Tasunke Wrote:As far as my power during the night, I watched Lewwyn and, to my knowledge, no one did anything to him.
Perv.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Werewolf 12: Game Thread
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Tasunke Wrote:On the other hand ... I don't see a 13-4-4 set up even if that may have been more balanced now that we know how it works. Yeah, at this point it would be almost impossible for the roles to work out to have a 13-4-4. Split factions really skew the ratio I think. Tasunke Wrote:(and this is my own inner dialogue, I haven't seen what other people have said about my own :weed: yet To be fair, my first thought when I read NH's message was, "Nice try, Black Wolf Announcer." But then I thought through it a bit. Ultimately, I believe the commentaries will judge your theories as less dank than mine.  Tasunke Wrote:With all that re-figured out, I think I am more willing to follow Gaspar onto Zakalwe ... but after arguing with myself between the two (Zak and Sareln) I am still pretty well split down the middle. At this point, I think the village is likely in a winning position, so today's vote won't matter much as long as we follow it up. I'm voting for you because I can't vote for novice, and it gives zak & Sareln a chance to prove their innocence and/or catch them in the night, and you're spent. Nothing personal, and if someone can make a strong claim for zak v. Sareln I'd be willing to switch to either.
Unless some of the Liars are somehow wolves, this should be easy to wrap up. A bit anticlimactic, really. I guess I'll vote Zakalwe - Sareln's claim is also unprovable, but he's been a good villager lately. And Zakalwe seems more capable of an early preventive fakeclaim than Tasunke.
I have to run.
Guess this clears Catwalk then. If he was announcer he never would have made that 'assimilated' post in green to appear more suspicious. Besides that would need 3 uses, and white announcer only had 2 charges.
If the remaining two wolves really are among novice, tasunke, sareln and zakalwe then we win, with 4 villagers remaining. So while any of the proven powers might be wolf power in an assymetrical setup, think we should just manage to win this. If we still have one left we get one more shot, I think? It will be a 2-1 then I'll sleep easier tonight if the white wolf is found, as the black HAS to be announcer while white throretically can be any role. So Tasunke. For failing to watch meiz. That it is black wolf's turn to kill isn't relevant to me, I firmly and finally believe that once pack A is dead, pack B hunts every night. And since I believe that Zak is a redirector he will have a shot at redirecting the next nightkill towards the real black wolf. Nothing like a bit of pressure, deflect the kill or hang.
Actually, I think the fastest way to guarantee a win here is to lynch the vengeful villager. He can then kill Me/Sareln/Tasunke, and we can proceed to lynch Novice. Novice will then act as a backup vengeful and kill another one of Me/Sareln/Tasunke, eliminating 3 of the "core" suspects in just two days, while also clearing one of the liars and thereby strengthening the claims of the other two. In effect, we would get four lynches for the price of two.
I can see why people are wavering on Tasunke, as I've been going back and forth on him myself. At this point, though, he is pretty clearly a wolf from my point of view... and even if he wasn't, I would be very tempted to see if Novice could put his ability to better use.  What I don't really get is how people can read me as more scummy than Sareln. I guess something about my play must be off, but from my own point of view it just feels like I've been playing my usual (mediocre) game. I did help lynch wolves from both packs, and I have suspected people. Sareln's "good villager" act does not impress me. His main contribution to this thread is a spreadsheet, which only shows that he is following the game state with a sharp eye, while staying in the background as much as possible. Sounds more like a wolf to me. So just to be clear, I think the remaining wolves are Sareln and Tasunke. I'm fine with lynching either, obviously. If you do end up lynching me, you should then consider the "double lynch" plan above, just to make sure we don't stumble right before the finishing line.
If you know what I mean.
@ Zakalwe, I guess you missed the Tasunke drum I was beating until last night then?
Speaking of that. I was pondering Molach's comments and I think I agree that I was a bit hasty in clearing Tasunke with the thought that the packs must be identical. Combine that with the fact that Tasunke basically didn't post for ~40 hours or so, and he just struck me as trying to lay low while the village did its mass claim and seemed to have forgotten about him. I suspect Tasunke far more than Zakalwe (see bottom of this post), and if Tasunke is a wolf, I expect the final wolf to actually be hiding with the trio of liars, since that's one of the few places that the announcer could hide. Tasunke.
Unofficial Votecount:
Zakalwe (3) - Gaspar, Tasunke, Injera Sareln (3) - Lewwyn, Zakalwe, Unknown (Serdoa) Tasunke (2) - Molach, Sareln Catwalk (2) - Jkaen, Serdoa Not Voting: Catwalk, Novice Showing Work:
Sareln
I really don't like what you are doing right now Sareln. You were pretty quiet the first days and now suddenly you start to tell us whom to vote for. Even more, you first clear Tasunke, ignore when I say that you cleared him only on assumptions but now suddenly - after Molach posted it also - realize that you were to quick to call him innocent. I think you simply try to get the village to vote for someone, anyone, as long as not you or your pack. Now, for something different: Injera Wrote:Yeah, at this point it would be almost impossible for the roles to work out to have a 13-4-4. Split factions really skew the ratio I think. Injera, Tasunke and Molach now stated that a 13-4-4 setup would not be possible. Can please one of you have the courtesy to explain WHY this is? Why can't we have a 13-4-4 setup? Lastly (and partly touching my last question): If zak is a wolf, why would he propose the idea he did, killing the vengeful villager? Yes it would kill at worst 5 villagers for 1 wolf (4 lynches, 2 nightkills). But if we have a 15-3-3 setup, then we are looking for only two wolves with a current standing of 9-2. That would get to 4-1. And as we would lynch the most suspected players, chances are that we would hit the second wolf as well. But that idea and he being a wolf would make sense in a 13-4-4 setup, with us being at 7-4 right now. That would lead to a 2-3, with the village very certainly losing. I don't think that zak would throw the game as a wolf, so either he is none or our setup is probably not 15-3-3. Just saying. Serdoa Wrote:Sareln I see you have two points here. 1. That I'm telling the village who to vote for, even though I was quiet early. 2. That I flip-flopped on Tasunke and only cited Molach, not you, so you think I'm just interested in seeing someone who is not-me lynched and I don't much care who. My answers. 1. The village just did a mass claim where we now have a ton of new information. Better yet, they're facts, not conjectures. This is a place I am pretty comfortable with. Contrast that with the early days, when most of what we have to work with is speculation. I'm not so good at that and I know it too! So naturally, yes, I am going to get progressively more opinionated and progressively louder as the game goes on. 2. Yes, I flip-flopped on Tasunke. I am allowed to change my mind aren't I? I cited Molach and not you because he is the one who convinced me that I was clearly wrong to rule Tasunke out. Let's go to the tape. Serdoa Wrote:You might be right Sareln, but I'm surprised, you yourself add several explanations for how Tasunke still could be a wolf (as less sense as they may make for us) and still instantly claim him innocent. I agree that we are certainly better off looking at other targets for now, but I certainly won't clear Tasunke completely from my suspects list just now. The way I read this post was basically: "I disagree and still suspect Tasunke and you should too because you've [Sareln] has already stated why". Contrast this with Molach's post below. Molach Wrote:'safe to assume' - 'rules out Tasunke'. Molach does a much better job of engaging me, and he focuses on the sorts of unvoiced assumptions I made in my post. This is how he gets me to reconsider my previous rashness, and this is how he gets me to change my mind. The structure is subtly but clearly different: "I think you're wrong to rule out Tasunke, even with your assumptions, here is why [your assumptions are wrong/too hasty]". Does that make sense? |
