WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[pindicator]

@Meiz

Agree with your points on Catwalk. And you looking to clear Catwalk when you know I was proposing you & Catwalk as a my fallback suspects makes me feel really good about you being village. That's why I'm feeling good - you have a lot of good village moments. Both days when you were on the block you were still hunting scum, instead of trying to preserve yourself. Your arguments have looked village to me. And you were right there with novice & i when we jumped on Lewwyn. So I'm feeling good that you are village, and I hope I can convince you why I think jkaen is scum:

First of all, I don't know if I can agree with the meta argument clearing jkaen because Selrahc argued against that argument himself, and we know he was village:

Here's Lewwyn first putting forward the meta argument:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300575

And Selrahc responds the very next post:

Here is what I don't like about the meta argument exculpating me:

I wasn't holding the game to ransom, until I was the last player to arrive. I think it would be perfectly fine for the wolves to game the meta in that way. The game can't really continue until all the villagers have turned up, so make it so that one of the wolves turns up in the last wave. Calibrate it off the villager arrivals.

I don't think it would be a nasty or underhanded thing for the wolves to do. They would in fact be protecting the game from meta arguments. Anybody who has taken me off their suspect list for that reason, bear in mind that I think this. I'd like to not be a suspect for rather less shaky meta reasons.

So in my mind, I haven't even looked at the meta, especially since one of the villagers it was cleared was arguing that we should not look at the meta for reasons that the wolves could game it.

Now you do make a good point about jkaen questioning mattimeo about his role. So I need to look at that.

But this is my big scum mark against jkaen:

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid294983

This is day 4 when jkaen starts thinking that maybe there are 2 wolves on the block. But he never votes mattimeo! Instead he uses this "insight" to attack the people that were on the mattimeo bandwagon.

[pindicator]

This is day 4 when jkaen starts thinking that maybe there are 2 wolves on the block on day 1. But he never votes mattimeo! Not on the initial push, not on the late push. Instead he uses this "insight" to attack the people that were on the mattimeo bandwagon.

Clarified my thoughts a bit more there.

[pindicator]

I also don't think jkaen has been as absent as much as he appears to have been. He was following along yesterday enough to question Novice for switching his vote off of Meiz and onto Waterbat.

Novice what pulled you away from Meiz and onto his target?

My self-doubt and Waterbat's suspect list.

But isn't that list the same as Gaspars essentially (or is that your point)?

And that's all he posted after voting for me yesterday. Aside from a no-explanation vote on me, those were his only posts all day. So why post that? Why isn't he trying to push for a lynch on me? At first I thought that was telling of a jkaen/meiz pair because jkaen's post was looking to clear Meiz (a la slowcheetah trying to clear injera in WW14). But his follow-up shows he is more interested in waterbat.

Which brings me back to waterbat & jkaen as our wolf pair. I can be talked out of the order, but I really think we need to go for one of them today.

[Twinkletoes89]

I'd take waterbat first - the real lack of anyone being pushed as an alternative for jkaen so far today makes me feel uneasy. Plus I think waterbat is more dangerous alive than jkaen right now

[pindicator]

I'd take waterbat first - the real lack of anyone being pushed as an alternative for jkaen so far today makes me feel uneasy. Plus I think waterbat is more dangerous alive than jkaen right now

And I'm worried that you guys won't follow through on jkaen if i get night killed tonight

As for no alternatives, my guess is that waterbat is bussing the inactive jkaen and trying to throw dirt on Catwalk as a last grasp for victory. That could very well be me talking with confirmation bias, though, so let's at least make sure everybody is comfortable with waterbat & jkaen as being the most suspicious. But it sounds like most people are.

Okay, let's do waterbat

[Catwalk]

TT, that's exactly the argument I used to defend thestick fiercely on day 1. Except I was doing it with hours left and the wagon building steadily and easily. We still have 24h left here. Waterbat is very much being pushed as an alternative to Jkaen, almost everybody agrees those 2 are the most suspicious.

[Gaspar]

I don't have time til tomorrow but I really prefer Jkaen to Waterbat atm.

[pindicator]

For some reason i was thinking there were only three people on jkaen when i voted off. But we have four for a majority: catwalk, waterbat, gaspar, and me.

Jkaen

Gaspar, can you still share your reasoning for pushing jkaen? Was it any different than my reasons to vote him?

[Twinkletoes89]

So you have a majority without me - a virtually confirmed villager.

So that must mean you think Jkaen and Meiz are the two mafia. Otherwise you have a mafia on mafia voter which is surely unrealistic right now.

[pindicator]

So you have a majority without me - a virtually confirmed villager.

So that must mean you think Jkaen and Meiz are the two mafia. Otherwise you have a mafia on mafia voter which is surely unrealistic right now.

No, not at all. And I'm not trying to minimize your contribution; I'm sorry if it came across like that.

Like I said earlier, I think jkaen @ waterbat are likely the last two scum. I've been more sure of jkaen, and maybe some of that comes from the fact I was on jkaen before I came around to waterbat, but I think he's the better lynch. Jkaen not posting to defend himself or address the points that I have brought up is making me feel better about that decision, too.

I also said earlier I think waterbat is trying to bus jkaen to gain credit, and throwing dirt on catwalk to try to get a mislynch tomorrow. I haven't seen good arguments out of him at all, just desperate ones.

And I would like to hear from Gaspar why he thinks Jkaen is the better lynch, because I am very close on the two. As I said before, I could be talked into switching to waterbat because I suspect them both. But if Gaspar has a good point as to why Jkaen needs to be the first lynch then I'll stay put.