WW17 - A Game of Thrones

[Rowain]

@TT My reason for lynching coco is not policy but the fact that the few posts he did smell so wrong .

About your read. Quite good as long as you don't forget that 'more often than not' does allow for jokes/sillyness and not calculated moves.

[Twinkletoes89]

Ok - QT checked and quick tally up.

Apologies to Azza and Jkaen - they had considerably more posts on the QT so do actually have more than coco.

BUT

Sareln has as many posts as coco, and thestick still has less. So it becomes a possibly one in three crapshoot. Not the worst odds but still a shot I would rather not take unless we were more desperate.

Now I know Sareln is Sareln and silence is his middle name, but I think thestick has been ignored and has been just as 'useless' as coco has in terms of contributions. And unlike thestick, at least Coco seems to have tried to explain his difficulties and suggest he may at some point be better. Whether I believe that, I'm not sure. But I will remain in opposition to policy lynches as I always have, especially so early in the game

[novice]

Sry for lateish post, I thought we had another day.
Personally support coco lynch most, I get TTs point, but coco has contributed nothing so far, meaning reads will be difficult.

Is that a vote? Votes must be in red.

[novice]

Sareln has as many posts as coco, and thestick still has less. So it becomes a possibly one in three crapshoot. Not the worst odds but still a shot I would rather not take unless we were more desperate.

Now I know Sareln is Sareln and silence is his middle name, but I think thestick has been ignored and has been just as 'useless' as coco has in terms of contributions. And unlike thestick, at least Coco seems to have tried to explain his difficulties and suggest he may at some point be better. Whether I believe that, I'm not sure. But I will remain in opposition to policy lynches as I always have, especially so early in the game

If you read the contents of those posts you'll see that Coco is by far the lurkiest of the three. Furthermore Coco hasn't disappeared, he's around but not scumhunting. And still you want to give him a free pass until we're at LyLo.

[Twinkletoes89]

Sareln has as many posts as coco, and thestick still has less. So it becomes a possibly one in three crapshoot. Not the worst odds but still a shot I would rather not take unless we were more desperate.

Now I know Sareln is Sareln and silence is his middle name, but I think thestick has been ignored and has been just as 'useless' as coco has in terms of contributions. And unlike thestick, at least Coco seems to have tried to explain his difficulties and suggest he may at some point be better. Whether I believe that, I'm not sure. But I will remain in opposition to policy lynches as I always have, especially so early in the game

If you read the contents of those posts you'll see that Coco is by far the lurkiest of the three. Furthermore Coco hasn't disappeared, he's around but not scumhunting. And still you want to give him a free pass until we're at LyLo.

I would agree he hasn't been great. I just don't like lurker lynches. I think its as much as a shot in the dark and if we hit something then great, but then what? We get next to no information and I think it allows wolves to take a break. If it is a wolf, they can just cut them loose, not defend them and be safe in the knowledge that it won't lead the village to anyone. If its an innocent, even better. Let the village kill themselves and leave them with confusion and no new leads.

Also, I think lurkers are much less dangerous in the early game. Its the people that gain village cred and try and move the discussion to suit their terms that I am concerned with. I would rather risk possible mislynches that way than stabs in the dark that may give us nothing in terms of new information. Even a bad lynch early of a vocal player gives us a hell of a lot more information and a lot longer to interpret it. Its why I was so keen on lynching you for most of the last game, innocent or not. To have so many posts that you can look through with a confirmed identity behind them means that we have places to go back to if we get it wrong. If we lynch a lurker and its wrong, we have nothing and we will be starting again in terms of suspicions from where we are now.

That's my issue. I don't want to give anyone a free pass. I just fundamentally theoretically disagree with lynch lurkers policy lynching. Its not my style, nor will it ever be. Plus I think that this development of 'lynch lurkers' is a big explanation as to why the wolves/mafia have suddenly started winning more games.

[novice]

Plus I think that this development of 'lynch lurkers' is a big explanation as to why the wolves/mafia have suddenly started winning more games.

I don't have that impression myself, although I admit I haven't studied the numbers. But off the top of my head the only lurker we lynched in WW16 was Molach, and he was scum.

I see where you're coming from with regards to leads to follow up, but even a lurker lynch can tell us stuff. If Coco flips scum we can look at who voted with or against the lynch, and who pushed other candidates. If he flips village we look at who benefitted from Coco being pushed. It's certainly better than lynching a more active player giving village vibes. Furthermore, town must lynch all scum sooner or later, including lurker scum. And if we manage to lynch scum, the scum faction(s) reveal more information to us during the night, which we then act upon the next day. For that matter, it gives village power roles more time to do their thing.

[pindicator]

TT-
Please stop trying to cast the votes on Coco as a lurker lynch. This is not like jkaen last game. Coco is screaming noob wolf to me, not lurker. The votes on him today were to get him to speak up, and we told him several times to share his thoughts. Instead all he's posted is "I don't have time" and offered no thoughts, yet put in a defensive vote on mattimeo just as matt recently hit 2nd place in voting. That tells me he's following along enough to know the situation, or has people telling him where to put his defensive vote. But he still doesn't offer his suspicions. I think its because he has no suspicions, because he's a traitor and being new doesnt feel comfortable accusing someone he knows is innocent.

Sareln-
You are right, i mixed up your name with Serdoa's.

Barring anything new coming up befote my lunch ends, i'm keeping my vote on coco and strongly encourage everyone else to do the same.

[zakalwe]

I thought Mattimeo's case against Tasunke sounded quite phony to begin with, so that's why #111 is interesting to me. That joke indicates that he took it for granted (like everybody else) that Tasunke was indeed making those posts. So the way he's later basing a case on him "denying" this just seems very weak (and convoluted).

I also think he's guilty of lurking and only delurking to discuss meta. Note that when he engaged in my speculations about a scum double-voter, he kept it very abstract. He didn't try to actually apply the meta, to infer anybody's alignment. He's just discussing it on an abstract level, filling space.

I do feel that Mattimeo is a little more likely to flip scum than Coco. But it's very hard to resist the urge to lynch Coco after he states openly that he might be able to participate after another two game days.

The idea behind lynching lurkers early is that later, when you have to make the right call, you will be able to choose between people who have actually participated. Therefore, your odds of choosing correctly should improve. That's the idea, anyway. And also, it's very annoying when people cannot play, making the job that much harder for the rest of us. So it really feels good to lynch them. Or so I imagine. I actually don't think we've had a lot of early lurker lynches before.

Cross-posting with Pindicator... good point.

[Twinkletoes89]

TT-
Please stop trying to cast the votes on Coco as a lurker lynch. This is not like jkaen last game. Coco is screaming noob wolf to me, not lurker.

It feels like it to me but I appreciate that you at least have some other reasons which you have explained to me.

I personally just feel like its too easy and that giving a lurker one more chance to prove themselves is more attractive to me than letting someone who is a stronger player who could set up some mislynches if kept alive longer, live for more days.

But I accept that that theory doesn't seem to have many followers besides me, I'm used to being a poor cat herder.

I realise that if coco turns up to be scum, I'm not going to look good. But I don't care because I don't like these lynches.

[pindicator]

Well tbh TT if there is one person i believe wouldnt want to lynch coco it would be you. Its consistent with your prev games' attitudes.

Other ppl i dont understand why so much, but i dont see the case on mattimeo as being as strong as the one on coco. But i'll see what happens on my pm break- lunch is over.