WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[Bobchillingworth]

Okay, did a quick skim through the thread and I believe this is the most recent vote count:



Lewwyn: Jkaen, Maniac, Selrahc (3)

Maniac: Zakalwe, Serdoa (2)

Sareln: Molach, BrickAstley (2)

Selrahc: Lewwyn, Meiz (2)

Jkaen: Bobchillingworth (1)

Zakalwe: Waterbat (1)

Molach: Sareln (1)



Not yet voting: thestick, Injera.


I didn't bother to do a vote count for Mayor- Serdoa is winning handily. I think everyone is voting for him except Lewwyn, myself & waterbat.



Thoughts on the voting- lots of subplots means lots of suspects, not surprising. Personally, I really don't find Lewwyn more suspicious than, say, any one of the drone saga participants. With votes so dispersed, looking at who jumps to whom in the final day should be revealing, assuming we end up with the traditional vote coalescence during the last few hours.



Btw, Bigger if you read this, the player list on the first page needs to be updated. It would be nice if you also included death-revealed roles next to names, as previous games did.

[thestick]

...is anyone else finding it suspicious that Lewwyn got a safe claim?

At this point there are only three people Marr could be. Selrahc, Zakalwe and you Jkaen.

Why?

If h'minee is Marr and this whole hunt for marr thing is a fiasco? ?? If so we lynch bigger. That's just too devious. This would mean that the name-seer needs to scan H'minee/Marr in order to discredit him. I guess Serdoa could also reveal him. But if a NAP, he'd been nearly immune to lynching. Seems way too overpowered, right?

I suspect the wolves were drawing out nameclaims to draw out people who had powers.

Maniac looks weird on first glance, also Sareln for not mentioning anything other than the Drones in his daily post.

Um, I think lack of sleep is preventing me from thinking clearly. I can't follow any of the arguments right now. Give me the night... I'll get to it tomorrow.

[Molach]

Okay, did a quick skim through the thread and I believe this is the most recent vote count:


Lewwyn: Jkaen, Maniac, Selrahc (3)

Maniac: Zakalwe, Serdoa (2)

Sareln: Molach, BrickAstley (2)

Selrahc: Lewwyn, Meiz (2)

Jkaen: Bobchillingworth (1)

Zakalwe: Waterbat (1)

Molach: Sareln (1)


Thoughts on the voting- lots of subplots means lots of suspects, not surprising. Personally, I really don't find Lewwyn more suspicious than, say, any one of the drone saga participants. With votes so dispersed, looking at who jumps to whom in the final day should be revealing, assuming we end up with the traditional vote coalescence during the last few hours.

Agree with this, spread out voting and nothing standing out. Does not mean many of the sub-plots won't end up with an evil NAP either. Drone-league probably has a NAP, there is an alien NAP along with 2 as of yet hidden ones.

Just occured to me that the wolf population is getting high now. When I remove myself and a couple I personally am very sure are villager the rest have a baseline 40 % scum-chance.

Sareln is a NAP unless the game was setup with 3 village commuters. If it comes to a showdown with sareln & me I'll post additional info about my resoning leading up to mattimeo's lynch that may or may not be enlightning.

(Sareln)I'm really not happy with Molach hiding his drone status while Mattimeo and I went to the mat last day cycle.

Well suppose you were village drone. You see two other identical drones have at it, so you assume one of them is NAP. They end up on the block. Now, what will revealing that you are a drone do? Probably you will be seen as innocent, freely claiming, but the price is revealing your power to NAP. So I wait, and was gonna claim first thing next day if a village drone got killed, so I could get the other lynched.
Waterbat just beat me to it.

I am also suspicious of maniac, by the way, starting to feel scummy. Also voting day 1 I think NAP would spread out a bit more. 2 on thestick, 2-3 on tasunke. Doesn't really make a difference if thestick is guilty or not, votes spread out has been seen as a good thing for most wolfpacks I've been in. So if focus goes away from the drones that is where I want to vote next.

[Jkaen]

Jkaen, I can follow most of your logic though I don't agree with it. But the part above which I quoted I really can't understand what you mean. If they are both NAP, why is Lewwyn telling us that Marr is NAP? That does not make sense in the slighest at all. I can believe that they are both not villagers, I can believe that they are each their own faction. But I really, really doubt that there is any explanation how they both could be NAP with how Lewwyn played.

As for Maniac... well, when I read his last posts I just want to

Maniac

I'll get back to that after I had dinner.

If you believe there is no name seer, then giving us Marr as a NAP has no risk for them, and it doesnt point to what player has Marr. It also allows Lewwyn to be right when Marr turns NAP should we lynch him, hence gain strong village cover

[Sareln]

This is overwhelming. Will try to tease some sense out of it.

First things first though, Serdoa for Mayor/Planetary Governor.

----

I'm inclined to believe that Lewwyn is not NAP. If he was, I imagine one or several of his teammates would have brought up the "Are you sure you don't have a human name to claim?" in the pre-game phase or in the 72 hours encompassed by the first day and most of the first night.

