Well, we now know that Black clan was hunting on night 4. We are one step closer to confirming the kill order and getting even more information!
Seeing Pling's power, I am far less confident that each team is is same as the other.
Honestly, if I was a villager other than myself, I would be inclined to think that I was the last wolf of the white clan. Which of course makes me a bit nervous, but as I already had a hefty amount of suspicion anyways, I suppose it doesn't much affect the meta.
So we have Announcer + Kill Blocker + X1 vs. Announcer + Tracker + X2
I am inclined to think that X2 is another 'block' of some kind. Either a roleblocker, or another kill blocker, or a
redirector.
Zakalwe being a black wolf also fits into my theory that, if white clan was alive, they may have killed me tonight to frame Zakalwe. (which is a fairly thin, but was part of my thought process earlier-> namely of hoping the Whites would kill me in order to frame Zak (who I did actually think, and still think, is a wolf))
As for X1 ... maybe a role-seer? After reading beginning of first werewolf game, I think that role is called Devil?
On the other hand, it could make sense that X2 is a Devil, and saw Pling's kill blocker ability and got scared-> hence the kill.
This would also make sense because, with the village assumption that the two teams were symmetrically balanced, I see no reason for the wolves to think otherwise, and if they had this assumption, then they wouldn't think Pling could be a wolf. Therefore they made the kill and accidentally killed on of the other clanmembers.
Assuming X2 is a Devil, then *yes* there is the possibility that Zakalwe could be X1 due to the lack of wolf-symmetry ... but I find the entire situation rather inplausible (if X2 was the Devil).
Why? Because as we know, team Black was hunting last night. If Zakalwe was innocent/white wolf, then team Black would possibly have been tempted to frame Zakalwe by lynching myself (or Meiz, or Injera).
Therefore, while it is possible that either wolf clan would be hesitant to attempt another framing, I would find it hard to believe that Zakalwe is our X1.
Therefore I think Zakalwe is either X2 (likely) or innocent (less likely).
Of course if Meiz was in Zakalwe's pack, and had a power that enabled him to tell who all had targeted him each night (or at least for the one night Zakalwe claimed), then Zakalwe, as announcer, would be able to fake claim his redirector power.
If, of course, there is someone that was redirected, come forward and disprove the Meiz/Zakalwe for team Black_Werewolf theory.
My theories are based on two primary assumptions and 1 basic knowledge.
The two assumptions are that 1) the wolves would be willing to make another frame attempt, 2) Zakalwe is a wolf.
The 1 basic knowledge is that 1) I am village watcher
However I think that there is some room for error (looking at possible scenarios for if Zakalwe is innocent). And in that case, my first assumption (wolves looking to frame Zakalwe) would still hold.
So as I was saying ...
Team Black was hunting tonight ... and IF Zakalwe is a wolf, he is on team black. (a possible X2 candidate ... or even Black Announcer candidate if my Meiz hypothesis is true)
Another interesting result from tonight is that there is, very likely, only one white wolf remaining. Then the main question becomes "what role does X1 have?"
Which at its heart is really a question of "Are the two packs actually copies and/or mirrors?"
If mirror, then I would think I would be the likeliest of candidates for X1. However since I know that I am village, I am leaning towards thinking that "mirror" is much less possible now.
If exact copy ... then X1 is Tracker and X2 is Killblocker. Obviously we won't know until after either X1 or X2 hangs.
Unfortunately as I am not X1, hanging me will not give us this information. If hanging me could help us get closer to either X1 or X2, or even Black announcer, I would be all for it, although I don't see the evidence for this. If someone can convince me otherwise, then I will stop trying to defend myself and will instead focus 100% of my efforts towards hunting for wolves during my "last day on earth" so to speak. However, currently, I do not see my death giving us enough data to plausibly condone it.
I think identical is still possible ... of course if the packs are identical, this would very likely clear Zakalwe. I just don't see Zakalwe's actions this game, when compared to his actions in WW11, to look very villagerish personally.
Therefore, with the (possibly incorrect) assumption that Zakalwe indeed a wolf of some nature, the packs are very likely to be of an assymetric nature.
That is, Black and White packs may have 1 announcer each, but other than that are balanced in the "big picture" and not (necessarily) by way of similarity.
I think that this would allow for X1 to be a Devil and for X2 to be a Roleblocker or Redirector. Or even a number of other roles.
Obviously if X1 was Devil and X2 was roleblocker, this would still fit an "alternative mirror" theory which I think is still valid.
aka: absolute mirror would have X1 be Watcher and X2 be Roleblocker (without a kill block).
However, in an alternative mirror where the remainders can be (similar in substance, but different in effect) then X1 could be a Devil and X2 could be a Redirector.
Of course, with pure asymmetry, we would not gain much evidence from the metagame. Also, with pure asymmetry this would symultaneously clear both Zakalwe and Myself. (well, it would theoretically clear Zakalwe, it would depend if NobleHelium has the same mentality as I when it comes to alternative-mirror vs assymetry)
In summary: Due to my own logical process, it would appear that I am the most likely candidate for X1. Only I know that this is not the case. Therefore I think the only other two possibilities are Alt.Mirror and Asymmetric.
As Asymmetric would clear Zakalwe more or less, and due to my suspicions of him, I am therefore inclined to think that this is an Alt.Mirror scenario and Zak is X2 while some Devil out there is X1.
I also brought forwards an alternative Hypothesis that Zakalwe could be faking the redirector claim with the help of Meiz, leading credence that these two could possibly be the last two Black werewolves.
This is probably the only Assmetry case I would have for Zakalwe to still be a wolf (whereas, assuming he is redirector, the Alt.Mirror would be the likeliest scenario for wolf Zakalwe).
Unfortunately, unless there is a village role-seer, we have no way of knowing if there is a Devil among us (for now). The only possible evidence we have of this would be if Pling was killed due to her role. Yet if that is the case, and we have a Black Devil, Black Tracker, and Black Announcer, vs White Announcer, and White Killblocker ... then this would definitely be a case of "Asymmetry".
In this scenario (Devil, Tracker vs Killblocker + X), then X1 (last White Wolf) is likely a Roleblocker. To complete the "Blockers vs Investigators" motiff.
Final Conclusion?
no conclusive evidence yet, but for now I still have reason(s) to believe that Zakalwe is still a wolf.
On the OTHER HAND, we are closer to understanding the full set up + possibly more insight into the kill order (to be revealed over future nights?). Both definitely a positive, as the more information we have on both wolf teams the better.
So is my argument against Zakalwe very strong? No, not really. Is my innocence obvious? hardly.
What I do think this post helps us in, however, is to get closer to determine vital information about both wolf packs.
