[SPOILERS] PBEM38 Lurker's lounge

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

What do you think of Crazy Ivan, strategy-wise? I love the name.

[Mardoc]

What do you think of Crazy Ivan, strategy-wise? I love the name.

My gut says Mistabod are in a no-win situation, because Davy was good enough at defense and Commodore decided to intervene. They're going to end up in a 3v1 Real Soon Now. I suppose since that's inevitable, they should kick it off while Cataphracts still rule the roost, so in that sense it's a good more. Better to make Commodore spend his population on Landsknechts than let him spend it on Rifles. But I don't see this ending well for them.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

Agreed. I think China comes out of this smelling like roses. to the eternal pessimists!

[Catwalk]

Think Mistabod would have stood a better chance with a limited land grabbing campaign against Yuri?

[Nicolae Carpathia]

A chat with Dave:

1:20 PM me: so what do you make of 38?
1:23 PM davidharris93: Oye.....
where to even begin
what do you mean exactly?
1:24 PM me: what you think of the geopolitics, and the plans going forward
1:26 PM davidharris93: Hmmm, you're going to get a bit of thinking aloud rambling here
me: go for it!
davidharris93: Mistabod have thrown in and attacked Commodore - with a grand total of 16 Phracts and 4 HAs
1:27 PM Commodore is knee deep in horse shit without a shovel - the Byzantines have him by the balls
The primary stack is forking both Zoe and Sam, which I expect will both be gone next turn
1:28 PM They devoted another couple Phracts to take out Commodore's other source of iron
So, no LS
Commodore is going to lose Zoe, Sam, and probably his new capital of Riffington, unless he has a lot more soldiers than I think he does
Nothing other than Pikes has a prayer against Phracts*
1:29 PM *Except LBs in a city on a hill/with castle
Anyway, wise move by Mistabod, attacking when they're opponent is weak
1:30 PM But I can't help but that attacking me and being forced into war with Commodore was a really bad idea
Why attack me when you're just going to have to make a more powerful enemy to hold on to your marginal gains and leave my empire largely intact
1:31 PM They would have been better served going after Yuri, who, I say with no malice, is a less competent general than I, and has nothing that can fight of Phracts
it would have been a cakewalk for them, Phracts vs. spears and cats, lol
still there, or is that enough spew for one sitting?
1:32 PM me: ive read it all!
davidharris93: So, Mistabod have sent a despoiling strike against Commodore, that will put him behind but not cripple him
1:33 PM they've made a game-long enemy, who is going to bevery powerful in a short period of time, I expect we're going to see a lot of blood-letting as the HRE war machine gets up and running
I'm being very careful to leave them a front where they're contigent, and thus, while I've recaptured Tuchanka, will not be attempting to attack Palaven
1:34 PM I don't want Commodore to feel like he needs to blow me out of the way to get at the Byzantines
I suspect if they had not declared on him, he may have joined in on their side to pick up some spoils off my husk before going against Byzantium
the real losers here are Mistabod
1:35 PM they have 2 (possibly three) people that want them dead more than anything else in the world
and their economy is lagging - which they know
I got Investigate city on almost everything in their empir this turn, they're churning out a round of CHs and Grocers
1:36 PM Not investing in military right now, when it's pretty crucial, may come back to bite them in a dozen turns when Comm has Rifles and I have more military at my disposal
The real winners of course, from all this, are NoGas
their chief rifle [Ed: Freudian slip] is being cut down a peg, and the rest of the world is collapsing into war - and they face perhaps the most tantalizing choice of all the parties
1:37 PM Do they:
A. Invade and absorb Yuri
B. 2v1 Commodore
C. Sit back and tech
I honestly don't know which one is the best, but whatever they do will have a massive effect on the rest of the game
1:38 PM They're sitting very pretty right now
YUri and I, are in similar boats
although mine is significantly better because I have a lot more tech and state-of-the-art units
1:39 PM I'm honestly shocked that he has not recovered from that early setback, he lost his capital, I know, but he's FIN and has a lot of grassland, he should be in better shape by now
and I still have no fucking clue how he lost his capital to a HA rush, what did he have guarding it, warriors?