----

I'm really not happy with Molach hiding his drone status while Mattimeo and I went to the mat last day cycle. If he hadn't been called out by Waterbat (channeling a connection w/ a name seer) and the alien thing hadn't taken forefront, we'd probably be looking at a day with me v. BRickAstley. That would be 3 mislynches (Mattimeo, Me, BRickAstley) for the price of one NAP Molach over the course of 4 days, which sounds like rock solid wolf play.

There's an alternate scenario to the drone saga where BRickAstley is the NAPper, but I find the NAP Molach situation significantly more likely due the timing and nature of the role claims.

I need to think more about whether or not we can tease out Waterbat's alignment from what's already gone down.

Molach

Maniac looks weird on first glance, also Sareln for not mentioning anything other than the Drones in his daily post.

Um, I think lack of sleep is preventing me from thinking clearly. I can't follow any of the arguments right now. Give me the night... I'll get to it tomorrow.

Bolds and Underline are mine.

Thanks Bob for collecting the current counts.

I disagree with Selrahc on the urgency of resolving the alien issue.

Consider the following.

(Assumption) Discard the possibility of 3rd groups for a moment.
(Assumption) Maar is in the game and Lewwyn is H'minee.
(Assumption) H'minee/Maar do not have their own victory condition.

4 possibilities then. Lewwyn/Maar -> Village/Village, Village/NAP, NAP/Village, NAP/NAP, case 1,2,3,4 respectively. We also know that Lewwyn has made an uncontested claim on end of Night 1.

1. Village Lewwyn accuses Village Maar of being NAP, Village Maar knowing that he's innocent does not counter-claim Lewwyn. Why not? As far as Maar knows, he's innocent and Lewwyn is lying, so he can trade 1:1 w/ (assumed) NAP on day 2.
   
2. Village Lewwyn accuses NAP Maar of being NAP. NAP Maar knows he's guilty, so he's safe as long as he doesn't claim. Counter-claiming Lewwyn is bad for him, since at best he trades 1:1 with Lewwyn.
   
3. NAP Lewwyn accuses Village Maar of being NAP, Village Maar knowing that he's innocent does not counter-claim Lewwyn. Why not? Same reasoning behind case 1.
   
4. NAP Lewwyn accuses NAP Maar of being NAP. NAP Maar knows he's guilty so he doesn't claim. Later on in the game if the Village lynches Maar, Lewwyn gains credit.
   

So under the 3 (big) assumptions at the top, given that Lewwyn's claim went without response from Maar, I believe that Maar is NAP and Lewwyn's ID is uncertain.

Let's now consider the situation where the aliens have their own win condition. We have to add another assumption:

(Assumption) The Aliens cannot win together.

Which brings our set of assumptions to:

(Assumption) Maar is in the game and Lewwyn is H'minee.
(Assumption) The Aliens cannot win together.
(Assumption) The Aliens have their own individual victory conditions.
(Assumption) There are only Aliens, NAP, and Village factions.

With an individual Alien win condition (assumption: you win if at the end of the game you are alive and your counterpart is dead), I sincerely doubt that either is associated directly with the NAP. This is because it would mean that a perfectly played game from a 4-person NAP (out of 21, win at 7 or 8, w/ 1 kill and 1 lynch each cycle so 4 remaining villagers) has a 4/17's chance of resulting in an alien NAPper winning alone. Seems like a huge weakness in the game setup to me.

So I don't think there can be an individual alien win condition and Maar be a member of the NAP. So if we find and lynch Maar and he turns up un-aligned his role reveal will dictate whether or not to lynch Lewwyn.

If the win condition for the Aliens is purely individual, then Maar not revealing makes sense in that even if he won the coin toss against Lewwyn in the head to head to follow, Lewwyn's death and role reveal would doom Maar, so even though Lewwyn has tagged him as NAP, that could just be a convenient lie. Though it doesn't make sense then for Lewwyn to claim since then if we ever catch Maar and he's not NAP, it's Lewwyn's head.

----

So where does that leave us?

If Lewwyn is telling the truth, obviously we should find and lynch Maar.

If Lewwyn & Maar have an individual victory condition, we should find and lynch Maar, and that will inform what we do with Lewwyn.

If Lewwyn & Maar are both NAP, well, we should find and lynch Maar and Lewwyn order invariant.

Since I can't distinguish between the three possibilities right now, I think that we should give the name-seer time to do the job he was apparently designed for (finding aliens).

I do think a name seer exists, that'll get it's own post, this one is long enough as is.

[Jkaen]

I agree that it is very likely Maar in NAP. I am not sold on the name seer, but will see your detailed argument for that

[Injera]

I can't believe you actually typed that all out Sareln.

Here's what's sticking in my brain:

Earlier I had posted that I was still waiting for zakalwe to start his hunting. I'm still waiting. I expected more from you given the recent revelations.
Im aware of the time zone issue - but when you get up, I would like to know your thoughts on the double kill, whether you doubt my claim now that it is out there. Also - i automatically doubt anyone who goes to bed a few minutes before deadline... I mean, its called "DEADline" for a reason - this is virtual life or death here.

