WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[waterbat]

Well, maniac confided in me, but I believe we are beyond the point when his power could help us. As I tried to tell him, it's more important we classify him as village ( thereby narrowing the list of suspects). That being said, I dont think his power claim puts him in that category, but you more experienced players may think differently.

Tldr: He has night-kill immunity good for 1 time. So nap have to kill him 2x. His posts prior to each deadline were trying to draw night kills. He never got killed. Even now, he wanted me to hint that his power was important so that he would be night killed. ( but not too important that a baner would protect him). He said a success in this plan would give us an extra day, but in fact, ( if we have 0 kills tonight and if I understand the game correctly), we would end a day at 2-1 (instead of 3-1) and the lone remaining nap would kill and end the game.

In shorter, this info doesn't help us at all unless you read it as completely village or completely fabricated.


Here are the posts ( one x-post when he responded to my planting the hint his power was important):

Hi waterbat,

Sorry for the late message. I'm moving house, so I have limited internet access.

Anyway, my power is... dun DUN DUN... a 1-shot night kill immunity. Yeah, not game-shaking I'm afraid.

Reasons for keeping it hidden besides the ones already mentioned in public:

1) there are already 3 drones with another variety of kill immunity. I might not even be believed I had one too.

2) Most importantly of course, if the wolves know my power, they'll either simply avoid me, rendering it useless, or can just roleblock and kill me in the same night.

My power is only useful if the wolves try to kill me without roleblocking me. I've been shouting my suspect for the next day at the top of my lungs at the start of each night, hoping the wolves would pick me as their kill if my target was NAP, but to no avail. And since I'm now considered one the prime suspects, the wolves are even less likely to kill me. Their pattern for the last couple kills seems to be to kill players who aren't suspected by anyone. That's why they killed thestick IMO.

Any ideas? Perhaps you can tell the village my power is really important? If NAP believes you, they might want to target me, or perhaps roleblock me, giving Selrahc free reign.

Greetings,

Maniac

Greetings Maniac!

so... The village would like to know your power.

If its decent, I hope I can help you put it to use.

I am really intrigued.

Also - What did you think of thestick's death? Something strange is afoot.

Also - we are at the stage were a voting block of 2 can be quite powerful. I would like to work with you if we need to put pressure on someone. THe problem is - its like all is revealed. We are just waiting to see if we are right or not. If your power shakes the status quo up, I'm all for it.

Responding to my main thread post:

1) I reveal your power, you surely get night killed.

Just tell the village my power is really important or something without going into specifics. The idea is to make NAP kill me without roleblocking me.

but if you get night killed, I'm supposed to be suspect

Two reasons for that message:
1) If now I suddenly get roleblocked and killed, then yes, you're a likely suspect.
2) That message might make NAP more likely to kill just to make you suspicious. As long as they don't roleblock me at the same time, we just won an extra day for the village.

Greetings,

Maniac

Completely understand your situation. I planted in the thread that what power you had would get you killed, BUT I think it's best that we just fully reveal. We don't have much time to play games here.

What's the rush? As long as I'm not in danger of being lynched, I don't see an immediate reason for a full reveal. Perhaps if you assure the crowd I have legit reasons for my secrecy, at least Bob will switch to someone else. If he doesn't reconsider and I remain prime suspect, then we can reevaluate if it's necessary for a full reveal.

Also, do you really want to lynch Selrahc??

Even worse, someone is going to jump to the conclusion that the NAP decided not to kill to give you strong cover.

There seem sufficient ways to counterargue that. The pattern that NAP is killing off those considered innocent. The theory that NAP might have thought Selrahc was protecting me and so killed someone else.

For now I'd suggest you just assure the village of the importance of my role (I guess don't overdo it, or NAP might see through it) and the legitimacy of my reasons for secrecy.

Greetings,

Maniac

Another concern, even if we know tell what my ability is, it isn't assured that everyone will believe me. So revealing my ability won't necessarily put me in the innocent camp.

