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WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

Selrahc review:

Selrahc Wrote:Still internetless. Hoping to have that remedied shortly, and I'll be reading/posting during lulls at work. For the moment though... reduced game presence.

I actually feel like mass claims is a good idea in this game. If the wolfs try fake claims of roles, we can get a picture of how credible their claims are as more game info is revealed. It also means forcing wolves into having to come up with creative roles quickly, which can be hard and could easily be messed up. On the other hand they could all claim Vanillager which could be spotted by the demographics of the village. Either way it gives us lots of tools and chances to spot wolves, and the info revealled will only become more valuable as the game goes on. History suggests we won't get the unanimity of opinion to enact a mass claim, but I bet it's objectively a good move.

My gut read so far has a mild scum feel on Gaspar. Mainly cos I felt his situation read on Injera/Catwalk was a little too labored.

The people voting Tasunke should probably try.learning from experience. Tasunke has IIRC, been either lynched early due to crazy behaviour or let live and become a trusted villager because he is easy to read. First lynching him seems like a bad idea. Go for somebody more inscrutable.

First opening post very late in the day, cover with an excuse for inactivity, which I dont think should impact the judgement at all. Calls for a mass claim even though he acknowledges that all the wolves can just claim vanilla, hence I see only helping wolves. Gut vote on Gaspar which can be easily switched. Defense of Tansuke which I think is more than reasonable

Selrahc Wrote:Hum. Torn on this. The more vague you let somebody be, the more they can get away with in a false claim. Nailing people down to specifics can make a slip up emerge. If people had pushed me into giving more details about my baner claim in WW15, I would have been in a more precarious position.

Piecemeal roleclaiming is bad. We need to do it as a group if its going to happen or it loses.a lot of value.

Incidentally. The "meta" in ACwolf wasn't necessarily a bad thing. The drone saga really did give us a massive and helpful piece of information that could have won the game. The messages could really have been used to find me, and work out the third faction. The chorus of people trying to shut down meta discussion did a lot of harm. All the big puzzles were left unsolved. I'd like to say to anyone trying to work out the meta on the roles revealled in this game to speak up. Discussing thimgs as a group is how we work as a village. Shutting down the discussion is more likely to end in the issues being left unresolved and open for manipulation. Solving the role distribution puzzle *is* a part of all games with hidden set up. Let it play out even if it isn't traditional scum hunting.

Pushes again for the mass role claim, then fogs it in historic posting

Selrahc Wrote:Bigger won't be cleared until we have a better idea of what the Bigger voters pan out as.

Jumping off the stick after a claim is fine. I see that as pretty villagerish behaviour. I'm fairly sure that at least one of them is a wolf too, but I don't think it's nearly so cut and dried as all that. The "bigger push" would be the natural result of a bunch of people voting solely on the basis of avoiding a lynch on a claimed power role.



Interesting. And the fact that Twinkletoes makes the leap off Mattimeo for roleclaim based reasons but not off theStick for the same implies an inconsistent overt decision making process... more indicative of a wolf than a villager.

Tries to discredic the scum factor on jumping onto Bigger, pushes forward TT as an option for doing what lots of others did as well (not believe thesticks claim)

Selrahc Wrote:Day 1 is a goldmine of information, but the actual lynch is generally pretty chaotic. I would seriously doubt that the cross game average for day one lynches is any better than random chance.

Noise

Selrahc Wrote:Can I ask.. has Mattimeo claimed a role name or just a power? Thestick was a "spy", I'd like to know if there is a similar nom de guerre for the cloaker. Is it just cloaker?

Pushing for Matt to claim his role name

Selrahc Wrote:Qg can be coherent. I think he was posting in a much more articulate fashion in WW15 and elsewhere on the forum that I've seen him comment. This game though seems like a descent into incomprehensibility.

Why? I think if I was a wolf, I might well advise Qg to play up an angle of being a "weird" poster, who tend to be unlynchable while also not being expected to contribute a lot.

