WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[waterbat]

Molach:

2 scenarios,
1) you are village and you have decided on my guilt (defcon 1) and so are fitting everything I do into that assumption. Ninja mislynch? Everyone was actively posting except for selrahc. My vote was done I believe with 30 minutes to go. Why do much time if my intent was to ninja you? I thought I was effectively making the decision for the village, and I hate being in that position - that's why I was so worked up about it.

2) you are NAP and these last couple posts are well crafted indeed.

----

I started the day ( after Coming off selrahc) ready to resolve the drone saga with no idea who was going to get my vote. I preferred brick, but then you both!! responded the same way:

Molach: it's waterbat and brick, let's do brick first
Brick: it's waterbat and molach, let's do molach first

In this situation, I'm deciding my own fate. Either the immediate game end ( if 2 nap ) or setting up what happens tomorrow ( if 1 nap)

If I vote brick and he turns up village, tonight you kill bob. Tomorrow you get selrahc to mislynch me on the basis of the fact that I am the one to kill brick.

If I vote brick and he turns up wolf, we win OR have to deal with the sk. But you've basically told me in private you believe I am the third party if I am not nap. So I'm dead tomorrow and we lose anyway.

If I vote molach and he turns up village, brick kills bob tonight ( or selrahc ), but then unless something crazy happens, we lynch brick ftw.

If i vote molach and he turns up wolf, we win OR have to deal with the sk. Im not the sk At that point, there won't be a misguided molach on me and trying to convince whose left that I am.

So even if I'm 50-50 on molach or brick, those factors make me vote molach - we have a much better chance of winning if the game continues.

The other factor is that I obviously trust bob's judgement more than yours at this point. He's also not actively trying to get a mislynch ( or two ).

[waterbat]

Asking because mabye roleblocker had finite charges too, and ran dry the night serdoa died.

if night doesn't matter, why are you worried about how many charges the roleblocker has?

If I was selrahc I wouldn't answer this just yet.

[Molach]

To above, because BRick is saying that I'm guilty because noone has been blocked recently. But it's possible that blocker ran out of juice, and THAT is why noone has been blocked recently.

I still think that was THE game-winning switch you made, anyway. Ideally a ninja switch is 5 seconds before 00:00 so noone can react. In practise, risky because mabye your time is off and you do it too early and someone (Bob in this case) can pick it up and switch. Also risky because if you vote too late vote doesn't count. Me and novice went through this last game, and we ended up with switching 4 minutes before, but give 'good' reasons. So not implausible to do it 20 minutes before with good reasoning.

I am villager, and you should have known this deep down if you are one too, so go by alternative 1, if you will.

Anyway BRick first.

[waterbat]

Oh, I highly doubt that brick stapling you is behind the lack of blocks. I think it prevents you from rioting, but don't think it stops you from performing other activities.

I am villager, and you should have known this deep down if you are one too

I'd know it "deep down" if I was NAP. Also, both you and brick are attacking someone I know is a villager in addition to each other. If you are both villagers - why not both vote me if you are so sure of it. If Bob or Selrahc buys it, you win, right?

In any event, this should convince Brick that I am not your partner - but again, I wasn't worried about any case he would make tomorrow.

[Molach]

Bob respond plz.

Before the switch I was not dead set on waterbat.
But obvious now.

Of course obvious to me because I know Im villager, bob you get the tough choice, and face the wrath of the dead- lurking villagers if you choose wrong.

[Molach]

Okay, quick sum up if you don't have time to read all.

At lylo all villagers must get it right.

Bob: If you are village and think Selrahc is too.
Selrahc voted BRick, you voted Molach.
One villager got it wrong.

If it had been Selrahc then BRick would have been the lynched one.
But it was Molach that ended up getting lynched. So _you_ got it wrong

Only the lynch was today instead.

(At 23:38)
I switched due to selrahc being completely cut off from Internet when I asked for the pause.

So. I've got 2 guys who want to lynch me tomorrow. I'm village, so I should vote the person more likely to pull it off tomorrow. Something tells me molach is more capable of getting it done.

That added to bob's vote - I trust him most of anyone - I really should be voting molach. Will not be surprised at all if this is a last ditch cover attempt by 2 nap. Or 1 nap fighting the third party. Either of these situations keeps us in the game.

Also in our conversations, I feel like molach is just going to defcon 1 me tomorrow and that doesn't seem pro-village - especially as I am innocent.

Molach

This I see as the switch to hammer & win.

(At 00:24)
Uhhh. Bigger? Did I miss something about delay of the deadline?

(Nervous) "Bigger, come on and declare the win already?"

I was asleep for all this, so picked it up this morning.

Bob, I'm pretty sure this game is effectively over once you decide your vote. If vote me then NAP wins. If BRick is NAP then it has to be waterbat NAP for the win. Still hard to comprehend after all that has gone down, but the late switch seals the deal. I suspect we were gonna lose today if it had not been for that slip, waterbat thinking last night was lynch night. So consider carefully before snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

If it is selrahc & bob then you will win anyway, so feel free to do what you want then.

[waterbat]

I have to agree with one thing you posted

If it is selrahc & bob then you will win anyway, so feel free to do what you want then.

I'm not sure I agree with anything else - in fact - the "I was asleep for this part" makes me more convinced that you are fabricating this.

Everyone but Selrahc was here and alert.

You posted at 14:22 forum time
I posted at 14:38 forum time. A late, but not a last minute switch by any stretch.
You weren't awake for 16 minutes? Now you claim to be asleep "for all this"

Also - I obviously was confused about the deadline - but if we are at lylo (3v2) - where was my wolf partner? Unless my wolf-partner is Selrahc, I find it difficult how such a mistake could be made.

I don't think we are at lylo and both members of the drone saga, Molach and Brick, are threats to humanity - our NAP and SK respectively. As I stated before - I actually don't have a strong preference for the lynch today. It's tomorrow I was worried about - especially if Bob dies. I don't want to see another endgame like WW14: me alive as villager and watching helplessly as Molach slips the knife in.

At first I strongly suspected it was thestick who put himself in the dream "to be culled/pruned list", but after he died Brick has to be the one. I was expecting someone to claim to be "The Merchant" as the game progressed in order to avoid being labelled as the mindworm, but it never happened.

[Bigger]

vote tally:

molach (3) - bob, Brick, waterbat
Brick (2) - Selrahc, molach


3 hours to go

[Bobchillingworth]

Molach- I understand your distress if you're village, and I'll take the blame if I end up losing us the game. But I'm going to hear this same heartfelt stuff from whoever is up on the block at this point, and eventually I know that I just have to take a stand. I'll watch this thread as best I can for the next three hours (although I'm going to be doing other stuff during that time, I'll have a tab open), but for now my vote remains on you.


I'm not sure what to make of waterbat's "slip". Honest mistake, slightly early last-minute vote spoiler attempt, faked as a psychological tactic to get me to switch from you, I could see it any of those ways.

[Molach]

I went to bed after my post. Lynch hour is midnight for me.

And waterbat, do a 'if Molach is innocent, then....'-analysis. Convince me.
I know Im innocent. So if you are too, who is the last nap?
Bob or selrahc, and why?

...

Thats why Im pretty sure now.

Lurkers, place your bets.