WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[waterbat]

Pindicator, I understand exactly where you are coming from. At some point, you have to trust someone. In fact, i thought similarly, until catwalk and meiz's posts - that made me reconsider handing the keys to you just yet. Before that, I was turning my game over to you in a similar way. If I'm wrong and I lose, Its going to be painful, but at some point I have to decide. LyLo is the time. I don't think order is significant - we must be correct. why not Gaspar first? If you review the voting records, particularly the mislynches, if you are villager, doesn't that mean Gaspar must be scum?

I guess it doesn't matter if you are truly the villager. If we lynch Meiz, certainly you would vote Gaspar tomorrow over me ( after catwalk dies at night ), right?

Haha. Question is Am I sure enough about Meiz to do that today? I don't know that I am pindicator. Catwalk and i are giving you a good reason to hit Gaspar first - we're both on him currently.

It's also nice we are doing this a realtime day ahead of time. I felt like a hammer was going to drop most of the other deadlines.

[Catwalk]

pindicator, bussing deliberately day 2 means you have a lot of time to lose your deep cover. Bussing when game is almost over gives stronger cover, and less time to lose it. If you are scum, I think it'd be a very good wolf play in order to gain near-full cover.

[BRickAstley]

Official Lynch Vote Count

Meiz - 1 - Pindicator
Waterbat - 1 - Gaspar
Gaspar - 2 - Waterbat, Catwalk

Players not voting: Meiz

Official Mayor Vote Count

Catwalk - 2 - Meiz, Catwalk
Pindicator - 2 - Pindicator, Waterbat
Gaspar - 1 - Gaspar

Players not voting: None

25 Hours Remaining

[Meiz]

Honestly, how likely do you think this game had 5 wolves vs 21 villagers? With 2 different villager trackers and Ichabod's baner in play? I really don't like the way these 1-wolf theories start to pop up now, when we'd be in lynch or lose situation today with 2 wolves.

Pind starts off with a vote on wb, but now suddenly sees him as villager and votes me with IMO flimsy reasoning. Ended up voting Jkaen yesterday after going back and forth with the two. Also on Azza vs Waterbat day 8, starts off with suspicion on waterbat, but ultimately ends up on Azza. Same pattern seems to happen again today. General feeling is that he seems to suspect waterbat always when wb is near the block, but ends up voting alternative candidates. Same turned other way around, waterbat is on the block and makes a case on pindicator. He survives the day and has completely turned his cloak on Pind.

Gaspar&waterbat. I could see this working as well. If two wolves left, it could be good tactic to just go against each other and get the win next day. Who could imagine two wolves killing off each other at this point. So Catwalk would get night killed and me&pind would go against each other next day. This theory would probably be the most risky, so maybe not...

Or Pind & Gaspar. Waterbat has voted Gaspar and Pind has expressed suspicion on Gaspar now and earlier as well. Yet he votes me because I haven't voted today yet, voted TT&Catwalk as mayor, didn't react to Jkaen's no-response? If that would be the case, I can easily see them pushing me and waterbat on top, and basically force us to vote each other for the wolf win (they could count on that).

Parts of Lewwyn files:

Post 1201:
"I mentioned earlier that I'm not getting a good enough read on Pindicator either way. As I stated earlier, I'm not willing to base it on whether I think one action is more scummy than another. I'm willing to wait, or at least in case I'm dead, willing to have the village give him a few more days to prove his innocence before making a final judgement"
"Remember that big opening day post by Waterbat. I haven't seen a continuation of that really. Dunno yet if that's more or less suspicious. But I'm actually thinking it might be less suspicious because a villager would tire of the act... right?"

Post 1637:
"FYI Meiz, Waterbat spells my name like that half the time or more. I don't think that's a tell. However, I think the rest of the argument on Waterbat is worth investigating as an alternative to Catwalk."

Post 1805 (On day 1 Matt wagon):
"Day 1 train on him might in fact be all villagers... Or TT is a Wolf and he's played his paranoia to a T."

No mention of Pind, who was the other unknown voter.

Post 1878:
Catwalk votes Matt and Lewwyn seems really pissed off by that.

Also: "Right now I think my second choice on the day is waterbat. I'll probably talk about that a little this afternoon."

Post 1922:
Basically says that waterbat is villager.

Post 2203:
"Of everyone left, the people I trust most are novice, Meiz, waterbat and catwalk. Feels odd to say Catwalk but I simply see no way for him to be a wolf. Likewise waterbat who I examined yesterday and convinced me of his villageryness."

