WW14 - The Edge of Reason

[Mattimeo]

...should probably have mentioned in my previous post that I'm wandering off to sleep soon-ish, hence why voting now. Unless I somehow develop the ability to meaningfully contribute to internet werewolf games in my sleep, I don't know that you're likely to get much out of me 'til after deadline.

[pindicator]

Certainly.

He first tripped my radar with the late vote, which I feel was an attempt to capitalise on the discussion of me at the time to have a 'safe' vote away from the two lynch targets to avoid suspicion. Also by being someone calling for a swing to a third party, he covers himself against a mislynch because he could argue that he was trying to get someone else lynched. This would also cover him if Bigger had been the main candidate for lynch today and (possibly) mislynched. Therefore I start to see him as a candidate for trying to be a 'deep-cover' wolf.

There were a number of people expressing doubt at the end of Day 1 of VM and Bigger being guilty. Do you suspect them too? That's what worries me - not that jkaen is getting heat for it, but that only jkaen is getting heat for it.

Since then, he decides to vote for me effectively because waterbat offered him a deal to do so and has not really had to justify it as waterbat is taking the heat on that.

Personally I take this as an indictment against waterbat, not jkaen. Jkaen was in self-preservation mode earlier in the day, much like you are now. So waterbat appears to have taken advantage of that.

Add to this waterbat's seeming attempt to try and prove Jkaen's innocence when he is pretty much out of the firing line just seems to scream at me that there is a concerted attempt to get Jkaen accepted so he can go deep cover.

You're referring to post #481 - but i see that as waterbat defending himself, not jkaen.

This last post seems to set Jkaen up to be innocent whatever happens and set up another mislynch.

1 - Injera is a wolf -> Jkaen suspected him thus is villagery
2 - Injera is villager -> Move on to trying to lynch me.
3 - I am lynched and revealed innocent -> Lynch Injera and prove him innocent (maybe)

Each of these possibility buys time for the wolves which is all they need to try and secure more mislynches

Can you point me to this post? I'm trying to find it. Is this waterbat's latest? or jkaen's?

IMO it seems like you're evidence points more towards waterbat than jkaen.

[Twinkletoes89]

For "scheme tag" ( slow cheetah autocorrect ):
Blackmail, no. Check - I voted quite a bit before Jkaen showed up. I just wanted to give us data points. It tells us a lot if Jkaen refused to switch to TT. In fact, swayed by those earlier arguments, I expected this to happen. Because look at jkaen's 'I wanted to vote for TT, but I'll have to vote for injera'. I saw this as a chance to see if he (Jkaen) was indeed being truthful with that statement. The post seemed llike something a wolf would say to distance himself. Also if now TT flips wolf, helps jkaen's case. If injera flips wolf, also helps his case in my opinion. So ..... Given that Jkaen has acted thusly AND I feel one of injera or TT is probably furry, I do feel better about jkaen's innocence level.

Pin - this is the part of the post I was referring to.

I don't disagree that it also reflects badly on waterbat, but I just have the feeling that he's doing it to take the heat and give Jkaen cover. I could be wrong, I normally am, but that is the most convincing theory I have right now

[Bigger]

Reading past that to this point there seems to be quite a lot of 'co-ordination' between Bigger and Waterbat, plus maybe slowcheetah.

I think that they seem to agree with each other quite a lot and I'm wondering if something more sinister is there or if they have just got so used to working together as Germany in Diplomacy?

no, waterbat and mattimeo have both slipped and tried to talk ww with me privately. I scolded them both. matt's slips have been just trying to assure me he is a villager, waterbat's were in the "hey thats a real interesting game" vein. They are both a little newer so may not realize its a nono.

You, Molach, and rowain are also in that game and have made no attempt to talk WW to me (thank goodness).

It tells us a lot if Jkaen refused to switch to TT. In fact, swayed by those earlier arguments, I expected this to happen. Because look at jkaen's 'I wanted to vote for TT, but I'll have to vote for injera'. I saw this as a chance to see if he (Jkaen) was indeed being truthful with that statement. The post seemed llike something a wolf would say to distance himself.

this was actually part of my motivation for putting TT up as well. another was seeing how bad village lurkers were to the village in ww13. In any case I have gotten TT and mattimeo to start actively participating, which I am happy about. more information is always better for the village, imo, and I think starting a TT bandwagon has produced a lot of information, which may not all be apparent until day 3.

I do think day 1 and 2 are most about getting as much information out there as possible (and hopefully getting lucky enough to catch a wolf) to make reads more accurate on day 3+. I am much more happy about the information attained day 2 than day 1.

In any case, Lewwyn and Zak have convinced me he is probably innocent.

I would like to reconsider waterbat and Sareln on day 3, but with 80 mins to go it may be too late?? can we get an up to date count before I decide who to leave my vote on?

unvote

[Bigger]

ok I guess I'll do it

Injera (6) - Lewwyn Molach Novice Sareln Zakalwe mattimeo
Ttwinkletoes89 (4) - Injera Jkaen Slowcheetah Waterbat
Jkaen (1) - TT89
Sareln (1) - Pindicator
Waterbat (1) - Rowain

given that, i can get behind an Injera lynch. He could be guilty, and would be a dangerous wolf, much moreso than any of the other candidates (no offense intended). Also, whether he flips scum or innocent will give me a very good idea of where to go tomorrow.

[Bigger]

also thats 7-4 injera, TT with my vote

[uberfish]

1 hour to deadline

Injera (7) - Bigger Lewwyn Mattimeo Molach Novice Sareln Zakalwe
Twinkletoes89 (4) - Injera Jkaen Slowcheetah Waterbat
Jkaen (1) - TT89
Sareln (1) - Pindicator
Waterbat (1) - Rowain

[pindicator]

Ah bigger, i just typed it up, hit preview, and you beat me to it.

I like Injera lynching today. I also want Sareln to post more than he has the last 72 hours, but I'd rather make sure there isn't a last second run on Twinkletoes because I think he's just a red herring / mislynch like zak and lewwyn think.

If Injera flips wolf I think waterbat may have been trying to save him today with different mislynch attempts on jkaen and twinkletoes89.

[Bigger]

well, Sareln is a chronic lurker . But I have no problem putting him on the block tomorrow, but lets see what the lynch and nighttime bring first.

[Rowain]

Injera (8) - Bigger Lewwyn Mattimeo Molach Novice Sareln Zakalwe Pindicator
Twinkletoes89 (4) - Injera Jkaen Slowcheetah Waterbat
Jkaen (1) - TT89
Waterbat (1) - Rowain

I find it interesting that we have 8 votes on Injera 4 on TT but that none of the other offerings (mattimeo, waterbat, Sareln etc) did gain any traction.