WW17 - A Game of Thrones

[zakalwe]

QT post 90, by Coco.

AFK for a day and trying to catch up. First just a sidenote on my thestick comment, I didn't quite mean it to be a sexual joke. Ofc, when I look back it makes sense people read it that way.

So many posts, I bet I am mixing up people alot. Serdoa and Sareln especially. Btw, Serdoa is quiet, I wanna hear something from you.

Just putting it here for reference so I don't forget; will keep reading.

[Qgqqqqq]

Yay we(for a given value of we)got one! Im presuming serial/vig.

Are we changing fora again? If so, I move that a change be permanent. While we enjoy the setup here, the issues will just confuse the issue overmuch.

Coco, please, just try to say something today.

[Jkaen]

Ok, reached post 200 now, and have the following thoughts:

Here's another potential explanation for Brick's death.

Nobody has yet claimed responsibility for the extra vote on Brick, so it's quite reasonable to assume that it's a scum ability. Given how close Brick came to hanging, that extra vote would clear him rather convincingly, if he were still alive. The scum would anticipate that and kill him off before his likely innocence became apparent to everybody.

This ties in well with the theory that the scum really wanted Brick to hang, and then hoped to implicate the others on the block with the extra vote. And the fact that the extra vote stayed on Brick, rather than being moved to whoever actually got mislynched, may indicate that the person controlling the vote was off-line. (Or perhaps he was on-line, but didn't react in time.)

I believe the extra voters has revealed now, but it feels wierd that zak would immediately jump on it being a scum extra vote rather than somebody who had the ability to do it extra times and didnt want to show their power openly to the scum.

also you have taken it as fact that Brick was killed by scum, which given night 2's results seems far from a given

Rowain, why did you nameclaim so early?

while I agree it was a stupid thing for Rowain to do, it stuck me you were pursuing this thread rather strongly

Congratulations, Lewwyn. So I guess this means that in future games, we can expect you to be on at all kinds of strange hours.

A follow-up thought regarding the whole hidden vote thing is how it affects the idea that a scum Pindicator would have voted to save himself yesterday. When he placed his final vote for Bigger, this became the tally:

Brick (4) - Mattimeo Lewwyn Sareln Mardoc
Pindicator (4) - Jkaen Bigger Serdoa Zakalwe
Bigger (3) - Thestick Twinkletoes Pindicator
Twinkletoes (2) - Ichabod Tasunke
Novice (2) - Brick Rowain
Mardoc (1) - Novice
Serdoa (1) - Coco
Tasunke (1) - Azza

Not voting - Qqqqqq

So if he's scum, he would be aware that there's another hidden vote for Brick in play. Still, this would be cutting it awfully close, and it's not like anyone would fault him for voting for self-preservation, anyway. Framing himself with an extra vote on Brick would hardly be a stroke of genius, either... So IDK. Pindicator as scum doesn't really add up, if we just go by the voting record.

But while I'm on the topic:
Mattimeo Lewwyn Sareln Mardoc

Four off-line players voting for Brick, who ended up with an extra vote that nobody claims responsibility for. Mattimeo and Lewwyn deny that they're double-voters. I think I'd like all four of you to comment explicitly on what you think about the hidden vote and what it might mean.

Also, Lewwyn: If Rowain is scum, what do you make of his last minute voting yesterday? I keep thinking the hidden vote on Brick must have been a deliberate scum strategy, but Rowain swung the vote elsewhere, ruining that strategy.

Again this theory seems set on the extra vote being scum, without that then Rowain loses this village tell

I'm not lying. I see it how I see it. In your comment about the duplicate message you bolded Bigger. Of course you can't force a ruling or complain too hard. You have to back off and say "I don't know how you should rule this because I don't want to be the one who says it but I'm just putting it out there anyway"

Hahaha.
telll me what is your theory for those action? You proclaimed me a traitor here already but failed to explain the actions of TT, Serdoa and myself in that light.
(I'm referring to that post)

Zak you mentioned this:

/m309 "Good news is I think we can clear TT. He switched to Pindi to save himself only everyone was already jumping. I think if he were in a wolfpack he would know who the other wolves would be landing on ahead of time. If that's true then Bigger and TT are both innocent. Brick and pindi were the last two on the block. Could be that either of them is scum. [In the next post] Or neither..."
Again he is quick to clear TT. This looks more townish, but since he already started defending TT he could also just be following up on that.