Again strong statements. No mention of Gaspar or Pind.

Post 3013:
"Nah, waterbat's gotta be innocent based on the rereading I did of him a few days ago. I don't see a wolf's consistency or studied affect. Instead it's much more free flowing and un-apprehensive."

Post 3017:
"I trust novice and I'm not buying into the tinfoil. Meiz I have also stated the same thing. Gaspar is someone I sparred with just two days ago but then I went after you and my suspicion has only grown so maybe I need to revisit Gaspar, that's a fair criticism. Truth be told though he's been sounding more like the Gaspar of WW games past. Didn't I talk about him being like his Perpy self earlier this game? Pindicator is such a friggin' grey area. Honestly I can't tell, either way I don't think it harms us to keep him alive while we lynch people I'm more suspicious of."

"they become obvious villagers (Catwalk, Waterbat)"

Post 3216:
"Gaspar has been all over the place for me this game. I read him really village early in the game and then soured a bit later, but I'm not unopposed to his current "research" if it materializes. Might be a good lynch just because he's an experienced wolf... but damn it usually I'm more sure of him by this point."

"Pindi is a survivor for sure. Just noticed he's the Lawyer. How appropriate."

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299359 (for waterbat)
"I don't think its an insincere feeling you're getting from his post novice. I think its a more lackadaisical feeling. I said it before but I don't think waterbat is as focused, and thus I don't agree that he is scum."

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299370
"Pindi is honestly still a mystery to me. I just can't get a full read. Maybe I just haven't looked hard enough. The issue for me is that I don't have anything to hold onto with him. I can't remember a post by him that made me stop and think about what he said except for one post he made back on Day 2 where he stated that the entire reason for hanging him seemed to be based on a vote switch of which could be read as either a villager or a wolf"

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299572
"At least someone agrees with me. I`m on my phone in the middle of class so I can`t answer you yet pindi, but i did want to stateonce again that from what i read waterbat is village. He hasn`t been a great contributor, but then I simply haven`t seen scum. Just go back and read his post the first day, he`s all excited then he loses steam as it progresses like he realizes that its going to be hard work in this game to keep up his cleric persona. For a wolf it doesn`t make sense to simply drop it."

It's hard to guess if Lewwyn would make that strong statemets on wb as reverse-psychology (since wolf would not be that blunt, everyone will assume he's just buddying up villager). I think Lewwyn would be clever enough to pull a trick like this. Or if he's honestly just buddying up to a villager. He's very neutral on both Gaspar and Pind.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300802
Lewwyn states wolves and lynch order as:
Gaspar
Pindicator

With adding me as the third candidate, due to numerous villager reads on everyone else.

- Pind starts to attack Lewwyn heavily at night and during the day. Seems convenient to me. Changes to me immediately after novice, which I find really bizarre as he was so sure on Lewwyn. At one point he is even following me and votes waterbat, which doesn't make much sense. Because soon after he votes me because he finds Jkaen suspicious. Finally novice votes Lewwyn with Pind, me and Gaspar following.

- Gaspar wants to go Pind or Lewwyn, ends up on Lewwyn.

- Waterbat wants to vote me before pind. Thinks Lewwyn is lynchbait.

These are from Molach:
Post 725:
"Pindicator - Went for Mattimeo early, gave reasons to do so. And near lynchtime went for merovech (not wanting to vote thestick and
'not convinced' on case on bigger). At that point there were 10 minutes left and 3 more votes on bigger needed, so unclear what he would gain as a mafia with that switch."

Post 823:
"Pindicator is also suspect, I thought about him just before I saw Sarelns post voting for him and others following. So I agree with those putting pressure there."
But votes TT

Post 985:
"looks like sareln vs pindicator atm. Can't say right now which is better lynch, both are on my suspect list."

Post 1033:
Ends up voting Sareln.
"Have read through pindicators posts, and see some things that seem village. For one, he is chasing/engaging lurkers - me & waterbat both mentioned and told not to slip beyond radar."


I think Pindicator is my preferred wolf candidate today.

[pindicator]

pindicator, bussing deliberately day 2 means you have a lot of time to lose your deep cover. Bussing when game is almost over gives stronger cover, and less time to lose it. If you are scum, I think it'd be a very good wolf play in order to gain near-full cover.

Catwalk, I think the best evidence I can give for my villagerness is that I have been the most active in trying to get people to post their thoughts and opinions. Yesterday I was calling on you, Meiz, & Twinkletoes to post, and today I'm pushing Meiz largely because he hasn't voted. Because we need to get all the information we can if we're going to be able to figure this out.

