September 19th, 2012, 07:53
Posts: 7,916
Threads: 158
Joined: Jan 2012
Just woke up, sheesh y'all really like posting a lot while I sleep. I skimmed through now and will tally votes shortly.
September 19th, 2012, 07:54
Posts: 6,457
Threads: 134
Joined: Aug 2004
Twinkletoes89 Wrote:NO HE ISN'T!!!!! Sure he is. He was vocal in having thestick lynched and he was hit with a posting restriction. Faking the posting restriction either requires Mattimeo to be lying about his ability (meaning both Mattimeo and novice are wolves) or novice gambling on not being protected by Mattimeo. I don't think novice would overlook this risk, and I don't think he's the gambling type. Especially for this little gain. So yes, I do think I have evidence to give him mostly confirmed townie status. I specifically stated earlier that it's not 100% and that he can certainly be accused later if we get reason to do so. I don't think it's at all impossible that he bussed thestick, just not likely. I also don't think it's impossible for both Mattimeo and novice to be wolves, but even more unlikely. That's going pretty deep into  gambits.
Molach, still another 8h to go. I wouldn't be too worried about the vote split, although a tally would indeed be nice. I'm going to put a vote on Azza in order to underline my earlier accusation, don't want it falling through the cracks.
September 19th, 2012, 07:57
Posts: 5,157
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2011
Sarelns count #776
Sareln Wrote:Unofficial Lynch Vote:
(06) Sareln - tasunke, Merovech, Molach, Mattimeo, Bigger, Arromir
(04) Selrahc - novice, Gaspar, Qgqqqqq, JKaen
(03) Ichabod - Lewwyn, Serdoa, Injera
(02) Twinkletoes89 - Pindicator, uberfish
(02) Catwalk - Ichabod, Azza
(02) Pindicator - Rowain, Sareln
(01) Merovech - Catwalk
(01) uberfish - Waterbat
(01) Mattimeo - Twinkletoes89
(01) Qgqqqqq - Selrahc
(01) Waterbat - Meiz
Novice votes Pind
Catwalk votes Pind
Waterbat votes pind
Qg votes catwalk
Molach votes TT
TT votes uber
Azza votes uber
Serdoa votes uber
Bigger votes uber
Tansuke votes uber
Waterbat votes uber
Novice votes pind
Qg votes Selrahc
Novice votes Selrahc
New tally
(06) uberfish - Twinkletoes89, Azza, Serdoa, Bigger, tasunke, Waterbat
(04) Selrahc - Gaspar, JKaen, novice, Qgqqqqq
(03) Sareln - Merovech, Mattimeo, Arromir
(03) Twinkletoes89 - Pindicator, uberfish, Molach
(03) Pindicator - Rowain, Sareln, Catwalk
(02) Ichabod - Lewwyn, Injera
(01) Catwalk - Ichabod
(01) Qgqqqqq - Selrahc
(01) Waterbat - Meiz
September 19th, 2012, 07:59
Posts: 5,157
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2011
Rowain Wrote:Sareln did not move from thestick to Bigger. He was on Mattimeo and moved from Matt to Bigger. So why are you mixing facts here.
Because I misremembered, I stand corrected
Quote:No a few minutes before lynch you do not switch from someone you are so sure he is a wolf to a non-vote. This has nothing todo with thesticks guilt or not. /quote]
Was Pind so sure?
[quote]Nobody else has the pattern of pindicator. Thats why he gets heat. And I do begin to wonder why you are so much interested to make it look like pindicators move was alright.
To recap: He votes Mattimeo -> he unvotes -> he jumps on the thestick when it looks like a forgone decision -> he leaves thestick when a small chance exists that Bigger might hang.
Because it seems like a sudden huge bandwagon with not that much evidence, and quite frankly I wasn't sold on it, and somebody has to play devils advocate on these things
September 19th, 2012, 08:07
Posts: 6,630
Threads: 47
Joined: Apr 2010
Catwalk Wrote:Sure he is. He was vocal in having thestick lynched and he was hit with a posting restriction. Faking the posting restriction either requires Mattimeo to be lying about his ability (meaning both Mattimeo and novice are wolves) or novice gambling on not being protected by Mattimeo. I don't think novice would overlook this risk, and I don't think he's the gambling type. Especially for this little gain. So yes, I do think I have evidence to give him mostly confirmed townie status. I specifically stated earlier that it's not 100% and that he can certainly be accused later if we get reason to do so. I don't think it's at all impossible that he bussed thestick, just not likely. I also don't think it's impossible for both Mattimeo and novice to be wolves, but even more unlikely. That's going pretty deep into gambits.