And yeah I've actually started to change my mind again. This was written in night phase before the kills. But TT may actually be scum if Brick wasn't and Ichabod suspected him. The deaths make me lean back towards TT as scum. TT may have been making a "preservation vote" but it was happening so fast its possible he as a wolf actually missed it. He didn't actually want to get his vote on Bigger though. But he knew Rowain a packmate would be voting for bigger (which fell through). -- Just what I've been thinking about today at work.

Lewwyn since when are you a member of the tinfoil-hats?
If I understand you right you say: Wolf TT didn't want to make the selfsaving vote on villager Bigger on whom he already was! So TT moved off Bigger and hoped that Serdoa and Rowain would move to Bigger in time to save him?.

What does place does Serdoas last minute vote have in your theory?

Your answer to that concluded:

Ugh, Rowain making sense makes me want to vote for him. But it actually makes more sense to vote for pindicator or TT instead.

what happened to that?

Just to head back to this, Lewwyns theory fell apart because it would need TT, Rowain and Serdoa to be wolves all together as far as I understand... well 1 down...

[Jkaen]

Thanks for claiming, Mardoc, I think that was the right thing to do.

Let me add that the other GoT game I played in also had a town double-voter.

(Incidentally, that player tried to be coy and keep his ability vague and promptly got himself lynched.)

So that's not why Brick was killed. Hmm.

Now given you were convinced the double voter was scum, why not flip to Mardoc now?

Btw. Mardoc - why didn't you claim sooner?

Why should he, no reason at all to claim this power early as a villager, except to stop you all heading down a dead end as he did

Excellent post by Serdoa. QT#111 is interesting indeed.

Mattimeo

I'm not convinced by 111. That sounds like an off-the-cuff remark anybody trying to joke around would make.

Need to go to work, so I have to wait to try to digest this last post by Sareln. I'm wary of it, considering how his last attack on Lewwyn I thought was a great point only to have Sareln wisely refute it. And then no follow-up from Serdoa about Sareln refuting it, that was what makes me wary now.

Thought I should add here, that the minor tells from day 1 of Pinds wolfyness have been overshadowed by more equally minor feels of villagerness today, so have him at Neutral now (this post for example felt villager like to me)

[zakalwe]

QT post 314, by Coco:

Sucks that I missed the lynch deadline, I'm usually going to bed at that time so it should be perfect for me. Sorry serdoa, I missed you would be afk, but I meant to change the vote anyway later in the day. Maybe my vote could have changed things. I have to read through this again to see if I get a clue.

[Qgqqqqq]

Coco for now.

[zakalwe]

Jkaen, my point was that in the ABSENCE of a claim, the extra vote must be a scum ability. And if so, it would make sense that scum killed Brick, and so on. Implicitly, I was saying that a town double voter should claim, which I am glad he did. (Though it's obviously not certain that he is town.)

In the other game that I keep referencing, I also urged the town double voter to claim, but he didn't, and got himself lynched (not by my vote).

[Jkaen]

Ultimately though, it is a number of factors. For one, Ichabod built a decent case against you and then subsequently died night 1. Doesn't mean you were the one that killed him, or that it was done to protect you, but at least we know that he was a Loyalist. The fact that he suspected you is only a plus. Not that it is particularly corroboration though, since I wasn't looking at you with much suspicion (or any attention at all, really) until Ichabod mentioned you.

So that at least started my suspicions against you. Then, in my glorious brain gravy, I seem to remember you supporting several candidates that I felt were quite wolf-like. Among them is Mattimeo of course .... but I forget the other ones to be honest. I think they include Lewwyn, Coco, and Novice. Coco isn't particularly damning though, as although I wouldn't actively defend him, I don't have much of a read on him either (as I've earlier stated).

