WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[BRickAstley]

I believe BRickAstley is the whisperer/picture sender, and sent that pic hoping we'd do the opposite.

..............Seriously?

I sent myself two dreams and everybody else two pictures that depict me in them supposed to be dying, and I sent waterbat a message that has a kill-list that includes myself?

Maniac

Whoever this whisperer/picture-drawer is surely crazy and isn't making things simple, but like I've been trying to say lately we need to cut through all this crap of meta-speculation and sub-plots and focus on what we can find that are good solid wolf tells. Not give in to this hysteria that we've been dealing with for the last few days that have gotten us mislynches and every day this much closer to losing the game! And you've been one of the fuelers of this, and now you try and bring this to the table as an accusation against me?



You're not making any sense, and you're giving me a headache. You tell waterbat "Perhaps he can help me put it to good use." and then "If I'm suddenly killed by NAP now, you know who to suspect", so you don't appear to even want help unless you're pulling your strings on it. You're basing your defense on that dream about you being hogwash, when that hasn't been the main driving point, at least for me. You tried to start a vote on Bob of all people being the NAP-roleblocker. You focus what arguments you have against people based on noise that's been flowing into this game and meta-speculation. And frankly, if you can't tell, I'm REALLY tired of all of that clouding up of people's minds and tells that has been happening.

Go die and join your wolf brethren.




BTW Selrahc, I didn't mean that you should have role-claimed at any other time, that was the only and perfect time to do so as true baner. It's just unfortunate that since you haven't been able to block anybody successfully, there's no undeniable proof that that IS your power. I'm still not the biggest fan of your play and don't have a 100% village read on you, but I more wanted to get an explanation and some action from you from me calling out on the matter, and I like what you said, so thanks.

[BRickAstley]

Bigger himself was involved in that fiasco, not to completely meta-game, but I wouldn't be the least but surprised if he paid homage to that game by placing something similar in here.

Need to continue on the role-blocker path.

The first dream hasn't been proven false, but I don't see how it fits. If we are to believe the first picture, worms are good. The told us maniac was the role-blocker and that brick needs to die. But ..... What the hell is the second pic? We didn't heed them, so their heart is broken, and now they kill us?

Haha. Or. Bear with me here.

The man in the picture was thestick. The worm's host just died and the worm is sad. Bigger might be making these pictures himself.

Also bigger trolling me with inclusion of worm in write up. Meiz, if the stick isn't worm, what do you think about the power you gained? Why do you think he was interested in powers gained?

Waterbat.

I know that you're cool cause Lewwyn got his kill and all. But if you don't SHUT UP about some of this nonsense you like to peddle around about flavor and meta-junk then you might need to go next. Unfortunately, we don't have very much room for mis-lynches left at all so if it is just stupid villager play like it really really reads then that would be a bad call. Just please try not to keep being so terribly distracting from actually finding and outing wolves mmmmkay?

[Maniac]

I sent myself two dreams and everybody else two pictures that depict me in them supposed to be dying, and I sent waterbat a message that has a kill-list that includes myself?

Yep.

Not give in to this hysteria that we've been dealing with for the last few days that have gotten us mislynches and every day this much closer to losing the game! And you've been one of the fuelers of this, and now you try and bring this to the table as an accusation against me?

I have yet to mislynch anyone in this game. :D And the main reason for suspecting you is your nerve staple ability.

You're not making any sense, and you're giving me a headache. You tell waterbat "Perhaps he can help me put it to good use." and then "If I'm suddenly killed by NAP now, you know who to suspect", so you don't appear to even want help unless you're pulling your strings on it.

What's strange about those posts? Yes, I want help, and I hope waterbat is a villager who can give me that. But if waterbat were NAP, they'd know my power now, which puts me in danger.

You're basing your defense on that dream about you being hogwash, when that hasn't been the main driving point, at least for me.

What is the main driving point for you again?

You tried to start a vote on Bob of all people being the NAP-roleblocker.

I made like one post about that, before Bob's role was known. Are you gonna drag up the fact I suspected thestick at the start of the game now?

You focus what arguments you have against people based on noise that's been flowing into this game and meta-speculation. And frankly, if you can't tell, I'm REALLY tired of all of that clouding up of people's minds and tells that has been happening.

Your nerve staple ability is noise and meta-speculation?

[BRickAstley]

Yep.