Given this, I don't think the rewards outweigh the risk.

While we argue about this, could you at least already make the post about me having legit reasons for the secrecy? As you say, people need time to read it and change their votes.

Maniac

The rush is, I owe it to the other guys with enough time to decide. I know you want to " buy us a day", but re- examine that, it isn't true.

I'd rather put you in the innocent camp and then take 2 shots with improved odds.

Brick's coming unhinged, but I don't blame him - this is frustrating.

No offense at that last part, brick.

[waterbat]

8 hours until lynch. Hopefully i didn't miss everyone. I'm on phone doing all of this, so slow.

To maniac: apologize for the full reveal. If your power was a lock to confirm you, no doubt I would have held off. Unfortunately, we could delay a day and if you are NAP you could have just chosen not to kill anyone tonight, claim your power has been used up and coast to the win. In fact, it seems this is exactly what was designed.

Bob, selrahc, Meiz, brick, Thoughts??

[waterbat]

And molach!

[waterbat]

Uhhh. Is it a form of profile camping to note that someone was online and replying to this thread after I posted, but then never sent anything? I mean, it makes me suspicious, but doesn't seem right to use.

[waterbat]

Actually, I probably in that state quite often with my phone. I will disregard.

[Maniac]

To maniac: apologize for the full reveal.

In combination with you trying to lynch Selrahc, I consider you more likely to be a NAP now. Your strong insistence on a full reveal could be a way so that, if I now get killed, the blame can't be placed on you.

[Bobchillingworth]

Ok if not Maniac, then who? Imagine I'm right on 1nap + 1sk being left (I think very likely ). That would mean 1 nap is most likely role blocker. Both Injeta and Selrahc had gained lot of heat, I think wolves simply couldn't influence who ended up there, but not from lack of trying. Go back there and read posts from Zak and Injera. Did thet push Selrahc on top? Did Selrahc push Injera on top?

Assuming they had Injera (claimed power) and Selrahc (nap roleblocker) on top, it makes sense to save Selrahc. It would make even more sense to save both, which is why Zak started to push thestick.

Claiming baner is high risk / high reward. They could be more confident on "no baner" if none of the drones is not nap. They allready had 3x night kill immunie players against them.

Hmm. One thing which I feel may be slipping by in the discussion is that if Selrahc is lying about his role, how do we know that there's even a role-blocker out there? I may have missed it, but I don't remember anyone else actually saying that they got role-blocked. But if there's no role-blocker, and Selrahc is a wolf, why would they make so much of an effort to spare him instead of Injera, when again Zak (doublevoting) + maybe one other could have killed Lewwyn? It doesn't make much sense to me.


I do think that your earlier theory of Selrahc being 3rd party was more plausible, but you seem to have completely dropped that & now say that he's more likely a wolf. Why the change? And why Molach and not Brick as the 3rd party, if you believe that one of the Drone Saga people is a SK? Just the diary?


One more question- why are you so certain that we're up against one 3rd party player and one wolf? Game logic?

Your hanging on to specific term here. When I talk of serial killer, I'm not talking about some specific role that's picked from mafiawiki. It seems like we agree on 3rd party player who has some sort of abilities to make kills. Victory condition might not be to survive until end, but to get specidic players dead (antichilds or whatever)

All the above said, totally agree with Meiz here. Don't be obtuse, Selrahc. I have been considering the terms interchangeable for this game, since I see no practical difference between a tiny 3rd faction which night kills, and a SK who night kills. I have no idea why you keep obsessing over what seem like minor details in this game. You are about as unhelpful as Conspiracy Maniac, and I'd be much more inclined to just lynch you on principle if nothing else, were we not getting down to the wire here.

Bob, selrahc, Meiz, brick, Thoughts??

I'm not sure his claimed power really tells us much of anything. I actually guessed it a day or two ago, seemed kind of obvious with the name "Citizen's Defense Force", although I'd hope he'd at least have silverblood powers or something.