(Some stuff on BTS35, redacted for spoilers)

davidharris93: there was recently the beginning of a discussion in Mack's PBEM41 thread on the value of ORacle -> MC
1:47 PM consensus seems to be it rarely works out very well
because the result is the player feels obligated to build Forges earlier than they're really useful and loses out on expansion/military
me: yep, the root of the discussion started out in 35 and 38
forges pay off, but workers/settlers pay off quicker
davidharris93: ah, a bit behind on the times
1:48 PM Anyway, PBEM38, in summary
absolutely crazy
1:49 PM right now, I'm trying to decide whether my interests are best served by doing everything possible to kill Mistabod
me: plus i noticed this effect back in 21 and 23, which i ded-lurked
davidharris93: 23 I'm not so sure
1:50 PM You and Yuri we're in bad shape towards the end
*weren't
I feel like I should rag him for that mobilization though :P
me: we had a safe front, but we still got pink dotted
1:51 PM if NS7 wanted to punish us, they could, but they had mackoti to worry about
davidharris93: I will say one thing for Mistabod, they mobilized once they had guilds correctly - whip out a ton of Phracts in a very short time and use them quickly
me: yep
davidharris93: Still wish that game had finished, it was absolutely fascinating
1:52 PM me: timing out whips for a timing attack is a nice skill
maybe i could have contributed better to 23, i did do a similar thing in 18 with curaissers
1:53 PM davidharris93: necessary to really capitalize on a UU or tech beeline
me: yeah, you cant just slow build them out
davidharris93: eh, it's hard when you're only a partial teamate to exert much control, so I wouldn't blame yourself there
me: and upgrades are also useful to get your bolus all out at the same time
1:54 PM davidharris93: Just messaged Commodore to prep him for receiving the next save
He says "Nicely timed, two turns before rifle drafting, GG Gaspar"
ironic because I expect Gaspar has been his usual bubbly self of late
1:55 PM (which I know you can't confirm or deny)
I think I'm probably going to run a full-blow EE
try to steal the techs I need off of Mistabod
1:56 PM and pick up some of their western cities once I have enough forces on the field
me: i think EP costs are discounted by culture
davidharris93: Hopefully Commodore doesn't decide he needs Thessia/Tuchanka/The Citadel from me, because I can not hold off rifles
me: how nice that you have alot of loyal citadel citizens still huddling in the cities captured by the reapers
1:57 PM davidharris93: lol, same thought crossed my mind when playing the save :D
apt
Btw, is this chat going in the PBEM38 lurker thread?
1:58 PM me: yep, ill cut out some of the 35 bits
1:59 PM saves you duplicating the update, but you may still want to make it easier to refer to
davidharris93: I will, I have some screens and a few other things to go into, that's just everything I have to say about the current metagame
2:00 PM well, one other thing
not sure if anyone has commented on it yet
but Mistabod's tile improvements....
They should be cottaging every eligible tile for Financial Bonus, especially with their weak GNP
2:01 PM I mean, I made the mistake in PBEM17, and legitimately, I hate to see deserts of cottages
but it would definitely be the best course of action for them here, and instead they have lots of farm and workshops
me: i think it still comes down to city specialisation, some cities just dont suit cottages
2:02 PM plus, cottages dont help with the whip
2:03 PM davidharris93: I grant you, and in fairness, I haven't looked very closely at things
me: FIN just makes cottages faster to pay off, and shifts the decision tree towards more cottages
davidharris93: just something that sturck me in passing
2:04 PM Just sent you relevant SS, most notable area to me is that farmed expanse of grassland west of the capital
me: what food resources are there?
2:06 PM davidharris93: In the surrounding area there are 3 seafood, wet corn, lighthouse lake, and 2 plains cattle
2:07 PM me: ah, hence plenty of food
2:09 PM davidharris93: decent amount, a couple of grassland farms may still be in order to get up to +6 anywhere, and they are in the process of making Pace their globe drafting camp
still, can't help but wonder, I suppose time will tell soon enough though
2:10 PM If someone ever razes their FP city of Bravery though, they're going to be in a lot of trouble, there is a lot of Commerce coming from that city, backed by an Academy, and it borders the HRE city of Kusari
2:13 PM me: everyone loves floodplains
2:14 PM davidharris93: here here
suspect that's going to be the major battleground of the upcoming turns, once Commodore turns back the Byzantine offensive, the front will shift over to Sasha/Strength and Kusari/Bravery
2:15 PM me: whats your tech rate?
2:18 PM davidharris93: pretty awful
My breakeven is ~55 bpt at this point
