WW14 - The Edge of Reason

[novice]

might make a good lurker lynch

[Sareln]

Blargl. Yesterday had a meeting from hell (4+ hours is too long!) and just burnt me out of anything other than sleeping yesterday.

For future reference, I TA a lab around lynch-time MWF, so there will be some lynch-times where I simply won't be around.

Reading over the tail end of day 1 and into the beginning of day 2, I really don't like the last second push from JKaen to try and get TT lynched, just feels like he was trying to pick up a "free" unjustified lynch. If it all goes pear shaped and TT turns up villager JKaen can just do the metaphorical shrug and go "oh well, it was just a thought".

Counterbalancing that though, is the fact that VM flipped innocent. I don't think it makes much sense for JKaen to try and derail that if he's a wolf, and the final vote wasn't close for a panic move I think if Bigger is a (non-vegetarian) wolf.

Waterbat's post-restriction claim does a lot of explain the odd reads on him from yesterday. I think it's okay to give that a rest for now.

Mattimeo, you say you think JKaen is most suspicious now, but how do you square him making that last minute gambit with being a wolf since VM flipped innocent?

[Twinkletoes89]

I may be able to help you with that Sareln.

There are 2 main reasons why it would have been sensible for a wolf Jkaen to do what he did:

1 - VM is a wolf, he is making a last ditch attempt to save him -> proven untrue

2 - VM is innocent and going to hang regardless, so makes a token effort to try and convince people to go after someone else so he can avoid any suspicion that falls on those seen as responsible for the mislynch by claiming he tried to prevent it -> Very possible?

[slowcheetah]

Pretty busy day today, I've been following along but haven't really had time to comment, and have now forgotten what everyone said. So I'm reading back through now:neenernee.


Here's a few thoughts as I go through

Bigger said:

I do want to say something about Zak. All day 1 I had flashbacks to day 2 of ww12. I felt the same bandwagon forming on me based on scant evidence and picking apart my words. Zak was a big part of that wagon, and if he was guilty this time I feel he would have used VM's crusade early to get me mislynched. The fact that he spent time defending me makes me suspect him very little.

If both you and VM are villagers why would WolfZak care which bandwagon won?


Rowain said

And now for something different

slowcheetah

Reading through, you want clarification on why I switched from VM to Bigger.

Post 243 explains my reasoning (the main bulk of the post is nested quotes so I haven't put it up fully. To flesh out, my argument on why Bigger seemed guilty was based on his initial comments mainly involving met issues and his jokey votes (post 114), this seemed to tally into how I looked to play wolf in 11. But it was a thin premise to base an entire case on, and I thought Zak and Pindicators points about VM late on were stronger. So I switched.

Molach said:

Slowcheetah has been asking people (too much?) "what do you think/mean about this/that" which is investigative but want to get a read on you aswell.

Don't both villagers and wolves want to get reads on people?

[slowcheetah]

Twinkletoes

He was in the group of lurkers day 1 (Sareln, Injera, Molach etc), although he did have real life reasons for his absence. But I was looking through the lurkers postings at the end of day 1 and he was the one who kept pinging.

I want to be able to vote and be sure in my head that should I not be able to come back on before a deadline, I would be able to defend it.

His reason for not voting was needing to 'defend' the vote, this still seems wolfy to me. Villagers vote knowing they are innocent, it seems strange to value the security of your votes over pressure on wolves.

He then voted for Sareln, who had admittedly been quiet:

Least impressive in the sense that I find it hardest to think of any contribution to conversation that you have made. There are others who have done little, but yours was the name I went with as being slightly less - partially because of a vote count post which for me normally suggests an attempt to inflate post count and visibility without contributing anything - especially as uberfish has provided many for us anyway.

That's my reasoning, its not set in stone while I am awake, but I want to see what you can come up with and try and get you to engage.

The post count posts Sareln does seem to be standard for him, voting for him primarily for that reason seems 'safe' again. Although admittedly only slightly.

The voting an hour late seems an honest mistake, however he then said this.

Also, I got the timings wrong. I thought there was nearly an hour to go so that there was still a possibility of a late vote swing to bigger.

I was obviously wrong, but that was my thinking.

I'm assuming that you thought that bigger was a better target than VM? So why vote Jkaen if that's the case. Again 'safe'.

Twinkletoes is looking wolfy to me, so here's some pressure.

[zakalwe]

Injera: I did ping when I noticed the vote on mattimeo (along with mine at the time). Then voted Meiz, before ending on Bigger.

"Lay low, STFU, and let someone lynch themselves."

Injera

[Bigger]

so waterbat's restriction is that he has to disagree with everything?

I'm not sure how that clears him, it wasn't the disagreeing that made him suspicious to me (indeed, I barely noticed it until his reveal post). And in any case it seems likely with 3 restriction at least one of them would be a wolf (unless the wolves are weak in other ways - they have no power roles beyond the night kill, or perhaps there are only 3 of them) and the restrictions weaken the village to balance out???

In any case, tonight I will reread waterbat's posts with his restriction in mind to see if I still suspect him.

I also find Injera suspicious, just not yet ready to switch off waterbat.

[pindicator]

Zak, I thought you were novice there at first glance

[pindicator]

You know what zak, I'm on board with that plan

Injera

I need to re re-read waterbat posts anyway in light of his restriction. Although I am still waiting for him to respond to the question I've asked him twice, but maybe his restriction ties into that fact.

[zakalwe]

Zak, I thought you were novice there at first glance

Yeah... I was trying to get into his head, and see things from his perspective.