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WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

Well see, here's the deal with the manifesto. I was going to begin writing it right before I made that post, and even though I kinda thought it was hopeless for me at that point I went ahead and started writing it up. As I went through your posts though, it was tough to see anything that was really jumping out at me as being wolfish. Sure there were a few things that didn't sit necessarially right to me, like a vote on thestick for not voting in a large amount of posts when you've done similar before, but I've gotten maybe halfway through without anything else additional huge of note that I can find on you.

That said, my main arguments, until I finish reviewing your posts at least, are some of the same as before; it is suspicious that you did not reveal your role as a commuter until you were accidentally forced out by waterbat. If you are village, then it would seem to make more sense to me for you to have claimed as well when the whole sage was being brought to light. Staying in the shadows while another innocent villager who was purported to be the same as you in power seems odd. That as well as the fact that you have such a valuable village showing and have not been killed for it.

Side note: regarding the Molach Files, from now on I'm disregarding them. While they have worked to ensure your innocence, I think that they could be written up by anybody on any side of the matter, and are completely unverifiable, both in that you actually wrote those notes just like that, as well as the timestamps. I'm not saying that you're a liar, I just think that they should not play into any additional consideration. Let's stick with the current data that we have on people in this thread, which cannot be disputed.

Now, I agree both that we've gotten kinda heated in the last few posts, when it is better to try and think things through logically. And that I've been stupid in my dogmatic devotion to attack due to the meta of what the drone sage *should* be. My recent attack on you I think was fueled by outrage after Sareln turned up innocent, because I had been so sure of his villany that I was shocked.

Quote:And do you seriously not see difference between "Wolves will probably not go after Molach as he can protect self, so Selrahc can protect one of A, B or C" and "Selrahc must protect one of A, B, C, Molach"?
And did you not notice that selrahc has gotten blocked recently?
And did you not see that most people had me on innocent list?

I suppose I do. But again, I wasn't thinking along those lines when I decided to go ahead and staple. I was buying into the metagame, and figured that your ability had ot be different than you said it was, some sort of nasty NAP power. Of course, without a role-seer (Unless that's Maniac's secret), there's no way to veriify what your power I killed truly is or not.

Quote:So I'm voting for him because of stupidity, not because one of us has to be NAP. Why must one of us be NAP again? And I guess I'm voting because I'm angry with him for screwing a villager like this.

Neither one of us HAS to be NAP. I just thought that you had to be. So if you really are a villager, I'm sorry for screwing you and the rest of us over. duh I'm saying if here because there are a few beefs I have still. Right now though, I think that you are a villager now that I'm thinking about it with my head on straight again.

And I'm as tired of my own stupidity as you are. THis game saw me start with mis-comments and votes on Sareln and Lewwyn in the first two days, where I made glaring mistakes and kinda reclused out of my embarrassment. And just not I was afraid that with this final mistake of attacking Sareln and stapling you that my game is over. And it probably very well still is. But I want to answer your questions now, and try and offer any commentary that I can on the other people now, so that I don't finish out stupidly and can still be some help to the village even if I am killed.

Quote:IF BRick is a villager, he has now seen two drones lynched with the commuter ability. He looks on his PM again, since IF he is a villager he has not lied about this. And he thinks 'why was I given an atrocity that stops drone riots if all drones are good?' He has saved the power because he thought Sareln was guilty and did not want to mess with my power. Because every thing indicated that I was village, the posting, the diary, the vote on Injera. But a villager power that is not useless, but plain harmful to the village has rarely been seen in these games ('fool' role springs to mind). Bigger would never do that. So contrary to all evidence Molach must be NAP, his riots do something else, and I must stop that.

Yeah, that's roughly my thinking process. I;ll try and type up my own version of the drone sage from my own thoughts.

*Game Start*

"Okay, so I have a power that is able to stable the drones to prevent them from rioting. My role PM does not state at all what drone riots do, so either I'm not supposed to know, or the riots can do different things for different drones. It is also an atrocity, so I can't use it for a while, and it's probably a risky power."

*UN Charter Repeled*

"Well now the atrocities are able to be carried out, but I don't yet know what mine does. It seems powerful, but with a potential to be misused, so I'll tell the village about it and ask for any advice on the matter."

*Matt dies*

"Sareln has been acting very wolfish, and based on what I've read on tells, I think it's very very likely that he's a wolf. I'll keep trying to make him come to light or get him lynched if he doesn't prove himself village.

*Sareln dies*

"Okay now I'm completely confused. Sareln was innocent, even though everything points to him being bad. And now everyone is already getting ready to kill me. My ability has to be useful for something, and even though I haven't gotten an strong wolf tell on Molach, there's no other option. Unless there's a fourth drone out there, but this far into the game that just seems unlikely or impossible due to various names claimed. If I die, then my ability will completely go to waste. I have to use it on Molach, because he's the only one left and I can't let him get away with somehting evil if I do die."

So that's why I did everything that I did. No secrets.

I've gotten so caught up in the drone saga that I've tunnel visioned away from trying to read other possible wolves vry well, which I see now is piss poor. I've had vauge feelings about thestick and Maniac for a long while, and a bit of one on Jkaen since he's gotten in the spotlight recently, but I could not give you an argument about any of them right now. Tonight I'll take a look on them and see if I can dig up any dirt on any of them that looks like it has some wolf tells to it, but idk how much I'll be able to ascertain. So that even when I die later, which I think is all but certain, hopefully I'll be able to still have been some help.
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im so torn here. Molach - I firmly discounted the fact that we'd have all 4 participants in the drone saga be village. You correctly picked up on - I think it might be possible.

