WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Lewwyn]

So Ichabod's PR... Pretty much this entire game I've been thinking along the lines of PRs being distractions. I believe earlier I said we should just ignore them. They are a wolf construct, designed to confuse.

I'll admit when I saw Ichabod's PR it gave me pause. I don't think there were a lot of people calling for Ichabod's head. I think I'm the only one who was actively pushing Ichabod as a suspect. But you know, I have to stand by what I said earlier. We can't allow the PR to sway opinion more. Or at least I won't allow it sway my own opinion. My belief in novice's innocence and Meiz's village lean have nothing to do with their PRs, so my belief in Ichabod's guilt can't be based on this PR either. And it isn't, Ichabod

[Jkaen]

One thought I had was about the post restrictor. He must have felt confident that he wasn't under suspicion to hold off on using his PR ability. Obviously it has a limited number of uses on it (otherwise why not use it every night?) - so why hold off on using it so long?

My guess is the PR scum is someone who felt confident enough that they didn't have suspicion that they were able to hold on to the charges. At this point they could either 1) have enough charges to get through mislynches or 2) are starting to get suspicion and/or judged that they can't afford to wait any longer.

So I suspect the PR person is someone who wasn't suspected day 2 or day 3, probably not day 1 either.

Or Ichabod's PR is an invention.

Why would Ichabod's PR be an invention, but yours and Meiz's be true?

[Jkaen]

Ok, I need to catch up on the tons I have missed, but having read around the lynch times and kill times, I think I will go Pindicator for now.

Just for clarity, all the people who have at one point claimed roles are now all dead correct?

[novice]

Why would Ichabod's PR be an invention, but yours and Meiz's be true?

Because the wolves used their two post restricions ASAP and are now faking one to give Ichabod some village cred?

At any rate, it's just a theory. I'm still leaning villager on Ichabod.

Ok, I need to catch up on the tons I have missed, but having read around the lynch times and kill times, I think I will go Pindicator for now.

Just for clarity, all the people who have at one point claimed roles are now all dead correct?

TT has claimed vengeful. (Gets a vig kill upon his lynch).

[novice]

Unofficial Vote Count

Ichabod - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Selrahc, Lewwyn
Catwalk - 1 - Ichabod
Pindicator - 1 - Jkaen

Players not voting: Catwalk, Gaspar, Meiz, novice, Pindicator, Waterbat

[novice]

Unofficial Vote Count

Ichabod - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Selrahc, Lewwyn
Catwalk - 1 - Ichabod
Pindicator - 1 - Jkaen

Players not voting: Catwalk, Gaspar, Meiz, novice, Pindicator, Waterbat

This is a pretty terrible tally IMO. Although I think Ichabod's vote on Catwalk is not "real".

I've kind of lost what steam was left in me for this game, but let's go through the players, favouring Occam's wherever applicable:

Catwalk - Feels villager, I have no scum baseline though. I feel that if he's scum it's as Lewwyn's scum buddy.
Gaspar - The unkind description here is "superficially useful, essentially useless".
Ichabod - Swings from strong village tells to chaotic scummy behaviour.
Jkaen - Bad votes, terrible uptime, villagery feel to his posts though. But he's a convincing wolf.
Lewwyn - Lewwyn is Lewwyn, hasn't rocked my boat yet and he's capable of this game as a wolf, I would think.
Meiz - Nullish read, seems villagery enough to me.
novice - Villager.
Pindicator - Phenomenal heat capacity. Comes across like an earnest villager to me.
Selrahc - Chronically offline, took a long time to find the temp forum. Villagery posts when he posts but a little on the meta-y side.
Twinkletoes89 - Paranoid to a T. Too good to be an act.
Waterbat - He still feels off.

Then there is the meta argument that people are reluctant to mention:
I doubt Selrahc and Jkaen would hold the game ransom by not checking in in the temp forum as wolves. When this had become apparent Waterbat suggested a draw.

Lewwyn's justification for voting Ichabod just now seems perfectly reasonable but somehow still feels off. He also pursued Pindicator earlier for being "just a survivor" when I do feel he's likely villager.

Ok. Let's try a ranking, villager to wolf.
novice - Villager.
Twinkletoes89 - Paranoid to a T. Too good to be an act.
Pindicator - Phenomenal heat capacity. Comes across like an earnest villager to me.
Catwalk - Feels villager, I have no scum baseline though. I feel that if he's scum it's as Lewwyn's scum buddy.
Selrahc - Chronically offline, took a long time to find the temp forum. Villagery posts when he posts but a little on the meta-y side.
Jkaen - Bad votes, terrible uptime, villagery feel to his posts though. But he's a convincing wolf.
Meiz - Nullish read, seems villagery enough to me.
Ichabod - Swings from strong village tells to chaotic scummy behaviour.
Waterbat - He still feels off.
Lewwyn - Lewwyn is Lewwyn, hasn't rocked my boat yet and he's capable of this game as a wolf, I would think.
Gaspar - The unkind description here is "superficially useful, essentially useless".

Gaspar has been quick to credit me and Zak for village progress, trying to stay on my good side? And he has been defending villagers more than attacking scum.

Gaspar, then.

[Twinkletoes89]

I could get on a Gaspar lynch later on I think, as I do agree with what you say about his play.

But I think there are only two explanations for Ichabod's post-restriction.

1) He's villager and the mafia post-restrictor is completely stupid using it.

2) He's mafia and trying to get lynched to make us think that Meiz & Novice are both mafia too making up the same thing.

Now, whichever result comes up, the village will benefit.

1) We know a post-restrictor more than likely exists, helps to get rid of my paranoia over Novice & Meiz

2) We get a mafia and we move on from there. Now I've had a few days out of the 'bunker' of the game, I don't think my paranoia will spike to its high levels just because of this result, as I don't think the mafia are stupid enough to try the same trick twice and they just need a couple more mislynches to get through.

Thus I think the village really should vote for Ichabod

[novice]

Now, whichever result comes up, the village will benefit.

1) We know a post-restrictor more than likely exists, helps to get rid of my paranoia over Novice & Meiz

I don't think this will help much. With three players claiming to have been post restricted it's already pretty obvious that there is a post restrictor. Unlikely that all three of use are wolves.

[Meiz]

Shortly, I still like waterbat for lynch. Everyone kind of expect wolves using pr's to one wolf at least. I would not count out on them using these for villagers only. It would never paint them as villagers, there is always the doubt. I agree meta makes both jkaen and selrahc lean villager.

[Catwalk]

Shortly, I still like waterbat for lynch. Everyone kind of expect wolves using pr's to one wolf at least. I would not count out on them using these for villagers only. It would never paint them as villagers, there is always the doubt. I agree meta makes both jkaen and selrahc lean villager.

Please elaborate, that didn't make any sense to me.