Qg

Vote on Qg who has gained a lot of other attention for his poorly set up posts, which I happily believe are due to internet access

Selrahc Wrote:It might give us a pointer towards inactive/inexperienced wolves? If he flips wolf.

Pushes the inexperienced wolf angle, which while possibly true I can't see how it helps us find wolves, other than possibly dismissing the most dangerous players

Selrahc Wrote:He has flipped the lists. 1 refers to less active, 2 to less experienced.

Working under the assumption that it's the right theory to be holding is definitely jumping the gun at this point. But a Sareln lynch might be valauable as a corroboraating or refuting point...

Really, if it's a team of new and inactive players, the village needs very little help to win. Playing wolf is hard!

Pushes again the theory of newbie wolves, and suggests a salern lynch will give us data, yet still keeps the vote fixed on Qg which I think is a weak one

Selrahc Wrote:Agree.

This is again another push for a name reveal.




So in summary, all I seem to see is pushes for everybody to reveal everything, combined with weak fixed votes. I don't know if I am doing these reviews with scum tainted glasses, but this all seems off to me.

Still very happy with Sareln swinging right now, but to give people choices while I go through todays contributions from him, I will switch to Selrahc
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Rereading the actual lynch vote statements of Pindicator and Merovech, I realize now that I got the reasoning confused. Merovech moved to "pressure" Bigger from theStick with 10 minutes left on the clock. Pindicator jumped on Merovech stating "it was probably too late".

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Here's what I don't get though. Pindicator implies that he thinks Merovech is a wolf for switching from theStick to Bigger as he votes for him. However, that only works if theStick is also a wolf, else why would Merovech have any reason to change his vote so late in the day but in an attempt to save theStick. Why not (as Merovech) stay put and possibly nab a village watcher at low risk (Merovich made his theStick vote just before the 24 hour mark of the day). Therefore Merovech shouldn't be a wolf unless theStick is also a wolf. That means that the correct play for a villager Pindicator is to stay put and ensure theStick is lynched, and then followup into Merovech on the next day. But instead Pindicator launches a last minute attempt at Merovech effectively bringing the lynch within nervous villager range - which I'm inclined to think Merovech was at this point.

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After all that, I vote Pindicator.
Blog | EitB | PF2 | PBEM 37 | PBEM 45G | RBDG1
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Phone.
Last two posts by Sareln I like, good summary of what happened and I thought a good analysis of what mafia would do at the collapse of the Mattwagon.

Moving to a pc, will post then.
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Sareln Wrote:Pindicator jumped on Merovech stating "it was probably too late".

There's a broader context here too. Two games ago pindicator specifically made a WTF last-minute switch to avoid getting killed by the wolves, which worked (I think it was the night you and Zak died together.) He did something similar last game which made me argue that we should eat him. And his Merovech vote fits a similar pattern.

I guess it's stupid to have my vote on someone I'm hunting scum with.

Ichabod
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Injera Wrote:There's a broader context here too. Two games ago pindicator specifically made a WTF last-minute switch to avoid getting killed by the wolves, which worked (I think it was the night you and Zak died together.) He did something similar last game which made me argue that we should eat him. And his Merovech vote fits a similar pattern.

I guess it's stupid to have my vote on someone I'm hunting scum with.

Ichabod

Sorry if you agree with all the above why are you not voting Pindicator?
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Have a count before I turn in for the night.

I have done 2 counts.

