OK, so we're undertaking another invasion. Sorry I only have one snapshot of it so I will have to describe what happened.
We were setting up to capture their fur city, Foxwoods, with cats and horse archers. The original plan was for all the units to move in along the diagonal. Of course they would have 1 turn warning (we just have to move after them on the first turn of moving into neutral lands), but with 8 cats and a bunch of attackers it's no biggie.
However! Our spy caught sight of an even better opportunity. They had pulled back 3 cats and 3 other units onto a "hidden" tile 2W1S of our planned invasion point. And you know what wrecks cats in open ground? Horse archers. So the turn of the invasion we split the 2 movers off from the main stack and sent them through the newly-roaded forest pass. The best part was this put them in range of the cats, but the cats weren't in range of them. (And at the time, there was no road 1N of the cats' position, so if they moved before us their cats would have to retreat somewhere where they could not help defend Foxwoods.
OK, so we move in after they've played. And move first the next turn too and can therefore slaughter their units, right? Right????
Nope, the RNG still hates us. I simmed this battle out beforehand and about half the time we kill every unit for no losses, the other half of the time we kill all but one redlined cat and lose one horse archer (the first one, who has to attack the spear at only 60% odds). All the units other than the spear have miniscule odds against horse archers (and then when the chariot and spear attack the catapults are already near death from flanking).
But... we missed most of our flanking rolls. So there were still two catapults left with 4.0/5 strength. And then our chariot lost it's high-odds attack and we decided not to attack with the spear, to be safe. So instead of killing all their units or all but one, we killed all but 3. The remaining cats escaped to the city as there was a worker around to build a road for them. Thankfully the most likely result of this is we get to kill them next turn anyway.
So it's now turn 3 of the attack and we bombarded down the defenses with 5 cats, and attacked with everything else, doing lots of damage and losing 1 cat and 1 axe. Next turn the city should fall.
Domestically we have teched guilds, banking (with bulb help), iron working, civil service (with bulb help), polytheism in the last 5 turns and will continue with aesthetics this turn and literature next. Then (5t after swapping to mercantilism) we will enter slavery and begin the whipping. You guys were close, our own rough guess was 40 and with some planning I revised that to
43. We may end up whipping 1-2 more or less but that's the plan, so Rowain (closest guess at 42) gets a cookie.
The actual items planned to be whipped are 2 forges, 4 courthouses and 11 knights. Those knights will be supplemented with more from Fastbond and Black Lotus (which will be getting the heroic epic imminently), and we are not whipping these two cities at all. Mind's Desire, the Moai city, and the national epic city will also not be whipped.
The island city by comparison (which you saw was size 6 in the screenshot, gaining 9f/t), will be whipped for 11 pop.
(From size 11 down to 2, building a forge, courthouse, and two knights.)