WW17 - A Game of Thrones

[Qgqqqqq]

I really like that theory zak, makes most sense out of anythng so far.

On Night kills: I really dont think we can learn much by theorising on who they did (and didnt) pick, as there are dozens of factors as to why they pick who they do, and it doesnt help the village to create complicated theories based on that.

[Mattimeo]

Here's another potential explanation for Brick's death.

Nobody has yet claimed responsibility for the extra vote on Brick, so it's quite reasonable to assume that it's a scum ability. Given how close Brick came to hanging, that extra vote would clear him rather convincingly, if he were still alive. The scum would anticipate that and kill him off before his likely innocence became apparent to everybody.

This ties in well with the theory that the scum really wanted Brick to hang, and then hoped to implicate the others on the block with the extra vote. And the fact that the extra vote stayed on Brick, rather than being moved to whoever actually got mislynched, may indicate that the person controlling the vote was off-line. (Or perhaps he was on-line, but didn't react in time.)

As someone who was voting BRick, and wasn't online at the time... you actually make a decent case here, as much as it impacts my own survival chances to agree with it.
Though, if it's a scum ability (and I agree with your reasoning as to why it probably is), I'd think it more likely to be a secret second vote, rather than their normal vote counting twice, simply for the ease in which such a double vote can be pinpointed - rather a liability for scum.

[Lewwyn]

There's a lot here for me to answer, most of it wrong.

[Azza]

Well, since it seems there's absolutely no interest in resolving the people who on the block yesterday, I'll change my vote to coco. Hasn't said much at all, and what he has said hasn't been particularly insightful. Would be happy to change my vote if he shared his thoughts a bit more though.

[Lewwyn]

@novice Mardoc voted coco

@Lewwyn Thats the best you could come up with? WW2? Are you serious? I mean I have played any game since then with the exception of 15 and you tell stories from 2??? I think people can easily read through my games to find my reactions when I was a wolf to be different .

Somehow you remind me of getting accused by Gaspar in the last game therefore Lewwyn.

Yes I'm serious. WW2 is my baseline for you in all my games. Duh. The way you're reacting though is pretty scummy though. You used a godamn smilie face? This is what I'm talking about! You're so much more glib when you're a wolf. You start to get an edge at the beginning of your statement and then you undercut the hardness but evening it out making a joke and using a similie. Your incredulousness is your tell.

I'm actually quite OK with lynching both Lewwyn, Coco and Mattimeo at this point. This almost feels too easy, OTOH this game has a much more manageable size than the last one.

It's too easy because after last game I'm a patsy.

As it stands currently, Lewwyn still feels like a good lynch to me. I can't say that I'm convinced that he's scum, but he seems off, and I don't really see any better suspects. The main risk with lynching him would be that we're NOT lynching a lurker.

I haven't read the full wolf thread from the previous game, but I read the first day or so, and I remember Lewwyn telling Thestick quite forcefully to not "engage" me, when I was on his case. I'm not really sure why he thought that was such good advice, but maybe he is now following his own advice, in this game. At any rate he is strangely passive. (Just to be clear; I'm not expecting him to rage all over the thread, that is not what I'm getting at. But he may be trying to stay cool and wait for the tide to turn. As town, he would not have the same expectation that the tide will turn.)

(Off-topic: That was a neat way to compile a tally, Novice. I like it.)

Yeah, thestick was weaker in confrontation he wouldn't be able to engage you. You're too slippery, aggressive passive just when you need to be. I believe you are a wolf this game as well though so its either I engage you or let you herd the town toward lynching townies.

I do have a question for you, zak. If Lewwyn's a traitor, why aren't you dead? He was happy to make you the first kill last game.

Sigh this is a stupid question Mardoc. Too open for Zak to twist back on you. Which he did.

Echoing Matt, thank goodness we're back on the forum. Reading the QT was starting to hurt.

Tasunke:

If he hadn't started arguing with himself, I think it would have been perfectly fine. Instead, the argument created just enough suspicion that perhaps everything isn't Tasunke that it acted as a net injector of general chaos. Random musings on multi-ID WW is just noise. IMO, Tasunke's SNR (Signal to Noise Ratio) has been really low this game. As it is, that 2nd part is the most important bit. Lots of noise, little engagement with the game. I can sympathize (It's been hard to get engaged this game with the various locale shifts), and I suspect that it's two sides of the same thing - faced with nothing to engage with, Tasunke creates noise, while I shut up.

Mattimeo:

TBH, if you're just skimming the thread, Tasunke's name/ID changeups and self-arguing actually jumps out really fast. I don't find it that suspicious since it's in keeping with an aforementioned busy-ness.

Other Thoughts:

My first thought is that BRickAstley was killed in an attempt to land a mislynch from the 3rd candidate of the 3-way tie (TT, not checking right now). His death seems really weird to me, but on the other hand it must not be that weird if BRickAstley (correctly) saw it coming.

For now, I'm going to park my vote on Lewwyn

Awesome job Sareln. Way to fucking "park" your vote on someone after not putting an ounce of reasoning into why.