Btw - how goes the gaspar post reading?

[Meiz]

I think it makes as much sense as Lewwyn being scum partners with you and voting you day 2 while you vote mattimeo, to be honest. Yes, it's possible, but it's very risky and therefore not as likely. Lewwyn had been throwing dirt on my name most of the game and when I called him on it earlier he went into quite an attack. It's drawing a lot of attention, and I think is evidence that we aren't on the same side.

Sorry, can you point me to some examples on this?

That was his response. He said he couldn't remember, not that he'd come back to it.

"As for that 1 post that people want me to defend I will have to go back and try in read in context."

I was waiting for him to do that, he never did.

But why vote Catwalk as mayor today? You haven't voted or given much indication where you plan to vote today, so am I to assume you find Gaspar the most suspicious? Does that mean you are starting to think waterbat is innocent?

Why not? For Gaspar and wb, read the post above.

It's exciting to catch a wolf. At least, it is for me. Yes, we still have business, but catching Lewwyn made me feel like we were on to the scum team. Jkaen flipping village put a big dampener on that.

Yes it is, but I don't recall typing any different after lynching wolf or villager in any of our previous games.

[pindicator]

Now there's a cross-post

First off, at least I got you to commit to something...

I think it makes as much sense as Lewwyn being scum partners with you and voting you day 2 while you vote mattimeo, to be honest. Yes, it's possible, but it's very risky and therefore not as likely. Lewwyn had been throwing dirt on my name most of the game and when I called him on it earlier he went into quite an attack. It's drawing a lot of attention, and I think is evidence that we aren't on the same side.

Sorry, can you point me to some examples on this?

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299432

Actually, you may have to go a little before that to get Lewwyn's post that I'm responding to. But he attacks me plenty without voting, and I'm calling him out on it. Here it is: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299370 It's the post that is getting quoted today as a tie between Lewwyn and I. Well, I attacked Lewwyn for making that exact post.

Basically, my thinking was that he was trying to keep suspicion on me while not casting a vote. Like Gaspar said in 2561:

If I was scum, I'd be thrilled to keep you around, Pindicator. You make a perfect patsy. Removing that option is one of the decent reasons. The fact that you have a high probability of being scum is the another.

Other posts that Lewwyn attacks me (and sorry, I didn't link every post in my notes but I have the post number):

1134 - Attacks Serdoa, passive attack on pindicator
1138 - Says he won't defend pindicator as he's on the fence about him
2272 - says pindicator is suspicious, says he wants to sit back and see where people vote - laying the groundwork for future lurking?
2273 - votes pindicator
2403 - http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid296586
responding to attacks on him
puts his wolf list as: pindicator, azza, gaspar
votes pindicator
says he will look into tasunke
2410 - says azza & pindicator are in "cahoots"
2727 - asks tasunke why the post restrictor has to be novice, meiz or pindicator
3216 - http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299244
lists his villagers (catwalk, novice, waterbat, meiz, TT)
and his scum (jkaen, selrahc, gaspar, pindicator, ichabod, azza)
Jkaen - says he thought jkaen was innocent early, but after injury he is an enigma.
Gaspar - all over the place
Pindicator - "a survivor for sure"
3233 - responds to novice: why pindicator is on his shit list
3236 - lays out attack on pindicator
3252 - defends pindicator's attack
3273 - agrees with pindicator's defending of waterbat, defends waterbat more
3276 - big post on why he has been consistent on his suspicion of pindicator
(right after he defends my attack on waterbat? That doesn't seem consistent at all)
3375 - http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300061
rehashes his suspects
village: novice, TT, waterbat, meiz
top wolf: ichabod, selrahc, pindicator
2nd tier: gaspar, jkaen
3478 - http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300802
village: me, novice, ichabod, tt, catwalk, waterbat, jkaen
lynch order: gaspar, pindicator, meiz
attacks gaspar & pindicator for both going after jkaen, mischaracterizes it as being a heavy attack on jkaen when we both were putting him down as suspect.


Now if his idea was to bus me for cred, why didn't he vote me before Day 5? I think he was trying to keep suspicion on me, like Gaspar said, to be a patsy in the end-game.

"As for that 1 post that people want me to defend I will have to go back and try in read in context."

I was waiting for him to do that, he never did.

Fair point on jkaen's response

Why not? For Gaspar and wb, read the post above.

