Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[Lewwyn]

Big post by Tasunke of which the summary was:

So when I try to look at things from an outsider's perspective, vs my own personal biases, I do see one name in the overlap. That of Sareln.

Even beyond this situation I am still suspicious of Zakalwe (followed by Novice and Serdoa), but at least from the perspective of stepping back to get a fresh perspective, I think Sareln is the best choice for now.

Which I think is smart. Sareln is the weak link of the wolves left IMO.

I also want to draw attention to two other things Tasunke said in this long post:

-> Zakalwe: less contributions, one of my railroaders from Day 1, seems to prefer making cute jokes over wolf hunting. Possible?

-> Novice: other than pushing bigger, pretty quiet. Looking to lynch (or at least investigate) molach based on policy.

He wrote some quick thoughts here but I think they are very accurate descriptions of the activities of these two players. When you read them, they are out of character. Zak has been backseating and railroading, novice has gone with the flow on almost every day. Every day? Go with the flow? MNG and Comm were obvious wolves and easily landslides. Bigger and Mardoc were held in suspicion by all and easily mislynched. I'm not seeing any sort of conflict from Novice. In all cases he draws less and less attention. Today he went after Gaspar, Gaspar puts up a defense and he backs off. Gaspar was not as easily mislynched as novice thought so he moves back to Pin who was easily riled and disappeared making himself an easier mislynch.

He's hunting the weak links. Those that when separated from the herd, give up.

[Molach]

Injera.
1. No. Unless someone steps forwards and says Mod is known for such craziness.

2. Well the black announcer must lie. So do keep in mind for future, esp. if other black wolf is dead (anyone with provable claims are !black)

3. You mean nightkill. I don't understand too easy? Failing a kill is setback for wolves. Pling was not a very obvious mislynch candidate. They do want to kill prominent villagers, useful powerroles and especially proven innocents, and leave possible mislynches and sleepers/lurkers alive to be, well, mislynched and outsmarted in the endgame. With no proven innocents, they might play safe and hope village will use up charges in their powers. It did read your idea about taking out enemy pack, which must be correct, if villagers die, only a larger wolfteam guarantees victory. Equal means the random die decides. Or if 1-1, kill order. Barring powerroles. So it is possible that they knew, somehow. So not a disaster for them. Unless team white gets revenge next night.

I do also believe/assume that when pack A dies, pack B kills every night. The first dual-faction game I found on a mafia forum had that. And otherwise it leaves too much to chance in the game - if one pack (by stupid buddying/vote history) is taken out early the other are suddenly half-powered, and makes it a lot easier for village. So to avoid randomness about how many wolves from start are balanced, and actually have a reward to one pack for killing the rivals instead of it being a serious drawback.

And about kill order, I think ABABA.. is more likely, but important to keep other ways open. Random hunt could even be one. But since only ABAB.. gives us any knowledge, we should look at that and see where it takes us. Just be wary of making concrete claims based on it.

Lewwyn.
Whats your read on Tasunke if not mirror image teams? I think he might be white wolf watcher, balance to black wolf tracker. Consider that if you believe Zakalwes claim, he is not a wolf at all if packs are mirrors.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn.
Whats your read on Tasunke if not mirror image teams? I think he might be white wolf watcher, balance to black wolf tracker. Consider that if you believe Zakalwes claim, he is not a wolf at all if packs are mirrors.

That's true, and I have no idea if the wolfpacks are mirrors or not. In the end though I feel like Tasunke's early Day 1 claim was that of an innocent villager's claim. If he had a been a wolf I doubt he would have used the claim so early. You have wolfpack friends and they would have encouraged him to wait and see if they could get a bandwagon on someone else. That early of a claim is something that happens when you get a villager on the block who is scared and nervous because they are alone. When I saw Tasunke's roleclaim I immediately thought of MJW in WW2 when he claimed Baner on Day 1.

I feel like Tasunke is definitely trying to avoid being lynched though. And I think thats why he seems so scummy to everyone. They're picking up on this feeling of self-preservation. So I understand the scumminess of it all. I personally feel that he is innocent however and we have bigger fish to fry that are less of a mislynch.

[Lewwyn]

Also about Zak's claim, its the only thing keeping me from voting for him right now. I find his overall behavior and his posts to be scummy. I find his voting record scummy. The only thing that is giving me pause is the redirection. But I will say that redirection would be a GREAT tool for a wolf for trying to redirect scanners from scanning you. In either case I'm still voting novice today because I think he has really betrayed himself today.

[Injera]

I don't understand too easy?

Too risk averse. Yes, they would likely not fail or get caught going for pling, but they wouldn't gain much from it since she was playing fairly quietly. It just feels like something else was going on there that I can't figure out. It's bugging me.

[Lewwyn]

Too risk averse. Yes, they would likely not fail or get caught going for pling, but they wouldn't gain much from it since she was playing fairly quietly. It just feels like something else was going on there that I can't figure out. It's bugging me.

I think the pling kill was reasonable. She was doing her best villager impression. Posting vote tallies and trying to be helpful. To the other wolfpack she looked like a trusted villager and someone they would not be able to get lynched. Pling was simply too good at acting like a villager.

[Gaspar]

Glad I could please you, Lewwyn.

But yeah, I agree that the Brothers Kara-cryptic are the most obvious wolves today. I originally preferred novice because I believe him to be part of the white pack and I wanted to see what happened if we got them to a 3rd kill. But zakalwe betrayed himself a bit more in his interaction with me, I think, so that's where my vote is.

I'll read Molach's WoT later.

[Lewwyn]

Glad I could please you, Lewwyn.

But yeah, I agree that the Brothers Kara-cryptic are the most obvious wolves today. I originally preferred novice because I believe him to be part of the white pack and I wanted to see what happened if we got them to a 3rd kill. But zakalwe betrayed himself a bit more in his interaction with me, I think, so that's where my vote is.

I'll read Molach's WoT later.

I agree that Novice is the last White wolf. I'm okay with you staying on zak as long as we lynch one of the two today. I prefer novice myself.

[Injera]

Hmm, I just read every post from zakalwe and novice that mentioned each other. I'll compile everything later tonight but at this point I'm fine voting for either of them, too. Some interesting stuff in there.

I'll go with novice, since we have no claim information from him.

[Gaspar]

Fair enough.

novice