WW14 - The Edge of Reason

[Rowain]

So lets return to day 1:

Thats the votecount 3 hours before lynch:

Votecount

Bigger (5) - Meiz Novice Slowcheetah VM Waterbat
VM (3) - Bigger Molach Rowain
Meiz (2) - Injera Lewwyn
Waterbat (2) - Sareln Zakalwe
Jkaen (1) - Pindicator
Rowain (1) - Jkaen
Sareln (1) - Twinkletoes89
Zakalwe (1) - Mattimeo

Now pind moves (reluctantly ) onto Bigger making it
Bigger (6) - Meiz Novice Slowcheetah VM Waterbat Pindicator
VM (3) - Bigger Molach Rowain

2:30 before lynch zak moves to VM and 2 hours before lynch novice moves from Bigger to Sareln making it

Bigger (5) - Meiz Slowcheetah VM Waterbat Pindicator
VM (4) - Bigger Molach Rowain zakalwe

And 20 mins later we have pindicator, Slowcheetah and waterbat all move from Bigger to VM making it:

Bigger (2) - Meiz VM
VM (7) - Bigger Molach Rowain zakalwe Pindicator Slowcheetah Waterbat

with 70 mins left to lynch.
novice return and Injeras move to Bigger don't alter anything.

But I do want to draw attention to this little exchange:

@Injera - Who would you like people to vote towards? Your vote is currently on Meiz, i believe.

If it's a two-horse race, I think Bigger is much more likely than VM to be a wolf.

I'm a slight VM lean, but a good argument can probably switch me back to Bigger. Because I still think slowcheetah made a very good point about Bigger trying to discuss meta rather than hunting wolves, and I remember that being something zak, commodore & I did in WW12.

So looking beyond day 1, who would lynching us give more information about? I kind of think Bigger would.

My suspicions of Bigger come from him overstating his cases against waterbat and Rowain: Post 151

More than that, though, I just don't think we really have a handle on judging VM. I don't think we know enough about that guy at this point to know if his behavior is really wolfish or just his natural play style, and we always seem to end up lynching the odd ducklings.

@zak- I'm not really open to switching to waterbat. His initial vote was really bad but it doesn't seem like the sort of vote he'd make as a wolf from my experience with him last game.

all done during the last hour.

[Rowain]

In short I'm back to where I started day 3: lynch pindicator and lynch Bigger.

If you must then lynch me tomorrow but for heavens sake lynch those two afterwards.

[pindicator]

Aw, Rowain we gotta work on our trust issues. You r posts were looking good until that lynch pindicator part

Don't tell me you're mad i voted for you yesterday

[Rowain]

I'm sorry after reading your little back and forth with Injera and thinking about all those vote jumping I don't see anybody else wolfy.

In this post you tell Bigger that it isn't that clear cut for you. So help me overcome my trustissues: Whom do you see as wolves? And why?
And why do you contrary to Bigger not see myself and waterbat?

[pindicator]

I'm sorry after reading your little back and forth with Injera and thinking about all those vote jumping I don't see anybody else wolfy.

Neither do i! So if I'm wrong about the next two, you can lynch me Or lynch me and then go after the next two, either way works! Which two is that? Please allow me a little time to build dramatic tension; I'm rather enjoying this as I think village has this one in the bag.

Rowain, I will start working out my thoughts. Maybe Bigger can come through with his evidence that is damning for you in the meantime? I was hoping to see that when i woke up this morning.

[waterbat]

Ch c chi ch chick chic chi chickenchic chi chickenc chi chi chi, chicken?

!=*chicken

Code:

* * Chicken
* * * *Chicken
* * * * * Chicken
* * *Chicken
Chicken*

Ch chi chic ch chi chic ch chic chi? *

chi:

Code:

* * * * * * * * * * * * *| * *
* * * * * * * * * * *\ * * * / * * * * * *_\/_
* * * * * * * * * * * *.-'-. * * * * * * *//o\ *_\/_
* * * * * * * * * -- */ * * \ *-- * * * * * | * /o\\
* * ^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^~^-=======-~^~^~^~~^~^~^~|~~^~^|^~`*
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * |

Ch chi chic ch chic chickenc chickenchic chic chic chickenc ch chick chi ch chic chic chi chickenchick?