Maniac's actions are logical, to an extent. Claiming he was invulnerable at the start of the game may be been an attempt to both draw wolf attention (so they waste a kill) and to inform the village of his power. And, if true, he does have a power which works better if the wolves don't know about it (so they don't just ignore him from their pool of night kills).



That said, it isn't a claim which proves innocence. "I don't die in the night" is awfully easy to claim when you're a wolf. Even if he really does have the power, it would still work as a wolf ability, to shield vs. vigs and 3rd parties. And of course we can't actually verify anything.


I also think that, if Maniac is a villager and is telling the truth, he could have used his power a little more effectively. Tried faking a claim or something to draw a kill. Same was the case for Jkaen, if your power requires active participation on your part, you've got to get out there and make it work, not sit back and fling frankly stupid conspiracy accusations at BRick & others.



So, I could see a case for either way with him. I'd be willing to switch off, but to who? I think there are better wolf suspects than Selrahc, based on what I wrote above. To Meiz maybe, who seems a lot more assured of certain game details than anyone else? Not before he has a chance to explain his reasoning, plus right now that's not a whole lot better reason to vote for him over Maniac. Back to BRick or Molach? Sad thing is with those guys, if either of them is a wolf, they're providing more useful analysis than most of the rest of the village

[Meiz]

Hmm. One thing which I feel may be slipping by in the discussion is that if Selrahc is lying about his role, how do we know that there's even a role-blocker out there? I may have missed it, but I don't remember anyone else actually saying that they got role-blocked. But if there's no role-blocker, and Selrahc is a wolf, why would they make so much of an effort to spare him instead of Injera, when again Zak (doublevoting) + maybe one other could have killed Lewwyn? It doesn't make much sense to me.


I do think that your earlier theory of Selrahc being 3rd party was more plausible, but you seem to have completely dropped that & now say that he's more likely a wolf. Why the change? And why Molach and not Brick as the 3rd party, if you believe that one of the Drone Saga people is a SK? Just the diary?


One more question- why are you so certain that we're up against one 3rd party player and one wolf? Game logic?

Serdoa got blocked.

Yes, changed my mind. I think one essential ability for 3rd party is some sort of protection against nap kills. So that their game isn't ruined by death they have no way to affect. Seeing Maniacs claim, he could be the other option. But 3 identical drones is simply too odd...

I'm not sure, just guessing based on people we have left.

[waterbat]

In combination with you trying to lynch Selrahc, I consider you more likely to be a NAP now. Your strong insistence on a full reveal could be a way so that, if I now get killed, the blame can't be placed on you.

We are hunting the ROLE BLOCKER. we needed the info I wasnt deceptive - i said I would let the village know what your role was if it seemed like the best course.

actually - wasnt sold on Selrahc at all - but at 2 on Maniac and 2 on Selrahc I feel we get a LOT of info on who breaks that up. Bob's on you - so you are effectively ahead by 1. I did this several times in the last game - create the tie and watch if/who/when/how it gets broken. I have said several times - i am terrible at reads, but am better at discrete puzzles like the voting pattern/history.

Now - I know I ruined your power - but i don't see how the NAP night-kill the #1 target on the block. Even if we choose to put someone else down!

They've surprised us with the kills, but they haven't selected the lynch targets - only the middle of the roads. Even Llewwyn was still under a little suspicion. They've avoided the completely cleareds (bob, selrahc, myself?), that is curious.


long x-post - havent read Bob's yet.

[Bobchillingworth]

Serdoa got blocked

Ah, right forgot about that



I still don't entirely understand why they didn't just mislynch Lewwyn if they had the people around, but I don't want to obsess over that. TBH right now I can see good cases to vote for everyone except I guess Waterbat, who if nothing else posts some of the strangest stuff with such alarming frequency that I just can't envision him as a wolf Argh.