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Previous Official Count:
BRickAstley Wrote:Official Lynch Vote Count

Sareln - 8 - Injera, tasunke, Merovech, Molach, Jkaen, Mattimeo, Bigger, Arromir
Catwalk - 3 - Lewwyn, Sareln, Ichabod
Merovech - 2 - Serdoa, Catwalk
uberfish - 2 - Azza, Waterbat
Selrahc - 2 - novice, Gaspar
Twinkletoes89 - 2 - Pindicator, uberfish
Mattimeo - 1 - Twinkletoes89
Qgqqqqq - 1 - Selrahc
Waterbat - 1 - Meiz
Pindicator - 1 - Rowain

Players not voting: Qgqqqqq

Official Mayor Vote Count

novice - 12 - Catwalk, Merovech, novice, Rowain, Pindicator, Injera, Jkaen, Molach, Qgqqqqq, Meiz, Mattimeo, Bigger
Serdoa - 3 - tasunke, Twinkletoes89, Serdoa
Lewwyn - 1 - Sareln

Players not voting: Arromir, Azza, Gaspar, Ichabod, Lewwyn, Selrahc, uberfish, Waterbat
Changes:
Lynch:
  • 748 - Lewwyn votes for Ichabod from Catwalk
  • 753 - Qgqqqqq votes for Selrahc from Not Voting
  • 757 - Serdoa votes for Ichabod from Merovech
  • 768 - Azza votes for Catwalk from Uberfish
  • 771 - JKaen votes for Selrahc from Sareln
  • 772 - Sareln votes for Pindicator from Catwalk
  • 774 - Injera votes for Ichabod from Sareln
Mayor:
  • 753 - Qgqqqqq votes for Lewwyn

Unofficial Lynch Vote:

(06) Sareln - tasunke, Merovech, Molach, Mattimeo, Bigger, Arromir
(04) Selrahc - novice, Gaspar, Qgqqqqq, JKaen
(03) Ichabod - Lewwyn, Serdoa, Injera
(02) Twinkletoes89 - Pindicator, uberfish
(02) Catwalk - Ichabod, Azza
(02) Pindicator - Rowain, Sareln
(01) Merovech - Catwalk
(01) uberfish - Waterbat
(01) Mattimeo - Twinkletoes89
(01) Qgqqqqq - Selrahc
(01) Waterbat - Meiz

Players not voting:

Unofficial Mayor Vote:

(11) novice - Catwalk, Merovech, novice, Rowain, Pindicator, Injera, Jkaen, Molach, Meiz, Mattimeo, Bigger
(03) Serdoa - tasunke, Twinkletoes89, Serdoa
(02) Lewwyn - Sareln, Qgqqqqq

Players not voting: Arromir, Azza, Gaspar, Ichabod, Lewwyn, Selrahc, uberfish, Waterbat
Blog | EitB | PF2 | PBEM 37 | PBEM 45G | RBDG1
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Sareln Wrote:Here's what I don't get though. Pindicator implies that he thinks Merovech is a wolf for switching from theStick to Bigger as he votes for him. However, that only works if theStick is also a wolf, else why would Merovech have any reason to change his vote so late in the day but in an attempt to save theStick. Why not (as Merovech) stay put and possibly nab a village watcher at low risk (Merovich made his theStick vote just before the 24 hour mark of the day). Therefore Merovech shouldn't be a wolf unless theStick is also a wolf. That means that the correct play for a villager Pindicator is to stay put and ensure theStick is lynched, and then followup into Merovech on the next day. But instead Pindicator launches a last minute attempt at Merovech effectively bringing the lynch within nervous villager range - which I'm inclined to think Merovech was at this point.

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After all that, I vote Pindicator.

Sareln

Pindicator
I have to run.
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I like Sareln doing a thorough analysis which doesn't lead to him jumping on someone easy to save himself. Conversely, I don't like Azza voting me reasoning that I'm easy to lynch. There are still 14 hours left, you're not exactly in a hurry.

I'll piggy back novice, as I still trust his judgement and alignment: pindicator
I don't want Sareln for mayor, but if the idea is to get a better chance of him not hanging I can back that.
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Jkaen Wrote:Sorry if you agree with all the above why are you not voting Pindicator?

Because I don't know what to make of it. pindicator has used implausibly late switches the last two games for different reasons. There's something here, I don't know if it's scummy though. He was village both times before.
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novice, why Sareln for mayor? Are you just trying to signal that he's village?
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