WW17 - A Game of Thrones

[Mardoc]

If he's scum and sees something about the so-called mess that obviously implicates scum... why would he want to draw attention to it?

Well, that's true, he probably wouldn't.

Are you serious? Me being alive on day 2 indicates that Lewwyn must be innocent? I mean, I could probably poke a few holes in that theory, but is it really necessary?

You're turning a weak statement into a strong one. You being alive day 2 indicates that Lewwyn might be innocent. But more importantly to me, it indicates that you might not be.

Although, hmm. Just went back and reread Brick's last will and testament post, and he'd suspected Lewwyn heavily while you didn't. So that might be part of the story. I was misremembering his suspect list and thought Lewwyn was fairly clear of suspicion.

[Twinkletoes89]

Thanks for your thoughts Sareln.

But seen as you have given your opinion on Tasunke, Mattimeo and a bit on Brick, could you give us some thoughts on why you have chosen to vote for Lewwyn?

[Twinkletoes89]

Are you serious? Me being alive on day 2 indicates that Lewwyn must be innocent? I mean, I could probably poke a few holes in that theory, but is it really necessary?

You're turning a weak statement into a strong one. You being alive day 2 indicates that Lewwyn might be innocent. But more importantly to me, it indicates that you might not be.

Although, hmm. Just went back and reread Brick's last will and testament post, and he'd suspected Lewwyn heavily while you didn't. So that might be part of the story. I was misremembering his suspect list and thought Lewwyn was fairly clear of suspicion.

I have to side with zak here, Mardoc. I'm not sure what you are getting at when you say that simply because Zak is alive, Lewwyn might be innocent and Zak might be guilty.

Even if there is a historical pattern of Lewwyn being a wolf and targeting zak on day one, why would Lewwyn (if he were guilty) want to continue that pattern which would then draw attention to himself?

I just have no idea what exactly you are getting at. It currently makes no sense to me whatsoever

[Sareln]

Could you give us some thoughts on why you have chosen to vote for Lewwyn?

He's off baseline and I've got nothing better to go on right now. So dump on the pressure and see what happens.

TT, why do you think BRickAstley got killed in the night?

[Mardoc]

I have to side with zak here, Mardoc. I'm not sure what you are getting at when you say that simply because Zak is alive, Lewwyn might be innocent and Zak might be guilty.

Even if there is a historical pattern of Lewwyn being a wolf and targeting zak on day one, why would Lewwyn (if he were guilty) want to continue that pattern which would then draw attention to himself?

I just have no idea what exactly you are getting at. It currently makes no sense to me whatsoever

I'm phrasing myself badly, partly because I'm not entirely sure what I'm getting at either. I guess it's fundamentally that I don't understand why Brick and Ichabod got the axe (especially Brick), and brainstorming possible reasons. One of which is that the usual stronger villagers aren't villagers.

But I haven't come to a firm conclusion either way on that. I was hoping to be getting explanation-type responses, not defensive ones. There really hasn't been much discussion of the kill targets and their implications, and I thought I'd be starting that conversation.

[Twinkletoes89]

Could you give us some thoughts on why you have chosen to vote for Lewwyn?

He's off baseline and I've got nothing better to go on right now. So dump on the pressure and see what happens.

TT, why do you think BRickAstley got killed in the night?

Fair enough on the Lewwyn front, that is a similar read to what I have on him right now.

On Brick's death, I was really surprised. He was nearly lynched yet someone really must have wanted him dead. The three explanations I see as most likely are that:

- the wolves wanted to capitalise on a few people's theory that there must be a wolf between the three of us who were up for lynch and kill a second innocent so that it leads to the suggestion that I must be a wolf.

- Brick was actively trying to at least appear to help the village with lots of quote digging up and long walls of text and so the wolves wanted to get rid of a more active village member whose efforts could hurt them if kept alive. This theory could run alongside the previous one as then it has double benefit.

- A vigilante who believed that there was a wolf in the three candidates thought that I was perhaps more lynchable than Brick and took a shot at him hoping to hit them.

