusading against Ichabod to be credible, a villager should not be that certain of something that few others are considering. Keep prodding and discussing suspicions yes, but his comments about "now I only need to convince the rest of the sadly ignorant players about my brilliant insights about evil wolf Ichabod" were just way off.

I agree we shouldn't spend all day on Mardoc, but I consider him a strong lynch candidate. I will try to be active, but I have little time over the next couple days.

[Mardoc]

Well, ok, now I do see why the wolves wanted to kill Ichabod.

And you're all a bunch of idiots for buying it :neenernee. But, hey, more time for FFH. I'll spend some time today to make up a last will and testament.

[Serdoa]

If you are not a wolf Mardoc, next time, think about your reaction before you post it. Because that did certainly not help suspect you any less.

Mardoc