[SPOILERS] Serdoa plays in PBEM46

[Serdoa]

First post

[BRickAstley]

Here's your starting tiles, consider these to be your definite setup.

[Serdoa]

Ok, well I've got the save, but that will take some time to play I think. I haven't actually started microing this start at all, as WW17 + being ill took all my time and energy till now.

First question is where to move my scout? I don't see any tile qualifiying as a 3-hammer-tile to get my EXP-bonus. Means I certainly want to plant my city this turn, as losing a turn AND not getting the EXP-bonus doesn't make sense with a generally good (but not great due to my starting techs) start like this. There are only 4 potential tiles to move to in that case. 1W, 1S, 1E, 1NE. West and South both would lose the Wheat, so thats not really an option. Leaves NE and E. NE will lose the furs, also not really an option. Means the only other tile I would consider settling is 1E.

Ok, so therefore Scout needs to move generally eastwards. Question is now, is he moving 1NE or 1E first. Neither move will show me any new tiles. But if I move 1E I can then move 1SE, giving me vision over the lake there as well. I sat here now for 2,5 hours (with lunch in between) and I don't see any other move giving me more vision or making more sense. So, lets do that.

[Serdoa]

Thats interesting.

Ok, so I have microed a bit and I can NOT get AH in time if I settle in place to improve the sheep. In fact I would need to wait 2 turns before I could improve it. I could theoretically build a road in that time, but ... not really. So moving 1E wouldn't change anything in regards to the wheat-improvement-timing. But I wonder if I could start a turn with a worker, switch to a warrior on T1, working a 2/1/0, borders pop eot, I start working the sheep for 4 turns and grow. Then 6 turns of a 1/2/0 + the 2/1/1 pig and the worker would finish EOT11. AH finishes the same turn and I can go ahead and improve the pig.

Not sure if that is worth it though. Worker is 2 turns later out than with worker first but I am at size 2 for 3 turns more. Also I would get the pig improved (5/1/1) on T15 instead of the wheat (5/0/0) on T14. I'll go micro that out now.

[Serdoa]

Microing around I can have 2 workers, 1 warrior, 1 settler by T24 without any chops or whips. Seems good enough for me. So I moved 1E and settled.

[Serdoa]

The world as we know it.

[NobleHelium]

Is that Starcraft's Char, or some other?

[Serdoa]

Yeah, thats it. I'm not sure if I will keep the theme though. But mostly because I always forget to rename my stuff, so sooner or later it kinda disappears.

[Serdoa]

I wanted to do an opponent analysis since this game started, but apart from not having time, I also was unsure what to say. 4 players, no bans... the chance for something interesting to happen in the pick was very low to begin with. And what did we get?

FIN/EXP - Inca
FIN/CRE - Mongolia
FIN/SPI - India
And myself, EXP/CRE - Byzantine

Well, does someone notice a pattern? Yeah, everyone picked FIN. Well, except me, but that wasn't because I didn't have the chance for a FIN-leader, but I decided not to choose one. That puts me at a disadvantage already as FIN will certainly be important with only 4 players and no TT.

Also interesting, the first 2 players to pick after India choose to pick leader (makes sense) and both picked a CRE-leader. I wonder what Azza would have picked if I had gone for Willem? I think he would have taken Sury. Anyhow, apart from that, everything remained expected (Pacal of Inca...) till Azza picked again and choose the Mongols. Choosing Mongolia has only one reason: to harass / kill someone with Keshiks. There is no other reason even remotely to consider.

What does that mean for me? I will have to be prepared and get some scouting warriors out to the edges of my territory. I have played Mongolia myself in PBEM14 so I hope I'll have a slight edge above the others when it comes to defending against them. I certainly do have the benefit of borders popping quickly in new cities, making them much less vulnerable. But I also have a higher chance to be the target of them because it isn't enough for Azza to kill someone with them. He either needs to kill all 3 of us (not very likely) or he needs to kill at least the one who seems to be the biggest threat and get something out of it. And I expect Azza to consider me the biggest threat (because when we know nothing or only a little bit about new players we consider them at best middle-ground).