2:19 PM Though, in fairness, this is without Representation in PS and with almost all of my Specialists whipped away
I also had my best commerce city back then
prior to the invasion, I was making around ~200 bpt breakever
*breakeven
2:20 PM me: specialist economies are pretty all or nothing
2:21 PM im never sure if i should cap out and go max scientists or get more food to whip
but at least it does let you instantly flick from growth to tech
2:22 PM unlike cottages, which dont even pay off until 6 turns, when you could work specialists for an instant payoff instead
2:23 PM davidharris93: I usually err on the side of getting more food and production going sooner, get up to a really sexy food bonus then start running specialists around size 7/8 - throw up a library and run two scientists from then on out
keep whipping to a minimun, increase the happy cap and continue adding improved tiles to each city
2:24 PM me: well, without caste, no point having a size 7 city working 5 farms and 2 scientists
id rather get the beakers out asap
unless you're planning on using those farms to whip out more settlers (which im planning on doing, now that currency's in)
2:25 PM davidharris93: Depends on what techs you have coming up
me: yep, get a crucial tech in, then kill your scientists to get your objective completed
davidharris93: This game, I departed from that and began running a lot of scientists right off the bat to get me through the crucial economic techs since my research was lagging behind
2:26 PM me: yeah, especially with hardly any cottages post 'mids
2:27 PM davidharris93: Yeahm I really should have built some cottages earlier in this game
/founded Irune or Tuchanka sooner
botched my expansion pretty well
me: yeah, thessia isnt a great worker pump
2:28 PM davidharris93: lol, I outthought myself there
OOOOH, I CAN GET A 3 FOOD CITY CENTER!
me: no better than a plains hill centre
davidharris93: Irune would have been much better to that end
2:29 PM me: hey, at least your map has more than a handful off 5-food tiles!
davidharris93: True that
my land is pretty sexy compared to a lot of the land on this map
when the post-mortem for this game goes up, going to attribute my defeat to three things
1. Playing as Gandhi of France in a game with 3 Financial Civs
2:30 PM 2. Botching second city placement
3. Starting next to Phracts
2:35 PM me: yeah, gandhi of france was kinda cherry tapping yourself, it was originally designed to fit into a team game, and now you were alone with no early game traits
besides ag/wheel
davidharris93: Eh, knew it, said so in first post, couldn't resist playing against this crowd
2:36 PM plus, I knew it would give me a convenient excuse when and if things went south
me: i think i would have fitted into this game as well, but i found the thread too late
plus the turnpace would be slower because i live on the other side of the planet
2:37 PM davidharris93: Austrailia, right?
Which leader would you have taken?
me: funny how i pretend to be romanian, but there are actual romanian dudes on RB
hannibal of greece, or louis of byzantium
2:38 PM davidharris93: Louis would have been interesting
2:39 PM doesn't get played a lot, and rather underrated I thin
*think
me: the original plan in 23 was to do oracle-colossus and use it to tech towards guilds
davidharris93: still, not as good as FIN though
2:40 PM me: considering its drawbacks, im glad i wont need to do that again
i think ive mentioned it before, the 'mids timing lets you get more cities up and running before you start really pushing it, unlike oracle where it interferes with your growth curve
2:41 PM like, you usually push for mids just as your initial wave of expansion is slowing down and you want to get a little vertical growth and infrastructure in, and oracle occurs in the middle of your expansion
2:42 PM davidharris93: Yeah, those ~10 turns make a pretty big difference
Feel like RB should come to a collective agreement
2:43 PM "Nobody build the Oracle before t50"
me: why should we? if someone wants to wager enough of their industrial output on that, let them
2:44 PM davidharris93: Eh true, and it's not like it's never worked out
2:45 PM me: seven got it to work in 29, but that was with yet another well played farmer's gambit
and no psycho xenu/commodore
2:47 PM davidharris93: lol
May we never ever see that pairing in a game again
2:48 PM me: alternatively, if we do, please let them start on the opposite side of the planet
davidharris93: amen to that
2:52 PM me: its weird that ive never played mass effect but its impact on internet culture has made me know pretty much everything about it
2:55 PM davidharris93: Would say you're probably missing out then
2:56 PM Ah well
good series if you ever have the time and money to burn
2:57 PM Anyway, it's getting late over here, I'm headed off to bed
good speaking to you again Nic :D
me: cya dude, sweet dreams about dead horses
2:58 PM davidharris93: hope this will give the lurkers something to talk about
lol, would be welcome