Are you serious? Me being alive on day 2 indicates that Lewwyn must be innocent? I mean, I could probably poke a few holes in that theory, but is it really necessary?

You're turning a weak statement into a strong one. You being alive day 2 indicates that Lewwyn might be innocent. But more importantly to me, it indicates that you might not be.

Although, hmm. Just went back and reread Brick's last will and testament post, and he'd suspected Lewwyn heavily while you didn't. So that might be part of the story. I was misremembering his suspect list and thought Lewwyn was fairly clear of suspicion.

I have to side with zak here, Mardoc. I'm not sure what you are getting at when you say that simply because Zak is alive, Lewwyn might be innocent and Zak might be guilty.

Even if there is a historical pattern of Lewwyn being a wolf and targeting zak on day one, why would Lewwyn (if he were guilty) want to continue that pattern which would then draw attention to himself?

I just have no idea what exactly you are getting at. It currently makes no sense to me whatsoever

God. I hate it when TT sounds logical. I know there's something wrong with the world. Look, you only have one game to get a wolf baseline from me. There is no history. But let me tell you. I was in favor of killing off Bigger when I was a wolf. I was fine with the Zak kill but Bigger was my choice. Why? because I think he's more dangerous than Zak. If anything last game should tell you that I have a penchant for getting rid of Bigger. And the fact that I didn't take the opportunity to vote for Bigger yesterday should be a village tell. I respect Bigger's game a lot more than most people here. I think he's dangerous. But I also started to think he was innocent yesterday and I kept my vote on Brick who I believed to be scum.

You're turning a weak statement into a strong one. You being alive day 2 indicates that Lewwyn might be innocent. But more importantly to me, it indicates that you might not be.

That's not what you said originally, although I figured this might be where you were heading. You just asked me to explain how Lewwyn could be scum, given that I'm alive. Anyway, if you really think arguments like this carry any weight - why not turn it around: If I'm scum, then why is Lewwyn still alive? Don't you think I would want him dead? It's an equally valid (i.e. silly) question.

If you had simply asked "why is Zak still alive?" it would have been a more sensible question (though still a bad argument for my guilt), but the way you're tying it to Lewwyn's alignment is just completely arbitrary.

Although, hmm. Just went back and reread Brick's last will and testament post, and he'd suspected Lewwyn heavily while you didn't. So that might be part of the story. I was misremembering his suspect list and thought Lewwyn was fairly clear of suspicion.

I did actually voice some suspicion against Lewwyn half an hour before dawn. That testament by Brick was posted at the last minute, and thus too late to have influenced the scum choice. On the other hand, we know that Lewwyn claimed to suspect Brick. If there are two scum teams, Lewwyn could be scum who genuinely suspected Brick, and therefore chose to target him. (Just a thought. I think it's a mistake to speculate too heavily at this point.)

I'm phrasing myself badly, partly because I'm not entirely sure what I'm getting at either. I guess it's fundamentally that I don't understand why Brick and Ichabod got the axe (especially Brick), and brainstorming possible reasons. One of which is that the usual stronger villagers aren't villagers.

But I haven't come to a firm conclusion either way on that. I was hoping to be getting explanation-type responses, not defensive ones. There really hasn't been much discussion of the kill targets and their implications, and I thought I'd be starting that conversation.

Ok, this is better. I guess see above, if you want more speculation on the night kills. Like I said, I don't think it's fruitful to speculate too much at this point. But if we get another night with two kills, I think it's safe to assume there are competing killers out there, and they may well be gunning for each other.

Also, like Novice said, there is the fear of protection. Keep in mind the scum used a strongman to kill me on N1 in the last game. They would not have risked it otherwise, judging by the scum thread.

Well half of this makes me think Zak is a wolf, half makes me think he's a villager. The bit about me makes me think scum, but the bit where he says "Ok, this is better" makes me think villager. Because villager Zak is less engaged in changing his mind.

Here's another potential explanation for Brick's death.

Nobody has yet claimed responsibility for the extra vote on Brick, so it's quite reasonable to assume that it's a scum ability. Given how close Brick came to hanging, that extra vote would clear him rather convincingly, if he were still alive. The scum would anticipate that and kill him off before his likely innocence became apparent to everybody.

This ties in well with the theory that the scum really wanted Brick to hang, and then hoped to implicate the others on the block with the extra vote. And the fact that the extra vote stayed on Brick, rather than being moved to whoever actually got mislynched, may indicate that the person controlling the vote was off-line. (Or perhaps he was on-line, but didn't react in time.)

I was also thinking that the double vote could be a scum ability. It's why I decided to put TT back into possible suspicion zone. The only way you find out if scum cared if anyone of the people on the block hung is to hang them and find out. but I think that's a bad idea. Day 1 is too much confusion at this moment and I also think its tainted by using the QT. I really think we're better off lynching Rowain who I am feeling much more confident about after his last response and revenge vote.

[pindicator]

Coco, how many hours a day do you work?

I liked your first post, btw:

Checking in.

Got an exam today, so unlikely to be very responsive 'til that's done with.