That's the craziest theory I've seen going around on here. I don't even rightly know what to say to that.

I have yet to mislynch anyone in this game. :D And the main reason for suspecting you is your nerve staple ability.

Yes, you've yet to mislynch, I'll agree with you there. But that's also part of the issue in that you rarely seem to get onboard with lynch attempts that might actually happen, other than the obvious novice reveal. Between that and your tendency to make vote posts without much explanation, it feels like you're just throwing votes around without giving any real reasoning in doing so or much necessity for your voice to actually make a difference. And if you're declaring your preference based on principle to say what you need to say, I mean that's normally understandable, but at this point we don't have room for error to waste votes on.

What's strange about those posts? Yes, I want help, and I hope waterbat is a villager who can give me that. But if waterbat were NAP, they'd know my power now, which puts me in danger.

Because it feels like you're playing something fishy. At first you asked waterbat for help and to come neighborize you for help with what your ability is. Now it sounds like if any foul play happens to you, he's the obvious hostage that will automatically be accountable. You asked him for help and then but a gun to his head, and if he makes any sudden unexpected moves he's dead, which doesn't seem very nice at all.

What is the main driving point for you again?

I'm going to expand on that based on Bob's post yesterday, I feel he gives a good summation:

Hasn't ever contributed much of anything. Comes across as cagey and aloof. Votes aren't particularly village. But the real concern here is his power- not confirmed, nor even claimed. What village powers could be left which it hurts more than helps to reveal? Maybe he's night-kill immune or something. Message implicating him could have been reverse psychology. In the absence of additional useful information, he's looking like a good suspect.

You haven't been a huge contributor of anything of value, and don't like to respond very often to questions, like Bob said. The part with your power ties in with waterbat. When he says what he said in his last post, it seems to me like you're not wanting him to actually say what the ability is, which doesn't make sense after you asked to talk to him in private in the first place. All of the main power roles have been taken, and it doesn't seem like any ability you have could be quite that important to make such a huge ruckus about it.

I made like one post about that, before Bob's role was known. Are you gonna drag up the fact I suspected thestick at the start of the game now?

Oh, I mixed up when that post was. I thought it was on the 26th not the 23rd, since there was a 3 day gap in posts from you, and I mis-read the numbers, so that was before Bob revealed, my bad.

Even so, it's an example of why I and others don't like you. You make an argument, but you don't base it on any sort of gameplay, you base it on his name, which Bigger said at the start of the game can be revealed without consequence. Now that's been a bickering issue throughout the game, with the Lewwyn/Zak ordeal, but they did have same names to claim. So IF we accept arguments based on meta, it isn't one that makes sense or would hold up. But I would say that especially now meta based posts are largely fruitless and even negative. Do you at least acknowledge that that was a bad argument?

Your nerve staple ability is noise and meta-speculation?

My nerve stable ability is exactly what I've said it is and what has been discussed a thousand times already. If there is some sort of argument that works with gameplay and arguments made that you wanna bring against me regarding it, woohoo. But when this turns into a game of "Let's guess what Bigger was most likely to do with the setup and kill people based on that" it's bad.




Internet access will be blocked here in 10 minutes so I'm gone for the night, see you all tomorrow.

[Meiz]

My thoughts on Selrahc:

He could be a wolf, but he doesn't seem as likely a suspect as Brick, Meiz or Maniac. About as likely as Molach, although I still think that diary thing is weird. Why would a wolf fake-claim baner to stay alive, when the other person up was also a wolf? It could be that Selrahc's power was much more powerful than Injera's, and keeping himself alive was a priority- this might make sense if he is roleblocker, since that seems like a much better wolf role than delayed-lyncher, but surely the pack could have done more to prevent two wolves being up at the same time, like throwing more votes on Lewwyn- they wouldn't even have needed too many to lynch him, since Zak could double-vote.

Third faction / SK makes some more sense, although I'm seeing a lot more conjecture than evidence (albeit that's describes the cases against every suspect now). I'm eager to get any more use out of my power that I can, so I could scan Selrahc tonight to find out what his deal is.

We're becoming dangerously close to lynch or lose situation. Don't think we have much time to rely on your name scanning, we simply have to avoid lynching a villager at all cost.

Zak's constant attacks against Maniac is quite clear sign they were on dofferent side. It was not just during Injera lynch, but more constantly (I had one post with collected quotes).