[scooter]

Why didn't Mist just walk up to Dave's borders with all their units, declare, demand Dave's stone city for peace. Dave probably accepts when he sees how many units they have. Then immediately rush at Commodore, burn a city or two. Then go back and finish Dave. Or for that matter, get peace with Commodore and then pull the same extortion scheme on Gaspar.

It just seems they've accomplished nothing except taking themselves out of the running. They went into the Dave invasion like going full-bore was the plan. Then they changed their minds and allowed Dave to re-take his cities (getting culture borders back and all that) and then went and got their army suicided against Commodore for the cost of burning Commodore's least useful city. Such a weird sequence of events. They got an obscene number of Cataphracts and it feels like they got no value out of them.

[thestick]

Maybe it's that they were expecting they'd win against Dave?

I'd honestly expected more out of the Cataphract swarm.

[Mardoc]

Honestly, I think that's FFH instincts. You get a lead in FFH that big, you're going to take half of someone's empire - but that's because the units are faster and the rushing options are worse.

[scooter]

Maybe it's that they were expecting they'd win against Dave?

Well they were winning, but Mist smartly pointed out that even after they won they couldn't hold the land against Commodore. I just wonder if they couldn't have made a serious power play if they had come to that conclusion about 4T quicker.

[Sullla]

Let me try to put this diplomatically... There's a reason why this game is called Second Chance Saloon. Everyone here is a pretty good player, but is lacking in some area of their overall gameplay. From the threads that I've read so far, I see some major errors from all five teams.

* Yuris botched the opening. I have no idea how, because there is so little detail in that thread, but something went badly wrong. Then he lost his capital and became a total non-factor. He has no chance of winning and is trying for survival.

* Dave outlined his opening in great detail, and made a series of terrible decisions. His second city was in an awful position. He built no cottages at all in the early game, which is why his economy became atrocious 100 turns later. His stone plant / Pyramids gambit was some of the nuttiest gameplay I've ever seen, essentially throwing away any possible chance to win in order to build a single wonder. Insanity. I love the writing and reporting, but this was not a well played game at all. Survival is again the best outcome to hope for.

Now as for the three teams who have a chance to win:

* Byzantium put themselves in a great position to win. They were leading in score, had the most fertile land, and two extremely weak neighbors to devour later on. Instead of continue to develop and tech, however, they went on this crazy attacking spree with cataphracts. Attacking Dave made some sense, although attacking the much weaker Yuris would have been more logical. A limited war against Dave could have put them into the driver's seat. Instead, the Byzantine players initiated a completely insane second war against Commodore, which was VERY OBVIOUSLY not going to succeed, and now have lost all wartime gains with nothing to show for it. Just terrible play there. Since Byzantium had a very legit shot to win the game, this amounted to committing suicide for no reason at all.

* Commodore pulled off some very aggressive settling in the early game to great success, with the tradeoff of creating an apparent gamelong enemy in the form of China. I still think Commodore played the best game of anyone (even with the "easy mode" leader/civ combo of Darius/HRE). However, he had to deal with the nutty Byzantine attack and whip a bunch of population. Still gets my vote for best play thus far, even if current position is only second best.

* China is in the best position to win, but can't seem to look past their ridiculous feud with Commodore. This makes little sense and is bordering on the obsessive at this point. Attacking Commodore right now would be one of the most foolish things possible, but there is a very real chance they will do it because of this vendetta that they feel. You need to have a clearer head to win these games - even in Pitboss #2, our team made a number of deals with teams we hated, to further our chances of winning. You can always pay back your enemies later. Being antagonistic 100% of the time is foolish.

Most of these teams have picked a terrible time for offensive warfare, the late medieval era. It's easy to whip walls/castles and stall out enemy armies in this period. In a No Tech Trading game like this, the superior play would have been to keep teching to better units (keeping in mind that backwards Yuris and Dave will be left behind) and then attack the backwards civs with drafted muskets/rifles. This is what I would do if I were playing as China right now; stay out of war, tech to Rifling, and then hit Yuris. Let everyone else gas themselves and then take the easy spoils. I have been completely baffled by the terrible war decisions made in this game, especially by the Byzantine team. They might as well have put a loaded shotgun in their mouth and pulled the trigger.

It's interesting all right, just so many silly mistakes by a lot of these teams...