WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Catwalk]

I want to believe pindicator's innocence, mainly on grounds of him pursuing Lewwyn and being pursued by him and also because I don't want to lose someone who believes in my innocence. But I keep having a nagging thought that a deep cover wolf can cost us the game. pindicator, can you provide a similar argument for yourself why it's highly unlikely you'd bus Lewwyn? Same for earlier town cred you may have accumulated.

Gaspar, Meiz, waterbat, what solid town cred for yourself do you have to point to? Sorry for being demanding, I'm not good at thread digging and I just don't have the time to look for everything necessary. I'd like to investigate all town cred claims and see which ones can reasonably be explained with bussing and which ones can't.

[waterbat]

Catwalk, I think it's too easy to come up with a scenario for each successful vote *could* be bussing. If you haven't the time, look at current events. If my interaction with TT doesn't scream village to you, something is wrong. I laid out a path for scum victory and they took a more impatient path. We can't be wrong again. They want to win now.

I spent a good portion on the night phase guessing at who would die.

TT - no chance as outlined above. I did not anticipate the 1-wolf frame job, but I should have, given that I railed again the jkaen-waterbat pairing and the 1-will theory earlier.

Catwalk - good chance as he's considered by most to be villager.

Pindicator / Gaspar. Certainly, one of these would die. The scum would want these guys off the case. But the impatient path, it makes a lot of sense to leave pindicator alive ( if village ). He's been pushing for me - scum want to win now. You could make same case for Gaspar, but he's been much more hedgy about it.

Me - no chance.

Meiz - wasn't sure. In other games he's been an early night target due to strength of play. What have we got from him this game?

-- the other reason I was hoping for a pindicator / Gaspar death was that it would clear up much for me. One of them ( at least ) must be wolf.

I now know that there were at least 1 scum vote on lewwyn. We thought the presence of scum votes there would only make sense if Meiz was also scum.

I didn't want to lay out my candidates too early - as my reasoning will certainly be assailed, but the last 2 wolves are Gaspar and Meiz. I guess that's why I was appealing to you pindicator, I had come to that conclusion after jkaen flipped. I was really hoping you'd die to cement it.

Gaspar.

And since I'm handing the game to you if you do happen to be scum, pindicator

[waterbat]

Second thoughts already about the mayor vote, but I suspect there is no way that this ends up tie. 2 wolf votes in play out of 5 and no need for future cover.

I'll be able to put serious thought into a 1-wolf scenario Tuesday at 21:01 GMT. Until then, it's bollocks. We have to be precise.

[waterbat]

- i convinced you

really now? Saving this for post game.

[waterbat]

Don't follow what you mean

Meaning he's going to do what he did - pop in, make a quick post, pop out, disappear again for however long. So voting him at the moment really serves no value. I'd rather vote someone who might spur some activity. I'm not remotely opposed to ending the day on Molach though, who clearly is just in full lurk mode this game.

what do you think about this post, pindicator?

I know its a minor one, but i've been reading backwards through the whole thread and this stuck out to me given my focus on gaspar now.

[Gaspar]

Only a minute here, but two quick things...

@pindicator: waiting to see what fleshes out before influencing proceedings myself.

@waterbat: so you're on me for hedging? Why would scum hedge in this scenario - there's two days left, by the time you flipped the game was over. Hell in a scenario where I'm scum and both you and Jkaen were innocent it makes a LOT more sense to kill you first and let Jkaen hang himself through inactivity the following day.

As it turns out however, I'm trying to get us a win and in that case Jkaen made the most sense yesterday. Even as I was wrong, I still trust the process there. Anyway, what I find most interesting there is the way you completely soft-pedal Meiz there. He's the one who has been on you most vociferously. But I guess its convenient to vote me first and him second since you only need to get me mislynched to win.

Waterbat

Gaspar

[waterbat]

Gaspar

There are 3 Qg voters from the Qg vs. Mattimeo day alive.

Me, Jkaen, Gaspar.

I think the idea that *everybody* voting Qg was a villager is unlikely. And I've found Gaspar more suspicious than JKaen.

Selrahc prescient in death.

[waterbat]

yes gaspar thank you for confirmation. As i looked over my post, i thought "so... who's going to come out an blast me for slipping Meiz in without much substance?"

But here's the thing: You could come out and make an argument that we should do Meiz first or that Meiz is the guilty one or DEFEND him even. But no. you attack me for it. In any event- i dont really care where your vote is. I knew I was going to be the mislynch target du jour - I just thought you'd use TT to do it.

[Meiz]

If my interaction with TT doesn't scream village to you, something is wrong. I laid out a path for scum victory and they took a more impatient path. We can't be wrong again. They want to win now.

TT - no chance as outlined above. I did not anticipate the 1-wolf frame job, but I should have, given that I railed again the jkaen-waterbat pairing and the 1-will theory earlier.

Might be fever playing tricks, but I did not understand what you mean here.

Also, what made you do a complete turnaround on Pind? You even vote him mayor, why not Catwalk? Why are you voting Gaspar over me atm?

@Catwalk, I'd say my clearest village moment is pushing and voting Matt already on mid-day, since I don't think he was a bus target for wolves.

Most confident in Catwalk being a villager.

[Meiz]

I mean you seem to buddy up Pind very heavily at the moment, even pointing questions on others guilt specifically for him. It's quite different tone from yesterday. Why not include catwalk in your questions, since you seem to think him villager as well?