Right, an exam is more important than this.

Mattimeo

Anyway, off to sleep.

Good stuff

[Lewwyn]

So. Upon second reading of the posts while I was asleep, I'm feeling Zak is probably town. I'm still feeling really good about Rowain.

About Mattimeo. I still don't know for sure where I stand there. I keep going back and forth between him being scum and village because I keep remembering Matt being a townie in the SMAC game and acting exactly the same and getting lynched for it. But then I also know he was sort of like that last game. I can't remember if he felt that the QT was cumbersome in the wolf thread last game... I do remember him posting a lot in the wolf thread though.

[Lewwyn]

As it stands currently, Lewwyn still feels like a good lynch to me. I can't say that I'm convinced that he's scum, but he seems off, and I don't really see any better suspects. The main risk with lynching him would be that we're NOT lynching a lurker.

I haven't read the full wolf thread from the previous game, but I read the first day or so, and I remember Lewwyn telling Thestick quite forcefully to not "engage" me, when I was on his case. I'm not really sure why he thought that was such good advice, but maybe he is now following his own advice, in this game. At any rate he is strangely passive. (Just to be clear; I'm not expecting him to rage all over the thread, that is not what I'm getting at. But he may be trying to stay cool and wait for the tide to turn. As town, he would not have the same expectation that the tide will turn.)

(Off-topic: That was a neat way to compile a tally, Novice. I like it.)

I want to return to this to address the idea that I'm being too passive. I have been REALLY busy. Today is the first I've had off. And even then I don't really have it off. The last week and a half I've been grading midterms and I'm still grading midterms. I wake up in the morning and I'm marking speeches and giving them back to students to revise and then having them deliver again just so that I can grade them. So like I said. I have very little idea about who is who and everyone reads scum because the way I play is you're guilty until proven innocent or someone is guiltier. For me Rowain has seperated himself from the pack.

And I don't intend to rage all over the thread but I do intend on trying to contribute as much as possible today since I have a day off. (Though I have 8am class to teach tomorrow and I have about 2 hours of grading to mark for that class too.)

And some may say, oh boohoo work is a bit tougher and this has never really been a problem for you before. And they'd be mostly right. But, I also have another personal time suck at the moment since my wife is pregnant.

I'm really excited, and I don't want people not to vote for me because of it, but it is a factor in my busyness and passivity.

[thestick]

What happened to the ability to search for psots by user?

On Mattimeo, I don't think that he'd be careless enough to launch such a faulty case on Tasunke if he was a wolf. Heh, people who are acting very weird are looking village to me
On Lewwyn, the whole 'I can't think of anything' thing sounded like myself from 15, but Lewwyn isn't supposed to remind me of myself.

Look, you only have one game to get a wolf baseline from me. There is no history. But let me tell you. I was in favor of killing off Bigger when I was a wolf. I was fine with the Zak kill but Bigger was my choice. Why? because I think he's more dangerous than Zak. If anything last game should tell you that I have a penchant for getting rid of Bigger. And the fact that I didn't take the opportunity to vote for Bigger yesterday should be a village tell. I respect Bigger's game a lot more than most people here. I think he's dangerous. But I also started to think he was innocent yesterday and I kept my vote on Brick who I believed to be scum.

Hang on, 'You should disregard my wolf play from last game, but my wolf play from last game indicates that I'm villager this game.' Wha?
Lewwyn

[Lewwyn]

What happened to the ability to search for psots by user?

On Mattimeo, I don't think that he'd be careless enough to launch such a faulty case on Tasunke if he was a wolf. Heh, people who are acting very weird are looking village to me
On Lewwyn, the whole 'I can't think of anything' thing sounded like myself from 15, but Lewwyn isn't supposed to remind me of myself.

Look, you only have one game to get a wolf baseline from me. There is no history. But let me tell you. I was in favor of killing off Bigger when I was a wolf. I was fine with the Zak kill but Bigger was my choice. Why? because I think he's more dangerous than Zak. If anything last game should tell you that I have a penchant for getting rid of Bigger. And the fact that I didn't take the opportunity to vote for Bigger yesterday should be a village tell. I respect Bigger's game a lot more than most people here. I think he's dangerous. But I also started to think he was innocent yesterday and I kept my vote on Brick who I believed to be scum.

Hang on, 'You should disregard my wolf play from last game, but my wolf play from last game indicates that I'm villager this game.' Wha?
Lewwyn

What? I didn't say I can't think of anything. At no point did I say I can't think of anything. I said earlier that everyone is looking scummy to me and my reads aren't great. NOT that I can't think of anything. If anything I've been adamant that I have one read that I do truely believe in.

As for the bit above, what are you talking about I never said disregard my wolf play from last game. I was saying that you don't have multiple games to build a history on. I didn't say you hould disregard my wolf play from last game in the slightest WTF are you talking about? If anything the bolded part is pointing out that my wolf play is different from this game.

This is terrible terrible reasoning thestick. Absolutely lazy and misguided. You want to hop on the wagon and give a reason for doing it, you better do a better job trying to twist up some words.