But I think attacking at all will be futile for him. The thing is, keeping cities won't be possible because they will be horrendously expensive. He has to raze them and just take the money. Thats a nice bonus, but realistically he will have to produce several Keshiks to win with them. Yes, they are 6 str, but a fortified spear in a city with popped borders will still be 10 str. He can get 2 promotions on them, making them either 8.1 str (C1, S1) or giving them 50% withdrawl. I would take the second one but with 3 spears you still have a good defending chance against 6-8 of them I think. And I get 3 spears for the costs of 2 Keshiks. And thats the biggest issue. He might win a war with those. But if the one defending is not giving up easily he will lose quite a bit and will have fallen back considerably. And more probable is that they get into a stalemate and both fall back (see PBEM14 Lewwyn and me). You can outmaneuver the other one with them, but that is only true if the other one has a bad (or no) road network.

Anyhow, my third city will get copper, so I will be producing spears soon. I hope I'll meet Azza early enough that I can show him I have some... but realistically he should expect them anyway. As of now (T22) he is researching BW and should have 71 beakers in it. That means at least another 2 turns till he finishes it and then another 10-12 turns till he could finish HBR. Earliest T35 that he has HBR. Another 6 turns to produce something (at least 1 whip cycle) + moving them to an opponent (~5-7 turns) gives an attack date of earliest ~T45. Means I have around 20 turns to produce some spears. IF he gets HBR at all. I should be able to figure that out via C&D.

[Serdoa]

I'd like to give an update on what everyone was up to, as we have reached T20, what for me is the first point in the game (on Quick) which gives an indication about what is going on and who might be planning what. As a warning, most of what I write here can probably be read in the threads of my opponents without all the guessing I do. Of course on the positive side, you'll have all data of the game in one spot and can easier make comparisons. Lets start with the overview of what everyone has built and teched up to now:

The Human Hydra

Techs: Myst (44), Agri (52), Mining (44), BW (105), AH (88), Fishing (34, ?) = 367 total beakers
Builds: Worker -> Warrior -> Settler (? with chop -> EOT 23)
Players met: Azza, Serdoa
Cities: Capital (3 pop)

Azza

Techs: Hunting (34), The Wheel (52), Agri (52), AH (88), Pottery(70), Mining (44) = 340 total beakers
Builds: Worker -> Warrior -> Settler (? -> EOT 26)
Players met: THH, Old Harry
Cities: Capital (3 pop)

Old Harry

Techs: Myst (44), Mining (44), Agri (52), BW (105), Hunting (34), AH (88) = 367 total beakers
Builds: Worker -> Worker (till 10fh) -> Warrior (till 3h) -> Worker (w. chop a. whip) -> Settler (w. 2 chops, finished EOT21)
Players met: Azza
Cities: Capital (1 pop)

Serdoa

Techs: Myst (44), The Wheel (52), Agri (52), AH (88), Mining (44), BW (105) = 385 total beakers
Builds: Warrior (till 6h) -> Worker -> Warrior -> Worker -> Settler (with chop, finishes EOT24)
Players met: THH
Cities: Capital (3 pop)


I think thats all what is interesting right now. What can be deduced is that Azza has a very good GNP but from all I can see he should be pretty late with his first settler. Old Harry in comparison should have the earliest first settler and is the only one (besides me) with 2 workers, but does have only 1 pop right now. He invested pretty heavily in getting where he is right now and if all my guesswork is correct I would put him in last place right now, despite being the first to city 2 (well, he should be, depends where he settles of course, but I expect him to show up with a new city EOT24 latest).

I'm not sure what else can be deduced from this. For the beaker numbers, they should be accurate for everyone except Azza as we all finished a tech EOT22 (well, Old Harry EOT21, but he plays after me so I only see it on my T22). For Azza you'd have to add ~60 beakers to get to the real value. That puts him in front, but only by 15 beakers.