WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[Bobchillingworth]

Ok, thx for summarizing it. I believe his claim is true, because he'd easily get caught if someone in fact visited him and he couldn't tell who. He even suggested it. I did not think he could have secondary power as well.

Yeah, I agree that he probably does have the power. I bolded part of what you said, because I just realized that that could be a clear attempt on his part to get any remaining night-action villagers to reveal themselves.

But how believable you think it is that we have 3 identical villager roles and one villager who just stops them? BRicks use of the power does look like a last suicide move, since he was "sure" to go down.

Very unlikely. Which is why this is so infuriating. Metagame screams "Brick or Molach!", intuition tell me "Maniac and/or Jkaen!".

[Maniac]

Um... you're combining a bunch of roles not claimed together

The main reason why some people started believing I was a NAP roleblocker is because of that first Datajack dream. In that first dream the datajack had to have the roles of alignmentseer-roleseer-whisperer to be able to make the claim that he did. (Not nameseer, sorry.) Later dreams take on the persona of Planetmind.

So if because of the dream people believe I am a NAP roleblocker, it means they also believe in the existence of a alignmentseer-roleseer-whisperer(-mindworm). I mean, really??!?

[BRickAstley]

Maniac, I know that I'm not trying to base any of my arguments against you on that dream, but on other stuff like votes. The dream really isn't a big deal, I don't understand why you're choosing that to get worked up about.

[Maniac]

What other arguments are there against me, besides the vague and subjective "posting style"?

Voting record is a lame argument IMO. I have never mislynched anyone so far, yet that is supposed to be the proof I am NAP, rather than village?? Seems like a case of using facts to suit the pre-existent opînion. I bet, regardless of how I voted, my voting record would be used as "proof" of my NAPness.

Regarding voting record, also keep in mind that during the week I am usually unavailable starting from a couple hours before the deadline, so I am unable to change my vote based on the discussions of the last few hours.

[BRickAstley]

Regarding voting record, also keep in mind that during the week I am usually unavailable starting from a couple hours before the deadline, so I am unable to change my vote based on the discussions of the last few hours.

Well see, that makes some sense as to why your votes haven't been on any frontrunners at the end, I'll accept that as a possible reason. It's kinda hard to include that in consideration when we didn't know that though.

[Bobchillingworth]

So if because of the dream people believe I am a NAP roleblocker, it means they also believe in the existence of a alignmentseer-roleseer-whisperer(-mindworm). I mean, really??!?

It could be that the message was sent as reverse psychology, meant to be deliberately unbelievable so that everyone would just automatically discount it. Or maybe a third faction sent it randomly just to screw with everyone and got a lucky hit by accident. I don't know.


The stupid dream isn't the main reason I suspect you, anyway. Basic process of elimination combined with an analysis of existing claimed powers leads to only a handful of suspects for the roleblocker, and you're one of them.



Here's a written analysis for how likely I think each remaining player is of being a NAP roleblocker. I'm assuming the roleblocker must be NAP because there is no evidence otherwise and it's a classic wolf role:

* thestick: almost no chance of being a wolf due to metagame; it strains all credulity to think that two wolves were neighbors with each other. Chance of being the roleblocker: None.

* Waterbat: Very likely to be a villager due to posting, collusion with Lewwyn, voting record. Also has a fairly substantial confirmed power of his own already, and wolves so far have only either had one major power or a bunch of minor ones. Chance of being the roleblocker: Minuscule.

* Bobchillingworth: Okay, well obviously *I* know that I'm village. Reasons for my innocence are mostly same as Waterbat's: voting record, posting substance, confirmed major power. Chance of being the roleblocker: None / Minuscule (depending on whether you're me or not ).

* Selrahc: Probably a villager, although baner claim was made under pressure and not ever actually confirmed. Voting record is villager w/ Injera lynch. Claims a major power, although again not confirmed. Chance of being the roleblocker: Low.

* Meiz: Not sure whether he's a villager or not. If he's a wolf, they started with two duplicate roles, but that's in character with this game. But if he's telling the truth about his powers, he already has two (and the neighbor one is confirmed) and it seems unlikely that he's also a roleblocker. Chance of being the roleblocker: Low.

* Molach: Also not sure about whether he's a villager or not. That diary could have just been written by a team of wolves for all we know, dispersed in the time of need for any Wolf who seemed in danger of hanging. Actually, that seems almost likely. And having him be the Drone Saga wolf does mean the village doesn't have three identical roles. But... he reads like a villager, has a villager voting record, and his power is confirmed- so there really are three rioters out there. Could he also be a roleblocker? I don't know. Chance of being the roleblocker: Medium.

* BRick: A lot of stuff looks bad against him. His anti-village power, his role in the Drone Saga, his recent night action. But like Molach he reads village. And his "atrocity" has also been confirmed. Would he have a second power to go with it? Maybe. I'm really conflicted about his innocence. Chance of being the roleblocker: Medium-High.

