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:wink2: Zak
And Lewwyn I agree.
current population:
MNG (claimed Mason)
Bigger (claimed seer)
thestick (accused fat beta)
scooter (rowain proclaimed villager)
Tasunke
Sareln
Serdua
Injera
Jkaen
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Quote:I'm a little annoyed that we have not finished off a pack yet. That's kinda bad news - still 3 wolves to hunt and 3 packs that can kill. If the wolves don't kill each other at night, we may just have 0 mislynches left - hard to say. Anyways, I think this has a couple implications (think we may have another wolf caught), but I'll need a few hours before I can review today's posts to check my theory.
If the wolves all revealed themselves tonight, and didn't target each other, a wolf victory is assured. As long as there are no more silvers and no baners... Which I don't think there are.
Night: 9->3 wolves. Wolves kill 3 villagers.
Day: 6-> Villagers lynch a wolf. Pack destroyed.
Night: 5->2 wolves. Wolves kill 2 villagers.
Day: 3->2 wolves. The last villager gets to pick which wolf pack wins, then die at night!
Even if there was a silver, as long as they get hit on the second night then the wolves still win.
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True, but the wolves are fighting each other as well as the village. It's not village v. wolf, it's village v. fat wolves v. tall wolves v. short wolves. That's what has gotten me about this talk of the village not having a good chance; of course the village has less than 50/50 odds to win, there are 4 teams.
Suffer Game Sicko
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Quote:True, but the wolves are fighting each other as well as the village. It's not village v. wolf, it's village v. fat wolves v. tall wolves v. short wolves.
That's true. And if the wolves think they have a better than 1/3 chance of winning, it's certainly the wrong play. But I think it's highly likely that theStick gets lynched tomorrow, with Bigger probably following the day after(or vice versa). If those two are both wolves then their current odds of winning are far less than 33.3%.
But it's a hard strategy to pull the other wolves into. I think one wolf is hidden quite well, and might be loath to give up that advantage to play a pot luck one third chance of winning.
I think the village are the favourites to win here because it's so easy for the wolves to screw up their night actions. But it's possible to entirely lock them out of the game at this stage due to the way the game state currently is.
EDIT: In fact, if the wolves all come forward here, then they will also control have an equality with the village vote, assuming they remove mayor scooter from the equation. That means they could force a lynch on a villager, and give them all room to evilly backstab the next night.
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Selrahc Wrote:That's true. And if the wolves think they have a better than 1/3 chance of winning, it's certainly the wrong play. But I think it's highly likely that theStick gets lynched tomorrow, with Bigger probably following the day after(or vice versa). If those two are both wolves then their current odds of winning are far less than 33.3%.
But it's a hard strategy to pull the other wolves into. I think one wolf is hidden quite well, and might be loath to give up that advantage to play a pot luck one third chance of winning.
I think the village are the favourites to win here because it's so easy for the wolves to screw up their night actions. But it's possible to entirely lock them out of the game at this stage due to the way the game state currently is.
Exactly and that's why it may seem like I've overpowered the wolves a bit with scries and Sleepers, but really that's just barely evening the field. Right now I put the odds at 50-50 for a wolf win vs a village win.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Selrahc Wrote:EDIT: In fact, if the wolves all come forward here, then they will also control have an equality with the village vote, assuming they remove mayor scooter from the equation. That means they could force a lynch on a villager, and give them all room to evilly backstab the next night.
 If the wolves all claimed wolf tonight, they could coordinate which villagers to kill, kill three villagers and then lynch a villager in broad daylight. Then either say they are going for a draw and kill off the remaining villagers or backstab each other for the win. But see I don' think they'll do it because they''re all fighting each other. Awesome.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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I'm waiting for someone to put these posts together in the game thread. I bet scooter does
Bigger Wrote:Consider this: Rowain's claim was vague, he couldn't (or wouldnt) even claim Zak's tribe. My claim was very specific and spot on. This could mean 2 things, imo:
1. I am an alpha and alpha's have the ability to determine specific alignment (role-name and tribe). But Rowain was simply guessing about Zak, having scanned a villager night 2 but was willing to base his whole game on Zak being an alpha wolf
2. I have a different scan ability than Rowain. Rowain reported all he knew, but the alpha wolf's scan abilities (I think its safe to assume the other 2 alpha wolf's have the same ability as Rowain, no?) are slightly weaker than my ability. Anyway if this is true I must be village.
Which seems more likely to you?
Bigger Wrote: so does that mean Rowain really did guess about Zak?
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Well it's very very obvious so I expect SOMEONE to see it.
Btw I think Zakalwe and his mystery alpha gave it a very good try today. Maybe they could even have succeeded with more villagers actually participating in the game.
I have to run.
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Wtf @ zak flipping zeta. No wonder he figured he might be able to save himself since Rowain inaccurately called him an alpha.
I guess this probably the "Bigger is an alpha wolf protecting zakalwe" theory true. the other wolves likely won't bother to kill him because the village will probably take care of him. With that said I expect them to hunt each other tonight and push for Bigger's lynch next day. (and MNG might be ignored for today since he's the only confirmed town and probably not perceived as a threat.)
Scooter is likely to die because mayor becomes a big trump card with so few players remaining if one of the wolves can get themselves elected.
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