WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[pindicator]

In all fairness, can you honestly put yourself in a plausible scenario where I'm scum unless Meiz is as well? If I'm mafia, I hang out on Pindicator and let you cast the deciding vote where I have a 50/50 chance of you hitting a villager as opposed to casting the killing vote on scum. If Meiz is village and he hung today, scum are 1 mislynch away where they only need to con one villager into voting wrong.

Anyway, not going to defend myself anymore but I find it annoying that when I vote poorly I hear it about voting poorly and when I vote correctly I somehow still hear it about voting correctly.

Welcome to my first 10 days...

I think the scum have to come from Jkaen, Waterbat, Catwalk at this point unless Meiz is scum in which case we learned nothing. If we had another mislynch left I could talk myself into a Meiz test but at this point all the circumstantial evidence points to Meiz' innocence. Given I've had village reads on both Catwalk and Waterbat all game, and a basically null read on Jkaen, I guess I'm basically an idiot. Still, I'd like to be a winning idiot - so let's take advantage of the evidence in front of us.

I think it has to be jkaen next. He just has zero good things going for him. He hasn't been a contributor since... I can't even remember. His voting record is appalling. I mean, my voting record sucks, but his makes me look as angel-fresh as novice. But more than that, there is just zero arguments for his candidates lately. I think he's scum that's just lost interest. Lewwyn also is heavily attacking Gaspar & I both for suggesting jkaen
link: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300802

[Gaspar]

I think it has to be jkaen next. He just has zero good things going for him. He hasn't been a contributor since... I can't even remember. His voting record is appalling. I mean, my voting record sucks, but his makes me look as angel-fresh as novice. But more than that, there is just zero arguments for his candidates lately. I think he's scum that's just lost interest. Lewwyn also is heavily attacking Gaspar & I both for suggesting jkaen
link: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300802

I'm definitely warming up on Jkaen. I think what's amazing is how he's managed to only be a part of one lynch all game. I'd think that was overrated, but that's basically the game Lewwyn played. I mean Lewwyn is always in China, but I don't remember him having all his votes go to waste to this extent in any previous game. Jkaen's always busy, but his village game usually has some prominent moments, even if sometimes they're wtf moments.

[Meiz]

My first imptession is that Lewwyn seemed to have given up, did not fight back at all or even vote a meaningful target. Which is probably a sign he did not believe wolves could win this -> another wolf has had a lot of suspicion and he doesn't see them lasting long term. Could relate to the complaining to GM part.

[Jkaen]

Why does zero arguments for my candidate make more sense as a wolf that has lost interest than a villager that has lost interest? Surely as a wolf I would be more engaged into the game?

Also if you look through even the older WW games, its pretty rare that I am around during lynch times, so me not being around in this game for them in nothing different.

Lets face it due to me missing over a week of time on this board, anything I may or may not have said in the early game (when I was one of the heaviest posters and commenters) has been forgotten and I am now a hugely easy mislynch for people to push

[novice]

My first imptession is that Lewwyn seemed to have given up, did not fight back at all or even vote a meaningful target. Which is probably a sign he did not believe wolves could win this -> another wolf has had a lot of suspicion and he doesn't see them lasting long term. Could relate to the complaining to GM part.

He was probably as fed up as the rest of us, and he could have been busy. I don't think voting for Gaspar was meaningless, Gaspar is very lynchable.

[novice]

Interesting comment regarding the complaining to the GM.

I find the recent ideas that we only have 1 wolf very suspicious.

That went from "interesting" to "very suspicious" awfully quickly.

[Meiz]

He was probably as fed up as the rest of us, and he could have been busy. I don't think voting for Gaspar was meaningless, Gaspar is very lynchable.

I mean he has wanted to play wolf for ages and finally gets it. And then he seems to fold down and just makes a no-comment vote on Gaspar, instead of building a case to lynch him. Could be busy, but I think the other explanation could still be he doesn't see wolves winning this = there is no deep cover wolf left.