* Maniac: Hasn't ever contributed much of anything. Comes across as cagey and aloof. Votes aren't particularly village. But the real concern here is his power- not confirmed, nor even claimed. What village powers could be left which it hurts more than helps to reveal? Maybe he's night-kill immune or something. Message implicating him could have been reverse psychology. In the absence of additional useful information, he's looking like a good suspect. Chance of being the roleblocker: High.

* Jkaen: I gave most of the case against him in my last post. To sum: wolf votes, attempted to save injera, tried to expose nameseer, lame and not particularly pro-village claimed power. Chance of being the roleblocker: High.

[Molach]

If two last wolves are among the fantastic four - BRick, meiz, jkaen, maniac - we will win, barring a hostile planet messing with us.

However as the one player who knows for a fact that there are 3 identical roles, commuters. Hard to kill.

We also got two seers, baner, tracker.

So not that unlikely that NAP got 'weird' roles to help mislynch. Like 4 village drones or perfect-cover-double-NAP-neighbours.

But okay, lets see about BRick then. Its not just the suicide, also I read his latest posts as villagerish.

I'll be properly thrilled if hes evil, but reserve the right to say I told you so if not.

About super aggressive stance vs people suspicious on me...well Im feeling that there are some village sheep bwing herded by the wolves. So im not downright hostile even if it may seem like that. Just want to be sure they really mean it and are not just inventing an excuse to suspect, cuz that is what naps do

[BRickAstley]

So what's the deal with Jkaen?

• Posts 60 and 81: Says that he desires not to have names revealed, also right after Zak's post 80 which shares the same sentiment. Seems extra fishy, Since Bob did scan him later (1298) and found him only having the title engineer, there should be no reason on his own why he'd be reluctant to reveal that.
  
• Post 188: Makes a metagame claim that there can't be a name seer in the game.
  
• Post 402: "I do have some sort of title/position in a similar manner to Tansuke's thinker. No I am not going to claim it as it would hint at my power" So... an engineer would make people think you are a self-watcher? That doesn;t make any sense to me.
  
• Post 866: "If the wolves want to waste a kill on a name seer rather than taking out either somebody like zak, or possibly the baner (or heck the alignment seer), then I say let them." Would be fine with the name seer dying, and makes a statement about the wolves targeting zak, which could be trying to establish Zak as village.
  
• Post 932: Attacks Lewwyn some more, which he's done for a while, and tries to further discredit the role of nameseer.
  
• Post 940 & 971 & 974: Picks up on the waterbat name seer claim and asks for more clarification.
  
• Post 1024: "Oh and i think both (Lewwyn) and Marr are NAP". Since the writing is starting to be on the wall for Marr's death at this point, even though he;s solely been against Lewwyn at this point he now also places potential guilt on Marr/Zak too, which seems to me like an attempt to either distance himself or set up a later Lewwyn lynch.
  
• Post 1025: "I can easily explain things by waterbat being village and 'mr day 3' being NAP" Remember that Mister Day 3 at this point has already been said by waterbat to be the name seer.
  
• Post 1054: More potential data to bring back later after Marr dies to attack Lewwyn with.
  
• Post 1096: Is trying his best more than anyone to narrow down the name seer.
  
• Post 1171: "i dont like the injera lynch. Slow or lewwyn i can get arou
  nf, but please not injera" First real mention of Injera from Jkaen, with a request not to lynch him.
  
• Post 1332: Now votes Lewwyn for mayor, even though he said before that he thinks BOTH Lewwyn and Marr could be NAP, now that Zak is dead his tune changes. Claims a power that is already confirmed in it's only use, by Bob's name see.
  

So what do I see from all of this?

• Play at the start trying to discount the point of revealing names, which parallels Zak's desires. Considering that his name doesn't mean anything there seems to be no good reason that as a villager that's such a problem.
  
• When Waterbat reveals that he's spoken to the name seer, Jkaen is resolute in trying to get the name of said name seer from Waterbat. If they find the name seer he can be taken out before Lewwyn finds his target.
  
• Has a claim that his name (engineer) revealing would hint to his power, when there seems to be no real correlation. Looks like a delaying action to me.
  
• The entire Lewwyn Marr saga. Flips everywhere around the board, from Lewwyn is the NAP, to both are the NAP, to just Marr is the NAP. That just feels very cagey and indicative of changing a story around to avoid too much scrutiny.
  
• The voting record of everyone that he has cast a final vote on being a confirmed villager, as well as not voting for either novice or Injera when they were on the block. Seems to be sloppy wolf play to me.
  

So yeah, there's an analysis based on what Jkaen has said in his posts and in his votes. Decide for yourself, but he seems like a very likely safe bet for wolf today.

Crosspost with Bob- If Jkaen happens to be the roleblocker then we'll get a huge victory here today. Based on what he's said about his power I agree that it is possible.

[Meiz]

I think Bob had an excellent analysis of the Injera votes in here, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1219

My best bets would be BRick and Jkaen, mostly by process of elimination and metagame. Gotta say, Maniac is very good at acting if he's Nap.

Crossposting with Bob, and I really like his list, Jkaen

[Maniac]

This will be my last post before the deadline, so I'll repeat: I'll tell my power in private to waterbat if he creates a telepathic link. Perhaps he can help me put it to good use.