I have small kids, and usually I'm awake at several points during the night. So I often check the night results from my phone, then. I still reserve the right to "hit the sack", in the sense of going 9-10 hours without posting. I am devoting as much time and attention to this game as I can spare. If that's not enough for you, you can either keep "waiting", or sack up and present a real argument for why I'm scummy.

Here's the thing, I think Zakalwe's being completely honest here. But, it's an emotional appeal, he's apologizing. He's asking for sympathy when he doesn't need it.

[Sareln]

I think there's a name-seer in the game.

Why?

Waterbat's slip on Moloch. Waterbat clearly knew hidden information (as confirmed by Moloch) that Moloch has drone as his name. He's explained this by revealing his communication ability (a lot of communication in this game), which Lewwyn has confirmed (and Waterbat has posted his communications with Slowcheetah, which look pretty legit though I suppose they could be forged given the amount of time that passed between claim and posting).

So Waterbat's claimed night actions are:

Night 1 - Slowcheetah
Night 2 - Name Seer
Night 3 - Lewwyn

For now, let's assume that Waterbat has the ability he claims, since otherwise it implies both Lewwyn and Waterbat are anti-village roles. It's a gambit that doesn't give much of a gain and huge possibility of loss (though Waterbat may have felt exposed enough to just go balls out).

With that assumption in place, how does Waterbat come by the information?

(Scenario) Molach is an NAP drone

1. Waterbat spoke with a name seer on night 2, who had scanned Moloch.
   
2. Waterbat spoke with a NAPper on night 2, who decided to claim role seer by fingering Moloch.
   
3. Waterbat is NAP and knows Molach's role, but claims he got it from a name seer.
   

(Scenario) Molach is a village Drone

1. Waterbat spoke with a name seer on night 2, who had scanned Moloch
   
2. Waterbat spoke with a NAPper on night 2, who decided to claim role seer using information gained either through novice or some unknown avenue.
   
3. Waterbat is NAP and knows Molach's role via a NAP ability scan (Novice) or name scan (Unknown), but has decided to claim he got it from a name seer.
   

----

In both scenarios, in case 2 the NAPper is doing a self-dangerous thing claiming name seer unless the Lewwyn/Maar thing is a farce (Lewwyn is NAP). Additionally, the gain is not very large, since it runs the risk of a nameseer turning up and Waterbat being able to finger the false claim.

In both scenarios, in case 3 Waterbat is exposing himself enormously by giving the person he spoke with an ability that person doesn't have. So that person can just call bullshit and get Waterbat lynched.

----

So, if Lewwyn is village then Waterbat has his ability and spoke with the name seer. If Lewwyn is NAP, then Waterbat knows the ID of at least one other NAPper (the claimed name seer) or Waterbat is also NAP and he's thrown away uses of his ability or formed useless tunnels to other NAPpers as faking the ability for long term would require all of his partners to either be NAP or develop a very bad case of the dead.

Finally, if you were ever in communication with Waterbat and you are not a name-seer or named Lewwyn or Slowcheetah, you should reveal and we will lynch Waterbat for lying.

----

However, let's consider another thing. Last night the NAP did not kill a name-seer. So either they don't know who the name-seer is or there is no Maar and therefore no name seer. If they didn't know who the name-seer is, that clears Waterbat fairly convincingly IMO. If there is no Maar, then both Lewwyn and Waterbat are NAP. But Lewwyn and Waterbat are tied together by choice, and I don't think it would've been worth the risk. So I'm inclined towards the first possibility: an innocent waterbat and a name seer exists.

[zakalwe]

Here's the thing, I think Zakalwe's being completely honest here. But, it's an emotional appeal, he's apologizing. He's asking for sympathy when he doesn't need it.

An honest scum? Nice rhetorical twist. I certainly didn't mean to ask for sympathy. I don't think I was I being apologetic, either.

The main thing going through my head when I wrote that was "I really should just tell him to f*** off but that's probably unwise".

[zakalwe]

However, let's consider another thing. Last night the NAP did not kill a name-seer. So either they don't know who the name-seer is or there is no Maar and therefore no name seer. If they didn't know who the name-seer is, that clears Waterbat fairly convincingly IMO. If there is no Maar, then both Lewwyn and Waterbat are NAP. But Lewwyn and Waterbat are tied together by choice, and I don't think it would've been worth the risk. So I'm inclined towards the first possibility: an innocent waterbat and a name seer exists.

This is a pretty solid argument, IMO. Although I would be a little careful to postulate that Maar's existence must imply a name seer and vice versa. Keep in mind that Uberfish's last game featured a miller but no seer, purely for anti-meta purposes.

In general, those logical breakdowns from Sareln are very Sarelnesque. I still favor a Maniac lynch over pursuing any of the other subplots.