WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Catwalk]

Waterbat, I think it's a good idea to compile all town cred claims to compare. For example:
- I pushed Mattimeo repeatedly for several days, poking at his explanations and helping to lynch him
- Meiz claims he did the same (will reread)
- Lewwyn pushed me to the point of hanging until Merovech imploded
- pindicator pushed Lewwyn heavily and helped hang him

It's easy to take these to be proof of innocence, so I'd like a collection of them to more easily be able to investigate them. Any bussing action that gives you deep cover is a good wolf move, I'm thinking pindicator in particular here. Not because I suspect him heavily, but because that action would make a hell of a lot of sense if he was scum. I'm not suspecting him for hanging Lewwyn (obviously), but I'm also reluctant to clear him for it. Likewise, I do appreciate his efforts in clearing me (and I think his arguments are sound), but that could also be a very good wolf play. In fact, it's interesting how everybody seems to be buddying up to me after I helped secure a mislynch yesterday. Some of you aren't sincere :P

I'm happy with Catwalk for mayor, just in case there's 4 of us tomorrow due to an alibity or someone is unable to make the deadline.

[Catwalk]

I'm suspicious of Gaspar. I will post my reasons in a few hours, just got summoned away for a lengthy massage. Not on the receiving end, though

[Gaspar]

You guys are crazy. I've never been mislynched in a game here and I don't intend to lose the game by being so. I'm not sure if that buddying comment came at me, Catwalk but I just said I thought you were the most likely lone wolf, that's hardly buddying.

I guess I'm today's patsy, hopefully the remaining villagers see that. Anyway, I'll have erratic access until late so I'll get back at you then.

[waterbat]

@meiz: I agree with you on catwalk. Actually almost went back and changed vote for mayor to him in my "second thoughts" post.

So... I became confident that one of pindicator or Gaspar HAS to be scum. I came to this some time ago, but kept waffling on who it should be. I kept fixating on the fact that it must be one of them. Your inclusion as the pair makes sense of the day when lewwyn was lynched.

So. My thought was that I have to throw my lot in against one of them and go conciliatory with the other.

You post though pointed out for me the obvious flaw - maybe Gaspar and pindicator are both partners.
The lewwyn bus could be planned well in advance. Notice he just made a one word vote post that day. All scum were doing was waiting for the novice. God, it makes you look guilty too, Meiz, but that could have been part of the plan. Give Both scum credit at the perfect time while also setting up another.

Also, it's become apparent to me that I must naturally play like scum. Given that every post Gaspar makes resonates with me is probably counter-indicative of his alignment.

[Catwalk]

No, the buddying up comment wasn't aimed at you. Here are the reasons I suspect you, note that I'm not locked in by any means nor have I done sufficient rereading yet.

Voting record
Day 1:
184
Gaspar half-heartedly defends thestick, suggesting he's mislynchable by making a Sareln reference.

Sits on an Injera vote, later rushes in past the deadline to add a vote on thestick.

Day 2:
Wolves are divided on Sareln (8 votes) and Ichabod (5 votes) with 7 on pindicator. Gaspar votes Ichabod. Fits with a pindicator/Gaspar wolf pair, no wolves on pindicator unless Meiz is wolf (I was on pindicator as well).

Day 3:
Gaspar starts out suspecting Rowain straight away, then sits back and lets others question him (me and novice it seems, pindicator was also on him). Later jumps in to say he has nothing to add but wants to give pindicator buddy points for his vote tracker. When he eventually returns to Rowain, he plays good cop with him:

That's why it looks like a scummy vote park rather than a village conviction. And if you were so convinced, why have you not made said case today instead of just getting annoyed? I can't speak for the others but what I'd like is some insight from you, in theory you are picking this up given your aggressive evidence gathering.

Later, he reinforces the belief that Lewwyn won't be any use until day 4 (possibly helping to give Lewwyn an alibi for mislynches):

Lewwyn, are you going to start being useful at some point or do we have to wait for day 4 for that this time because its a bigger game?

This sounds a little too accurate to me, considering we didn't know Mattimeo's alignment yet:

If mafia loses members on days 1 and 2 that will feel like they're losing. So if one of the 3 main candidates yesterday flips scum, I think we can probably do some retrospective analysis which will give us some very good info. Until such time as one of them are killed or lynched, however, this is probably best filed for the future.

I don't really suspect this info is there on day one, despite knowing the alignments of both candidates. As has been stated, the better place to look on day one voting info is earlier in the day. At the end of the day, wolves would have been in self-preservation mode having outted a baner and watched a wolf go spectacularly up-in-flames, I think that was every man for himself.

Riling up Rowain further:

Why don't you try scumhunting instead of temper tantruming if you're innocent?

Cherry picking things that stand out to me, not trying to summarize the full days. Have to finish this later, but here are a few more gut feels:

Lewwyn voted Gaspar on the day he hung. Unless there's only one wolf left, there was a wolf on Lewwyn (myself and waterbat are the only Meiz voters still alive). If Lewwyn was bussed, trying to give Gaspar cover makes sense.

Rowain was an excellent target to rile up, and I think Gaspar knew this. Not saying that Gaspar did most of the riling up, but Rowain acted exactly like scum would hope him to. Rowain antagonized half the village which probably contributed to his later lynch. Gaspar would know this better than anyone, being prone to outbursts himself in the past and having deliberately antagonized a villager as a wolf before (Serdoa, don't remember the game).

Gaspar has received little suspicion all game in spite of a poor voting record, he's not once been a serious lynch candidate that I've been able to find.