I agree that Gaspar & WB is a possibilty. My 2-wolf-left possibilities both include Gaspar, if you recall.

Responding to the huge post next.

[pindicator]

Honestly, how likely do you think this game had 5 wolves vs 21 villagers? With 2 different villager trackers and Ichabod's baner in play? I really don't like the way these 1-wolf theories start to pop up now, when we'd be in lynch or lose situation today with 2 wolves.

Less likely, but it's still a possibility. Another thought to killing TT - if wolves killed you, me, or gaspar then they would automatically narrow the field for the one of us that wasn't scum. Assuming one of us is scum. TT was the only one yesterday that had zero heat on him.

Pind starts off with a vote on wb, but now suddenly sees him as villager and votes me with IMO flimsy reasoning. Ended up voting Jkaen yesterday after going back and forth with the two. Also on Azza vs Waterbat day 8, starts off with suspicion on waterbat, but ultimately ends up on Azza. Same pattern seems to happen again today. General feeling is that he seems to suspect waterbat always when wb is near the block, but ends up voting alternative candidates. Same turned other way around, waterbat is on the block and makes a case on pindicator. He survives the day and has completely turned his cloak on Pind.

Day 8 I believed Lewwyn's defense of waterbat. Once lewwyn flipped scum, I was digging up incriminating quotes alongside novice. And I was starting to believe Lewwyn was village. It wasn't until the reassessment post-forum-debacle that I put Lewwyn on my scum list, more because other people floated village. And the night 9 interaction with him was a tell to my eyes, and thankfully one I was right on.

As for waterbat vs. jkaen, I said yesterday I suspected them both as a pair. I did agree with gaspar that jkaen was the better lynch due to inactivity, because if we were wrong then it was safer for the village. Really would like to hear Gaspar's take on what a good process is for today with similar reasoning, as I asked him earlier.

And you're going to say it's flimsy reasoning to suspect that you're just hanging back and watching which way the tides go? I've had to call you and Gaspar both out on that today. You told me votes matter when you attacked me a few days back, but you not voting shouldn't raise eyebrows? That's a double standard.

Gaspar&waterbat. I could see this working as well. If two wolves left, it could be good tactic to just go against each other and get the win next day. Who could imagine two wolves killing off each other at this point. So Catwalk would get night killed and me&pind would go against each other next day. This theory would probably be the most risky, so maybe not...

This is exactly what Novice & Molach were doing in WW14, so yes - I agree that this is a possibility. I also have Gaspar & Waterbat as one of my possible scum pairs. Earlier I said I was suspecting Lewwyn + Meiz + Jkaen or Gaspar, but I couldn't see both as a pair. I've later brought back waterbat onto my suspect list, because I didn't want to lose just because I didn't want to be wrong for defending him on Night 8.

Or Pind & Gaspar. Waterbat has voted Gaspar and Pind has expressed suspicion on Gaspar now and earlier as well. Yet he votes me because I haven't voted today yet, voted TT&Catwalk as mayor, didn't react to Jkaen's no-response? If that would be the case, I can easily see them pushing me and waterbat on top, and basically force us to vote each other for the wolf win (they could count on that).

Yes, I wanted you to vote today. Again, you not voting and sitting back looked suspicious. You outline Gaspar in both of your wolf pairs, and yet you do not vote him; so the only reason to vote me today is therefore if you think I'm a solo wolf. Otherwise you have to think I'm scummier than waterbat and sure of a Gaspar/Pindicator pair. After how you've been on waterbat since day 8, I have a hard time seeing why you don't want to vote for him now that there isn't a clear 2nd option.

[Catwalk]

Meiz, I like your findings but I'm puzzled why they lead to your conclusion that pindicator is wolf. In spite of my paranoid misgivings above, I still consider him most likely to be villager. If he's alive tomorrow I think he should be scrutinized heavily, but I can't see him as the best candidate today. I'm also suspicious of Gaspar and waterbat as a pair, I agree that them attacking each other now is a sensible wolf ploy.

[pindicator]

As it turns out however, I'm trying to get us a win and in that case Jkaen made the most sense yesterday. Even as I was wrong, I still trust the process there. Anyway, what I find most interesting there is the way you completely soft-pedal Meiz there. He's the one who has been on you most vociferously. But I guess its convenient to vote me first and him second since you only need to get me mislynched to win.

Waterbat

Gaspar

Gaspar, if you think waterbat is soft-pedally Meiz's attack, then who do you think is his wolf partner?