WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[waterbat]

@meiz - i was going to bring up the last minute switch item myself- but its another reason for consolidating votes. Im thinking what molach did in ww14 - give us hope and then snatch it away.

@catwalk - ive dug enough graves for the both of us - i guess enough for all 5 of us to lay down in. I want to go over this very point in post-game though.

[Meiz]

One thing about the bargaining, meiz. I did notice that when he posted it, but Waterbat also bargained like that in WW14 and i used it in a case against him (before rowain Chickened him)

Still doesn't change the point of survival vs. looking for wolves that I'm getting from him. I'll keep my vote on wb in case there's second thoughts on this...

[pindicator]

...which means the bargaining is a null tell, imo

[Catwalk]

Crossposted with pindicator, I agree with your analysis. If you're scum I've pretty much signed away the game as I can't see myself voting for you tomorrow either. If neither one of us dies during the night I may have to reconsider, but even then it could very much be a wolf ploy.

Crossposting with Meiz, I don't think being in survival mode is an unlikely reaction for a villager who keeps putting his foot in his mouth. I agree waterbat hasn't been a very good villager (nor have I most of the game), but I think the evidence points towards Gaspar. I agree there could be a wolf on wolf waterbat who plans on changing later, but I don't think it's likely. I would very much like you to vote Gaspar, on the off chance that pindicator and Gaspar are wolves and pindicator is engaged in some strategizing. Don't think that's likely in the least, but it would suck to be stuck on the wrong target. I can also easily rationalize the bargaining with a confused and overeager villager who is fighting to not be mislynched.

waterbat, I don't think your reasoning is terrible but you didn't go about it very well. And you probably weren't the one to suggest, having a big stake in the matter.

[pindicator]

@catwalk - ive dug enough graves for the both of us - i guess enough for all 5 of us to lay down in. I want to go over this very point in post-game though.

Why wait?

One thing about the bargaining, meiz. I did notice that when he posted it, but Waterbat also bargained like that in WW14 and i used it in a case against him (before rowain Chickened him)

Still doesn't change the point of survival vs. looking for wolves that I'm getting from him. I'll keep my vote on wb in case there's second thoughts on this...

When isn't there 2nd thoughts?

[waterbat]

@pindicator - why wait? because the idea of consolidating votes on one trusted person in our current situation has been so abhorred. It gives us little information for tomorrow and if this is a 1-wolf endgame - it certainly is harmful. I understand it has its drawbacks.

[Gaspar]

Well, I don't even know how to respond. I'm getting accused based on meta and a blatant setup crusade from obvscum. We've tried these late swings on half the lunches and we've shot ourselves in the foot every time but Mattimeo.

I'm not able to give much on my phone @work but I honestly can't see how we're anywhere but 30 minutes from a scum win. I'm not convincing Catwalk at this point so either Pin is Waterbats scum buddy or you're about to hand them the game here by voting for someone other than person who is the most obvious scum. If there's game left after this, for the love of god lynch Waterbat. I suspect there isn't going to be game left after this though, so GG I guess.

[Gaspar]

Well, I don't even know how to respond. I'm getting accused based on meta and a blatant setup crusade from obvscum. We've tried these late swings on half the lunches and we've shot ourselves in the foot every time but Mattimeo.

I'm not able to give much on my phone @work but I honestly can't see how we're anywhere but 30 minutes from a scum win. I'm not convincing Catwalk at this point so either Pin is Waterbats scum buddy or you're about to hand them the game here by voting for someone other than person who is the most obvious scum. If there's game left after this, for the love of god lynch Waterbat. I suspect there isn't going to be game left after this though, so GG I guess.

[Meiz]

@meiz - i was going to bring up the last minute switch item myself- but its another reason for consolidating votes. Im thinking what molach did in ww14 - give us hope and then snatch it away.

Sure, I'd just feel 100% better if the consolidating would be against you :F

Crossposting with Meiz, I don't think being in survival mode is an unlikely reaction for a villager who keeps putting his foot in his mouth. I agree waterbat hasn't been a very good villager (nor have I most of the game), but I think the evidence points towards Gaspar. I agree there could be a wolf on wolf waterbat who plans on changing later, but I don't think it's likely.

I've laid out my case on wb thorough the game and it would be real handy to collect all of them in one post now, if there'd be the time and I wouldn't have a fever. I simply fail to see how Gaspar goes over wb.

What about this one? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid303337

I would very much like you to vote Gaspar, on the off chance that pindicator and Gaspar are wolves and pindicator is engaged in some strategizing.

Waterbat could just vote for you as mayor and it wouldn't matter. Why are you even voting Pind as mayor, wb?

[Meiz]

What about this one? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid303337

Besides the points against wb, Lewwyn is trying really hard to steer votes away from Molach to Ichabod, and at the same time Gaspar simply votes Molach. I'm not seeing how it makes much sense. It makes more sense when waterbat refuses to vote Molach, but unvotes instead. This despite saying earlier that Molach is his #1 target (since he didn't see Azza suspicious anymore)