Again, I'm not locked in and not done examining your posts. Also not done examining others either.

[Catwalk]

Forgot another gut feel:

Gaspar matches the profile for the somewhat bewildered wolf team we saw on day 1. We now know (or have good reason to believe) that thestick wasn't bussed right away, the crusade on him was led by villagers. By his own admission, Gaspar was less active and less motivated. I believe this, and think that contributed to the day 1 scum chaos.

[pindicator]

@work but trying to sneak in reading

Waterbat
Having a hard time understanding why waterbat was pushing for other targets than jkaen yesterday. I thought then it was because he was buddied with jkaen, but obviously that isn't correct.
Plus, if he's wolf he really is bumbling around as one. He doesn't seem calculating at all in his posts, a lot like catwalk really. So yeah, I am softening on waterbat.
If you are a wolf, waterbat, and I end up giving you the victory, then I am never playing this game again. Yes, WW14 is my weak spot, and you're exploiting it perfectly. You better be village

Meiz
For being the guy that attacked me with this:

In the end, it's the votes that matter.

I'm really disturbed by your lack of vote today, despite all the posts you've made.

Another thing that bugs me is that you acknowledged I had a good point about jkaen yesterday

Ok, that's a good find and I'd really like Jkaen respond to it.

But you never seem to acknowledge his response.

Another thing: why are you voting Catwalk & Twinkletoes for mayor? Gaspar made a good point: a villager with bad judgment is almost as bad as a wolf. I think you're the only one who hasn't self-voted for mayor here at the end.

And another thing: how far did you get with those Lewwyn files you said you were reading through? We haven't had a comprehensive from you like I expected. In fact, you've gone really quiet since Lewwyn was lynched despite following me & novice on him. Shouldn't you have been excited? I don't see excitement or the same energy level in your posts.

Gaspar
You keep talking about process, so in your opinion which path has the least risk to village as being wrong? Taking into account there are possibilities of 2 scum & 1 scum, who makes sense as a wolf pair to you? Using that, what's the best way to proceed? I am considering voting for you just because of the reason of processes: point being that if there are 2 scum, I've got you as the scum partner. See my post at the beginning of the day for details. Would like a response from you about this.

Also - now you don't trust me as much as you did yesterday? I'm unclear from your post; you aren't attacking me, but your mayor vote seems to say you have more doubts now than you did yesterday.

Catwalk
Keep digging, I like what I'm seeing from you today.


Meiz is giving me the most question marks right now, so I would like to hear from him most of all.

[Catwalk]

pindicator, do you agree with my assessment that you going after Lewwyn that fiercely would make plenty sense as a wolf play?

[Meiz]

Another thing that bugs me is that you acknowledged I had a good point about jkaen yesterday

But you never seem to acknowledge his response.

Do you remember his response? As far as I recall, he said he'd come back to it later and never did.

Another thing: why are you voting Catwalk & Twinkletoes for mayor? Gaspar made a good point: a villager with bad judgment is almost as bad as a wolf. I think you're the only one who hasn't self-voted for mayor here at the end.

I prefer to vote mayor who is most likely villager. I preferred waterbat to hang yesterday, don't think TT showed bad judgement with that one. Does Catwalk have that bad judgement? I haven't seen any support for me being a mayor, what's the point of self voting then, just to give off villager vibes?

And another thing: how far did you get with those Lewwyn files you said you were reading through? We haven't had a comprehensive from you like I expected.

I've got the notes, but not in any organized form.

In fact, you've gone really quiet since Lewwyn was lynched despite following me & novice on him. Shouldn't you have been excited? I don't see excitement or the same energy level in your posts.

Eh? Not sure I've ever shown any extra cheerfulness after wolf lynches, when there's still business at hand so to speak.

[pindicator]

pindicator, do you agree with my assessment that you going after Lewwyn that fiercely would make plenty sense as a wolf play?

I think it makes as much sense as Lewwyn being scum partners with you and voting you day 2 while you vote mattimeo, to be honest. Yes, it's possible, but it's very risky and therefore not as likely. Lewwyn had been throwing dirt on my name most of the game and when I called him on it earlier he went into quite an attack. It's drawing a lot of attention, and I think is evidence that we aren't on the same side.

Do you remember his response? As far as I recall, he said he'd come back to it later and never did.

As for that 1 post that people want me to defend I will have to go back and try in read in context. I cant remember my thought process back at that point I guess I just didnt expect big swings like that without any wolf content in the 2 bandwagons

That was his response. He said he couldn't remember, not that he'd come back to it.

I prefer to vote mayor who is most likely villager. I preferred waterbat to hang yesterday, don't think TT showed bad judgement with that one. Does Catwalk have that bad judgement? I haven't seen any support for me being a mayor, what's the point of self voting then, just to give off villager vibes?

Okay, the TT vote for mayor yesterday makes sense if you were after waterbat then. But why vote Catwalk as mayor today? You haven't voted or given much indication where you plan to vote today, so am I to assume you find Gaspar the most suspicious? Does that mean you are starting to think waterbat is innocent?

Why no vote?

I've got the notes, but not in any organized form.

I'll show you mine if you show me yours...

Eh? Not sure I've ever shown any extra cheerfulness after wolf lynches, when there's still business at hand so to speak.

It's exciting to catch a wolf. At least, it is for me. Yes, we still have business, but catching Lewwyn made me feel like we were on to the scum team. Jkaen flipping village put a big dampener on that.