Still, I dunno, you just seemed to defend people at the times that I thought they were the scummiest. I don't particularly have a read on them now, but when they were in the wolf-zone, you seemed to pop out of nowhere and said "yea, that makes sense to me, I think these people are innocent."

And then there was that whole Lewwyn thinking Mattimeo was leaning villagery ... I dunno, could be reading more into it than is there.

----

Fake Crosspost: Nah, its not just Mattimeo. It's more than that, but at the moment my brain is too fried to put too fine a point on it. Still though ... I can remember at certain points during the past day/week of thinkin Lewwyn, coco, and Novice smelled a bit scummy, and then you showed up and somehow agreed with all the scummy bits. Maybe I'm just remembering things oddly, I'll have to go and check, but there ya go.

And yes, its just a cumulative intuition thing, nothing 'actually' damning. tbh

So, given the results and a bit of time to clear your head, what do you think now of this connection?

[Jkaen]

4 dead, all loyal. Not feeling great about our chances right now, especially with another couple of night kills likely coming up. Hopefully there's some scum crossfire in there...


Some of the things that stand out to me, as I try to organise my thoughts during the night while nothings happening.


I still think (night results pending) Coco needs to be policy lynched unless he can really start contributing. I just hope like hell he's scum, coz he's done practically nothing for us.

I'm beginning to feel uneasy on Mardoc and whether his double vote is truly a town ability. Scum wouldn't make sense from a meta perspective, but anti-town third party could especially if he had some sort of self-preservation ability.

Twinkletoes and Tasunke both seem completely and utterly crazy. I have no reliable scum or town read on either of them, but neither seems to be particularly productive.

I don't like Rowain's nameclaim either. I have no idea what it means, as I haven't read or watched GoT (although I do intend on doing so at some point), but "just for fun" doesn't strike me as the sort of thing Rowain would do. He typically seems focused and aggressive, a jovial post like that is completely out of character compared to what I'd expect.

The only person I'm genuinely getting a village read on is Lewwyn. I find it so hard to believe he'd have made his Loki mistake if he were scum, and his attitude since that mishap has only solidified it in my mind. If he's scum, he's a damn good actor.

This post has already been picked up on, but lots I dont like.

a. Policy lynching, especailly when we are trailing behind on catching scum
b. Mardoc having both an extra vote AND self preservation skills seems unlikely
c. namechecking TT, Tansuke and Rowain but then saying it doesnt really tell us anything

About Lewwyn: Thats BS. He knows full well that he will be far easier lynched as Loki than as Lewwyn. Had an unknown player named Loki tried that stunt with its mass of 'misinterpretations' (to not say lies) vs me on day 2 he would be swinging from the gallow right now.

If there are 2 packs then those are naturally rather small (2/pack) and in this circumstances I'm absolutly sure Lewwyn will/would return to his real name.

Of course so far there is no proof that it was done on purpose but I would not take that as a sign of his villagerishness.

I dont see why Loki (with his newbie protection) would be easier mislynched that Lewwyn. Plus I think only you see the 'mass of misinterpretations'

Jkaen, my point was that in the ABSENCE of a claim, the extra vote must be a scum ability. And if so, it would make sense that scum killed Brick, and so on. Implicitly, I was saying that a town double voter should claim, which I am glad he did. (Though it's obviously not certain that he is town.)

In the other game that I keep referencing, I also urged the town double voter to claim, but he didn't, and got himself lynched (not by my vote).

Zak, if I had that ability, then I wouldn't want to claim it either, let the wolves worry about who carried that extra power and how it would affect there plans. The wolves go into each game knowing an awful lot of info. The more you can keep from them the better imo

[Jkaen]

Ok, so the case on coco from what I understand if a policy lynch, then added on to people trawling his posts and reviewing them with observational bias. Unless I missed a case here I cannot get on board with that.

Would be interested in Novice's role made him so keen to know about Rowains name claim, or if it was unrelated.

Lewwyn I feel came out of yesterday looking quite villager like, and to my surprise given the posts I quoted back for looking suspicious, I feel that I have disagreed with far too much zakalwe has posted this game.

I have also disagreed greatly with Rowain, but I expect to do that