Ch*chic chic chickenc

Pindicator*&& -> Bigger

Pindicator

[pindicator]

waterbat, i hope this chicken thing wears off when day 4 starts so you can translate these posts for us

[novice]

waterbat, i hope this chicken thing wears off when day 4 starts so you can translate these posts for us

The picture is a sunset or sunrise. I would assume the chicken fragments correspond to words in the quoted posts.

[novice]

If I see it right your new restriction has replaced you old one, correct?

Chicken answer: not correct.

Do you know if and when it will end?

Chicken answer: Picture of sunset or sunrise.

Do you know if your starting restriction will then reappear or would you be free from any restrictions?

Chicken answer: ch* will then reappear

[pindicator]

Short version: Bigger for tomorrow. Maybe I shouldn't jinx it, but let's lay out the Bigger case:


Thank god for lewwyn. I had no tell at all on Bigger in day 2 and was even believing his role claim. But then lewwyn had to go and make that wonderful attack against me, and then Bigger started to ping wolf badly:

nice.

well you've convinced me that its very unlikely waterbat and pin are both wolves. I think we lynch one or the other for information. slowcheetah lynch atm gives us less information.

also, with with an 8 to 4 final vote, if there are even 2 wolves on injera they could have at least engineered a tie. maybe even a switch to TT - matt (if he is a villager) might have switched - I suspect his Injera vote was more to look village than actual suspicion. so I think there is a good chance there is no more than 1 wolf on Injera. That means if Pin is guilty, it clears waterbat, and slowcheetah and jkaen (or possibly slowcheetah and Rowain) are the last 2 wolves. if Pin is innocent and waterbat is guilty, that makes Matt a possibility for the 4th wolf.

Bigger is getting too eager to set up mislynches. Notice who he says is guilty but we shouldn't lynch, btw

That gave me a theory of Bigger + SC are wolves early day 3. But I wanted to see them react if the other one was on the block first. That's why I shuffled my vote between SC to Bigger and back to SC, btw - I really wanted to see what would happen if Bigger was tied in the lead, but I also wanted to keep pressure on SC. I decided it was better to keep pressure on SC than tie Bigger since there was still over a day to go at that point.

Rowain, you touched on one of the biggest tells that I saw as to why Bigger + SC are wolves. Here's the post

The problem is after the Bigger + SC connection was made in thread the wolves started distancing themselves. Odds were good one of them (either bigger or SC) were going to hang and they needed to tunnel. And I began to have doubts about Bigger. He was defending well on his accusations even if he was giving off some slick scum vibes. Slowcheetah, OTOH, offered no real explanation of his thoughts as to his conversation with TT in day 2. (I thought then and now it is pretty obvious now that he was hoping TT would share some evidence to help save Injera. Or not save Injera and then they could mislynch TT.)

We were getting to the end of the day, SC & Bigger were both solidly in the lead for votes, and I decided to do my experiment. I voted for Rowain, wondering if Bigger would hold true to his Pindicator > Slowcheetah > Rowain scum list, or if he would leap towards a life raft being tossed to a slowcheetah + bigger wolf pack in the form of a rowain railroad. Zak thankfully went along, and then Bigger and Sareln. Bigger, instead of voting for slowcheetah who he had said multiple times was scum (but always had an excuse of why we shouldn't vote for him yet), decided to vote for Rowain instead. Even though this put him in the lead.

I think it's good odds Sareln is the last wolf too, both for jumping onto the Rowain life raft, and then also for the exchange with slowcheetah that you noted. (Also note how many times Bigger dismisses that we should look into Sareln - "that's just Sareln" and "he was lurking and a villager last game" -- not exact quotes but I can find them. If Bigger does indeed flip wolf on day 4 then Sareln is a good spot to look for day 5) But Bigger is the better case.

I'll go find all the times bigger said he suspected slowcheetah but had a reason not to vote for him "quite yet" -- which was exactly what he did when he had zak on the block in the last ww game. There are a couple times slowcheetah does the same. May not get them posted until the day starts, though, because I need to go to a potluck soon.