[Twinkletoes89]

Good job guys.

My one thought from my first read of what I've missed is, did we have two mafia on the block again? With a single mislynch required, why did Lewwyn not hop on Meiz?

I also think Lewwyn is too canny a player to use all four of his charges on villagers. I don't think he would want to clear up to 4 villagers on the advent of his death.

Thus I think Meiz is still a good target to go for, and Pindicator can't be ruled out - but the push on him seems like more evidence of the 'patsy' theory.

[waterbat]

@novice. First post made right after. Second post after some thought.

It's difficult at this stage of the game as comments can be interpreted as encouraging us not to think anymore. I.e. combine the there is only 1 wolf (so llewyn voters are clear) with it can't be a deep cover wolf (so tt and catwalk are clear) and we get what? Lynch me and jkaen and village has it won? Too easy.

Otoh, this is what we've been looking for all game: a clear path to victory. So ... It's difficult.

[novice]

Why do the last 24 hours read bad?

Well, let's inspect day ten. (Day TEN!? Jesus.)
Let me be clear that I don't think this means you HAVE to be scum, I'm just saying that day ten looks really bad.

The first 24 hours you didn't check in at all. I guess you were happy with this tally:

Official Lynch Vote Count

Meiz - 3 - novice, Twinkletoes89, Pindicator
Pindicator - 3 - Gaspar, Jkaen, Meiz
Gaspar - 1 - Lewwyn

Players not voting: Catwalk, Waterbat

27 Hours Remaining

Your first post on day ten:

the substitution of symbols is much more readable for me. the - character was too much of a break for my brain.

None of this arguments are coming through very true. I've gotten scummy reads before pindicator's post restriction.

Also... I think the "why would mafia-pindicator interrogate Ichabod and then kill him?" argument is invalid. If I read Ichabod's power correctly, isn't it entirely possible that he scored a correct protection yet again last night? His body armor was too deteriorated, so he took the hit for someone else. So it seems reasonable that the mafia indicated a kill toward the person that Ichabod protected, right?

oops wasnt clear in the middle of that post - none of the arguments are ringing true for me right now. I started the day with all intents to vote pindicator. not so sure now.

Basically you're arguing that Pindicator is a fine lynch, while simultaneously hedging your bets.

Next:

gaspar,

once again - you are in my head - i'd order my list a little differently... and add you to it I think we've

pindicator
meiz
jkaen
lewwyn
gaspar

i really don't want to get noviced again this game , but if he's scum, we've lost already

as i might be absent - as this is a wednesday deadline again, i will vote pindicator

i do hope to make it back as much as possible via phone though.

Voting Pindicator after all, and putting Lewwyn and Gaspar in 4th and 5th. In my opinion Lewwyn and Gaspar were the natural lynches yesterday for players with no particular reads or convictions telling them otherwise. So I found it odd that you had three players ranking above them. Also you're tying yourself to Gaspar which I don't like.

Next.

im really tossed up on lewwyn. Not sure my list requires you vote to mislynch me. i put that list out as a gun-to-my-head list - similar to Gaspar - It doesn't even need that much analysis. In any event, im big ??s for all 5, but if forced to order, that's how id put them.

i also think my saying that i would be away has signalled a green light to push for my lynch today. If that comes true, sorry for that, I should have kept quiet about it.
Meiz

Yeah right, you're being set up. :rolleyes:

(interlude looking for Pindicator's post that you're subscribed to)
Then:

Waterbat and Lewwyn would be my top picks for wolves. For some reason it's incredibly hard to get people to vote waterbat and I don't understand why. His latest vote against me didn't make me feel any better regarding him.

its incredibly hard , because none of the mafia left alive would dare put a vote against their mafia alpha leader. So to lynch me, you need villagers. ???

seriously though - its your votes against me that don't make me feel any better about you. I think we are at an impasse and I would also not mind persuing other targets.