Also I agree - why claim freely with NO PRESSURE - i went back to that day and there is nothing. Even if there was pressure - why? Its too bad he didn't blame the worms - I could come up with some half-baked theory on that smile

Here is the bigger part... I haven't done endgame calcs- We are really 2 mislynches from lylo! In that case..... I definitely overcommitted to lynching you if BRick turns up village.

Assuming 2 NAP.
today 7-2
mislynch 6-2
kill 5-2
mislynch 4-2
kill 3-2
mislynch 2-2 lose.

I know this is not going to make any sense but after contemplating your post, I am about 98% sure that there is 0 or 1 NAP in the (Brick-Molach group)

I am 80% sure there are 1 or 2 NAP in the Meiz-Jkaen group

At this point, with the game on the line, which makes the better persuit? My gut tells me go for the bigger risk - try to nab 2 NAP. But again - the game is on the line - the 20% that there are 0 wolves in the second group really concerns me.

It should be easy to whip up a game calculator - we want to take the course with the least chance of ruin (3 mislynches)
--
Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
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back later tonight - no time to read Brick's thing
--
Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
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Bobchillingworth Wrote:I should add that if everyone in the Drone Saga is a villager, then BRick's role is even worse than a Fool. At least the fool doesn't hurt anybody when he uses his power, and any damage comes from the village itself. BRick's power is just pure anti-village, if all the drones are village.



I find it difficult to believe that Bigger would do that to us. I don't want to believe he'd actually set the game up like that.

Well he could have rolled alignment randomly.
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Quote:I know this is not going to make any sense but after contemplating your post, I am about 98% sure that there is 0 or 1 NAP in the (Brick-Molach group)

I am 80% sure there are 1 or 2 NAP in the Meiz-Jkaen group


This sounds about right to me, although I'd substitute Maniac for Meiz in the second group. Reason: we know the NAP have at least one wolf, and one of their members is a roleblocker. Meiz seems less likely to be the roleblocker, not because of that dumb first dream but because has already claimed two powers (one confirmed), and metagame logic leaves Maniac as therefore looking more suspect.


Quote:Well he could have rolled alignment randomly.

Maaaybe. It just doesn't make any sense to do that for some roles though, like vigs. A wolf vig for instance would be even worse for game balance than what Brick ended up with in an all-village drone saga scenario. And I'm sure Serdoa the alignment seer was never going have a chance of being randomly rolled wolf. So, maybe Bigger rolled some roles randomly and not others, but that doesn't sound practical or likely to me.





Reading over Brick's posts, I really am torn. I mean, his actions make him look guilty. His power makes him look really guilty. But he sounds like a villager, and I'm getting that "sinking ship" feeling Selrahc mentioned. I think we should table Brick and make a play for ether Jkaen or Maniac, one of whom I believe must be the roleblocker.
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Meiz Wrote:Day 1:
thestick (6)- Tasunke, novice, Lewwyn, Maniac, catwalk, Molach

Day 3:
thestick(3) - maniac, bobchillingsworth, mattimeo

Day 4:
Lewwyn (2) - jkaen, maniac

Day 5:
BrickAstley - maniac

Not on Injera, and after day 1 has never voted for one of the persons on the line.

Another note, what about the "Sareln-innocent-why-would-NAPmeiz-switch" thing? I can't see a wolf draw attention with a vote switch, sending a villager up for lynch (going from a villager, so we know it wasn't a rescue attempt)

If this is plausible, and If BRick is innocent then it kinda HAS to be maniac and Jkaen, right? Unless one of the cleared are playing us.
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Cleared ones:
Waterbat - Zakalwe kill
thestick - neighbour with NAP
Selrahc - doctor claim sent Injera to gallows.
Bob - vote
Molach - vote.

So:
BRick - ?
Meiz - ?

Maniac - ???
Jkaen - ???

Even if BRick has put on a great performance here and is really NAP, there is the question of who to kill next. But I think Maniac/Jkaen make better lynches today.
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I'm in China now, but I guess I'm dead. Guess reverse psychology doesn't work. rolleye Go get 'em village. Hang 'em High.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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I hate this computer. This is the 4th time I've tried this writeup since it keeps getting eaten, and I'm pissed. Here's the skinny: look at who's voted where. Tomorrow when I have more time I'll try to re-do my analysis, but look at what people have voted where at the end of each day. Two key points: Maniac has never voted for someone that hung that day bar novice, and Jkaen has only voted to lynch people that are now confirmed village. Also, Maniac has been cagey about his power, and with seer/vig/baner known i dont see why he's all super secretive. Whereas Jkaen's power doesn't seem effective for anything at all, and he's been generally cagey about the game with a very high post count. Jkaen for now, more analysis tomorrow.

Side notes to consider: There seems to be wholehearted trust in Selrahc due to the baner claim, but there's no proof that that's actually what he has, so don't automatically give him the village pass for life, especially since that was a last minute before death claim. Also, let's try to cut the crap and hunt wolves, and that means you waterbat. I know you were Lewwyn's best friend, and don't doubt your village with his kill on Zak getting through, but that name mention count is stupid. thestick thestick thestick thestick thestick thestick thestick look I just broke it. Let's focus on thngs that are more relevant and try to find the wolves everybody, shall we?
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A large part of what I've already done and lost three times tonight is to pull those final vote counts from each day, and give everybody still alive a unique color, so what everyone has voted is much more visable. If someone wants to do that before me, feel free.

Another thing I noticed about Jkaen I forgot to mention: People who vote for him seem to die, i.e. Qgqqqqqq a few days ago, and recently both Sareln and Lewwyn. Just saying.
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