No he is not. The posting restriction could be something that happened due to a night-action he did. That he has a posting restriction does not make him automatically village. Don't take things as granted just because you can't come up with better explanations.
September 19th, 2012, 08:10
Posts: 8,244
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Joined: Jun 2004
Jkaen Wrote:Because it seems like a sudden huge bandwagon with not that much evidence, and quite frankly I wasn't sold on it, and somebody has to play devils advocate on these things
Huge Bandwaggon?? If I take your listing he had 5 votes at the most which were still less than Sareln had at that time.
But the strange thing is when Molach moves from Sareln Pindi is tied in the lead and suddenly a huge uberfish-BW forms and rushes uberfish up.
September 19th, 2012, 08:12
Posts: 6,457
Threads: 134
Joined: Aug 2004
Sure, there are plenty alternate explanations. But better ones? No. The posting restriction combined with the cloaker and hanging thestick makes novice = townie by far the best explanation. We can easily revisit the novice issue later, I'm not saying he's confirmed townie. I have a feeling scum are using me as a convenient distraction to generate a lot of noise today.
September 19th, 2012, 08:13
Posts: 5,157
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2011
Rowain you ignore momentum, some of those Sareln votes were always going to drift off, Pind got those votes very quickly to shoot him up, and could quite easily when I started to defend him (i assume it was around then, cant be bothered to look) have shot on further.
As for the uber wagon, you will note I am not that big a fan of that either, as other than 'general feel of posts' nobody can really sell me on the difference between the uber case and the sareln case
September 19th, 2012, 08:19
Posts: 13,563
Threads: 49
Joined: Oct 2009
novice Wrote:suspects
thestick
Ichabod
Pindicator
Selrahc
Injera
Rowain
Twinkletoes89
Waterbat
Merovech
Bigger
Arromir
Sareln
uberfish
Lewwyn
Gaspar
Catwalk
Azza
Qgqqqqq
tasunke
Meiz
Mattimeo
Molach
Serdoa
Jkaen
zakalwe
novice
Molach Wrote:work/dinner/sleepify kids then check in. Should be a couple hours before lynch.
I have to run.
September 19th, 2012, 08:20
Posts: 13,563
Threads: 49
Joined: Oct 2009
Lewwyn Wrote:Zak this ones for you.
Ichabod...
No I do not agree with this. Zak's main case against you was NOT simply the vote or the coincidental timing. It has to do entirely with the tone of the post and the presentation of the post. As Zak says:
I have bolded the parts I think are relevant here. You've stated that Zak's case was based on the timing of the post hedging suspicion on thestick but then voting for Gaspar. I've highlighted parts of Zak's accusation that show a read based on how he thinks wolf Ichabod will play. He mentions the nonsensical argument against Gaspar, subservience in the ensuing dialogue and the sneaked in backhanded compliments or jabs. I'm not saying that Zak didn't look at the timing as suspicious, but that the argument he makes leads away from the voting itself and delves into tone and personality. That is an argument I can get behind that isn't entirely based on a situational thing.
So I think you've done a good job at shaving away the more damning pieces of Zak's argument while addressing the things you can explain.
Also, since it concerns me:
Are you trying to say that I'm guilty by saying your guilty of the "same thing" you are accused of? Or are you trying to say you're innocent and I'm innocent? I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve. To me it sounds like you are connecting the two of us to both A) defend yourself and then B) set me up to go down too... after you turn up wolf, of course.
The problem is we didn't do the same things. I gave reasons for my vote on thestick and then actually voted for him. It is not my fault that 30-40 minutes later Catwalk posts this:
And I go WTF and vote for him. I still can't read that without getting scummy vibes. You say and I'll repeat:
I did vote thestick, but noone else voted thestick during the time that I was on him before I switched to Catwalk. There was no change in heat! Then you say maybe this maybe that. But isn't it clear what I did? I found someone I suspected more? And It's definately not the same thing Zak has accused you of. He accused you of having a wolfish tone and mannerisms within your posts. And this post you've done both diminishing Zak's argument and then trying to tie me to you is even scummier in my opinion than the post that Zak initially called you on.
Just FYI I haven't had a chance to get much further in the thread past this because I was writing this up so I will need to read other responses to Ichabod and any more of his posts yet. But at this point I'm happy to endorse lynching Ichabod.
Ichabod
novice
I have to run.
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