I read desperation in pindicators posts -- but i don't have a read on it either way.

i have a few minutes at lunch to re-read - will be doing that now.

Deflect with a "joke", then appeal for a joint third target. And again waffling on Pindicator.

i found it odd that jkaen just sent in a single vote with no accompanying text at all. noone else commented on that. I was surprised that he showed up on voting tally and had to go back through to find it.

@pindicator - i didnt feel like a gun was to my head - i was putting my list out there if it was a gun to my head list. That was the weird thing - i was just pondering that as I was catching up on the thread - "How would I rank them if I absolutely had to chose now?" and then read Gaspar's post where he did just that.

Gaspar - are you set on today's candidate? I've been going back and forth on pindicator this whole game... but if there was a candidate villager who was going to be set up today - i think it would be him. later push on me could be to get 2 villagers up there and make sure a mislynch happens.

Also other votes (lewwyn) could easily be distancing - not discounting the fact that he could be in that group.

First paragraph above: Jkaen is odd for doing that? But not all the others who do the same, like Lewwyn, for example? Second paragraph: I don't buy it. You saw Gaspar pushing a favourable agenda and buddied up to it. Paragraph three and four I don't really understand.

i did:
cat > 3565.txt
sed 'y/@310*\//aeiouy/' < 3565.txt

but i think it worked out mostly ok.

I didnt have a gun to my head - i said like gaspar - IF i had a gun to my head , here's what i would spit out at the time. What purpose would I have for putting it out there as mafia? can't think of one.

Helpful translation of Pindicator's post. And you're not really trying very hard to think of reasons why Mafia would put out a suspect list.

so why did the wolves kill ichabod and not novice if they knew ichabod was out of shots?

i thought when ichabod was "out of shots" he would still get to protect one more time - just that he would die instead of the target - i.e. his vest was too damaged to protect him as he jumped in front of the bullet. so... i think its equally likely that the wolves killed the target ichabod protected on the final night as it is that they killed ichabod directly.

Null post, you seem in tune with wolf thinking though.

was i breaking rules to use my substitution pattern on your post and then quote the results? i dont want to set a precedent if players think that it was wrong, please say so.

Gosh village, I hope I'm not being TOO helpful?

UnOfficial Lynch Vote Count

Meiz - 3 - Twinkletoes89, Waterbat, Catwalk
Lewwyn - 3 - novice, Pindicator Meiz
Pindicator - 2 - Gaspar, Jkaen
Gaspar - 1 - Lewwyn

1 Hours Remaining

also - i know that pindicator votes with novice when he's wrong and against him when he's right. This could be a bad sign

Nice try to seed doubts there. Btw pindicator voted against me when I pursued you on day eight, so what does this tell us? I guess the pattern you're mentioning was more noticeable to you than the rest of us?

back.

don't feel good about this at all TT and Catwalk have had pretty good cred - im voting with them Meiz ... what's that mean for Lewwyn? lynchbait?

'Nuff said.

oh crap - forum still 4 minutes fast too...

GL us.

you are killing me brick.

mind blown!

great job guys.

i cant easily reconcile what just happened.

How can i not give cred to all the llewwyn voters? I just don't see that as yet another bus attempt unless Meiz was also a good target for us.
So Meiz is up for lynch, tries to start a bit of a waterbat push to free himself, the switch to Lewwyn pulls novice off of me - mafia see that there is no hope - its going to be Lewwyn or Meiz and jump to Llewyn.

The simpler explanation is that all lewwyn voters are village, of course, and then what? we can lynch Jkaen , Catwalk, Twinkletoes for the win? Of course, one of them is probably innocent and that would mean we can't be wrong. given 2 mafia remaining, we have 2 mislynch available now though - so even if you detour to nail me to a cross, we might win. This seems toooooo easy.

congrats Lewwyn for finally rolling scum !

Spin, spin, spin.