I think all these theories are possible, but I think a combination of the first and second is the one I believe most.

[Twinkletoes89]

I have to side with zak here, Mardoc. I'm not sure what you are getting at when you say that simply because Zak is alive, Lewwyn might be innocent and Zak might be guilty.

Even if there is a historical pattern of Lewwyn being a wolf and targeting zak on day one, why would Lewwyn (if he were guilty) want to continue that pattern which would then draw attention to himself?

I just have no idea what exactly you are getting at. It currently makes no sense to me whatsoever

I'm phrasing myself badly, partly because I'm not entirely sure what I'm getting at either. I guess it's fundamentally that I don't understand why Brick and Ichabod got the axe (especially Brick), and brainstorming possible reasons. One of which is that the usual stronger villagers aren't villagers.

I can see where you are coming from in the last point - I made a similar point a few posts ago when I was wondering what the 'usual village leaders' were up to as they seemed to be playing differently. But I do think you definitely phrased that suggestion to zak poorly.

[novice]

But I haven't come to a firm conclusion either way on that. I was hoping to be getting explanation-type responses, not defensive ones. There really hasn't been much discussion of the kill targets and their implications, and I thought I'd be starting that conversation.

Scum will always be wary of the most obvious kill targets, for fear of village power roles. No big mystery there.

[zakalwe]

You're turning a weak statement into a strong one. You being alive day 2 indicates that Lewwyn might be innocent. But more importantly to me, it indicates that you might not be.

That's not what you said originally, although I figured this might be where you were heading. You just asked me to explain how Lewwyn could be scum, given that I'm alive. Anyway, if you really think arguments like this carry any weight - why not turn it around: If I'm scum, then why is Lewwyn still alive? Don't you think I would want him dead? It's an equally valid (i.e. silly) question.

If you had simply asked "why is Zak still alive?" it would have been a more sensible question (though still a bad argument for my guilt), but the way you're tying it to Lewwyn's alignment is just completely arbitrary.

Although, hmm. Just went back and reread Brick's last will and testament post, and he'd suspected Lewwyn heavily while you didn't. So that might be part of the story. I was misremembering his suspect list and thought Lewwyn was fairly clear of suspicion.

I did actually voice some suspicion against Lewwyn half an hour before dawn. That testament by Brick was posted at the last minute, and thus too late to have influenced the scum choice. On the other hand, we know that Lewwyn claimed to suspect Brick. If there are two scum teams, Lewwyn could be scum who genuinely suspected Brick, and therefore chose to target him. (Just a thought. I think it's a mistake to speculate too heavily at this point.)

I'm phrasing myself badly, partly because I'm not entirely sure what I'm getting at either. I guess it's fundamentally that I don't understand why Brick and Ichabod got the axe (especially Brick), and brainstorming possible reasons. One of which is that the usual stronger villagers aren't villagers.

But I haven't come to a firm conclusion either way on that. I was hoping to be getting explanation-type responses, not defensive ones. There really hasn't been much discussion of the kill targets and their implications, and I thought I'd be starting that conversation.

Ok, this is better. I guess see above, if you want more speculation on the night kills. Like I said, I don't think it's fruitful to speculate too much at this point. But if we get another night with two kills, I think it's safe to assume there are competing killers out there, and they may well be gunning for each other.

Also, like Novice said, there is the fear of protection. Keep in mind the scum used a strongman to kill me on N1 in the last game. They would not have risked it otherwise, judging by the scum thread.

[zakalwe]

Here's another potential explanation for Brick's death.

Nobody has yet claimed responsibility for the extra vote on Brick, so it's quite reasonable to assume that it's a scum ability. Given how close Brick came to hanging, that extra vote would clear him rather convincingly, if he were still alive. The scum would anticipate that and kill him off before his likely innocence became apparent to everybody.

This ties in well with the theory that the scum really wanted Brick to hang, and then hoped to implicate the others on the block with the extra vote. And the fact that the extra vote stayed on Brick, rather than being moved to whoever actually got mislynched, may indicate that the person controlling the vote was off-line. (Or perhaps he was on-line, but didn't react in time.)