Ok if not Maniac, then who? Imagine I'm right on 1nap + 1sk being left (I think very likely ). That would mean 1 nap is most likely role blocker. Both Injeta and Selrahc had gained lot of heat, I think wolves simply couldn't influence who ended up there, but not from lack of trying. Go back there and read posts from Zak and Injera. Did thet push Selrahc on top? Did Selrahc push Injera on top?

Assuming they had Injera (claimed power) and Selrahc (nap roleblocker) on top, it makes sense to save Selrahc. It would make even more sense to save both, which is why Zak started to push thestick.

Claiming baner is high risk / high reward. They could be more confident on "no baner" if none of the drones is not nap. They allready had 3x night kill immunie players against them.

Speaking from drones, I think it makes perfect sense to assign serial killer as one of the drones, being night kill immunie and all. And have one villager who has a chance to counter that, but with the cost of disabling two villager drones. Sk could still do genuine nap huntinh, and gain good deep cover in the village. Own diary is one perfect additional tool to accomplish that. Like nap, serial killer also had time to plan before the game started.

Thestick was worker, which was a name mentioned in "mindworm kill list". Makes sense that sk made the kill.

So selrahc = last nap roleblocker
Molach = mind worm serial killer

[Bigger]

lynch votes:

maniac - bob, molach, BrickAstley
selrahc - meiz, waterbat
brickastley - maniac

not voting - Selrahc

13 hours until deadline

[Selrahc]

I think very likely [there is a serial killer]

Why?
A serial killer is a specific role which can kill every night. There has been just one night with a double murder. Explain that.

And since you're positing that I am a NAP, you'll also need to explain that without including potential banes if you want to continue suspecting me.


Third faction with a one shot or highly limited vig ability? Maybe. It would explain that double kill(although it may also be a NAP ability). Serial killer? Almost definitely not.

[Meiz]

Why?
A serial killer is a specific role which can kill every night. There has been just one night with a double murder. Explain that.

And since you're positing that I am a NAP, you'll also need to explain that without including potential banes if you want to continue suspecting me.

I'm immunie to mindworm attacks and so was Injera. So there is neuteal party making attacks. Some deaths had nap notes while some deaths were "mysterious". So nap and sk alternate kills.

I can and will suspect you simply because your not trying to help village, just cruising along. I think I've explained my thoughts well enough.

[Selrahc]

Some deaths had nap notes while some deaths were "mysterious".

I don't think that really makes sense. Are you claiming that every kill that didn't have a note was done by the "Serial Killer"? That would imply that the NAP basically hasn't done very many kills at all... There are only around 2 kills that actually had notes.

It would be a very unusual thing for the fluff posts of the game to be giving away direct gameplay information in that way. Every other time when I remember similar arguments being brought up, they've turned out to be unfounded with the GM not intentionally putting that information in their write-ups.

So nap and sk alternate kills.

Well we know for a fact that this isn't true because of the night of the double kill, so come up with something else.

From a game design point, that isn't great either. A serial killer is a very specific role which entails that sole survival is the victory condition. It's really hard to win with. You are claiming that this role has been weakened by halving the number of kills available, and then weakened again by making some players immune. This doesn't make sense.

What might make sense is a third party with an alternate win condition and a range of consumable powers which aid them in this. A non-comparable rather than an impossible objective.

I'm immunie to mindworm attacks and so was Injera. So there is neutral party making attacks.

But that doesn't lead at all to the conclusion that they must of necessity be a serial killer. Given that both you and Injera already had an entire full powerset that was considered fine for TheStick and Tasunke, any abilities added on top do not have to be something that necessarily is fantastic. An ability to protect from the one-shot kill of a third faction isn't a great power, but it doesn't necessarily have to be. Not when you're already a neighbour/delay killer/wolf.

The fact that Injera had an anti-mind-worm ability almost guarantees a third faction with a kill ability. That doesn't lead into serial killer. The amount of kills is almost definitive evidence that there is no serial killer.

[Meiz]

Your hanging on to specific term here. When I talk of serial killer, I'm not talking about some specific role that's picked from mafiawiki. It seems like we agree on 3rd party player who has some sort of abilities to make kills. Victory condition might not be to survive until end, but to get specidic players dead (antichilds or whatever)

This is perfect example why I'm voting for you. Lot of discussion on metagame etc, you even agree on the 3rd party. Yet no attempts to actually hunt down that player, or nap.