(November 19th, 2012, 03:46)Rowain Wrote: Hey Lewwyn didn't you see? I made a joke and used a smile up there won't you jump on that and build it in your theory?
Very helpful Rowain
I know, I know but did you read my bigger post what do you say to that (besides the borked quote).
(November 19th, 2012, 03:48)zakalwe Wrote: And a No Lynch is clearly a terrible idea at this point.
Thats true and you can bet I'll change it before deadline. It was a sign that currently I have not decided whom I really wanted to lynch. Especially as I expected far more reaction to my selfvote than I got.
Actually, having cooled my head a little and looked at Rowain's recent post with the borked quote, I'm going to backpedal a little.
The way I see it right now, TT is in fact a slightly better lynch than Rowain. It's still possible that Rowain's attempted vote for Bigger was coincidence. But Serdoa's last minute vote, going against the town-cred-defense he had already set up, combined with Serdoa supporting the decision to accept Rowain's vote, combined with Uber considering a draw, is all very damning for TT.
So I would prefer TT over Rowain, even though I view both as good lynches.
(November 19th, 2012, 04:33)Jkaen Wrote: Why innocent on Sareln?
Just a feeling I get from his posts. Thats nothing I can put a clear sign to it. It's lesser than for you or pindi but stronger than for the rest.
As for coco and TT there is little (or nothing) new from them to analyze so of course there are no real new insights in my posts.
About Lewwyn: Today he is different than the first 2 days. He gives far more the impression of trying to hunt scum now. But the first part of day 2 contained more BS from him than the other games combined.
About zak: As said he reminds me of his WW7 game where he ws generally aknowledged as a wolf, had a huge He is a wolf chant happening in the lurker-thread was cheered tothe gallows on day 3 and turned out to be a villager. If this is really a 2-traitor-groups setup we have a good chance to get rid of the zak-problem anyway.
Sigh, once I saw Ichabod go down on the first night I knew it would come back to this one day. This village seems to like going over old arguments over and over without coming up with many (if any) new ones.
Do you really think that it could be this 'obvious'? That if I was a wolf, I wouldn't know exactly what the vote was so that I could be told who to vote for to properly preserve myself? And that they would go so clearly to swap on to others to save me when it would clearly set me up along the way?
There were three villagers up on the block on Day One and the wolves knew it and could make things look as incriminating as they like. Bigger goes down, all those who went for him would look bad and suspicion would be cast on the survivor(s). If Brick went down, suspicion falls on 4 people of which one was a double voter and that he was so surprisingly left on the block at the end suggests that someone might have been watching the vote to know that he would still be left up there given the way other votes fell. If I go down, then the people pushing me get under suspicion for their late swing to me and Bigger looks bad.
They got that massive gift on Day One and have been making sure to play it when they can. Its why suspicion of me isn't going to go away because of a jumpy village being played by calculating wolves in Day One.
Lewwyn is chief scum-hunter number one right now and I do trust his judgement and nose for these things. I don't like Zak's play but it does seem slightly more familiar than he has been before. Probably just because he's suspecting me which is pretty much a given in nearly every game we play. I do think there is an experienced wolf pulling the strings somewhere and right now zak seems to be the strongest candidate for it, given that a significant move has pretty much reappeared just as people start getting nervous on coco being so easy to put up.
I am sticking with my coco vote though. I think it will overshadow things each day until it is resolved and if he is possibly a wolf then we shouldn't risk leaving him alive in the hope of a mod-kill to do it for us. I think Serdoa's pushing of alternative candidates yesterday suggests that coco could be a wolf who was just being kept alive as long as possible before they had no option but to bus him for silence. If he were innocent, I think he would have been left to die quite easily unless for some reason they were aware of Mattimeo's role and thought they would try and kill a more powerful innocent instead.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
(November 19th, 2012, 06:08)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: There were three villagers up on the block on Day One and the wolves knew it and could make things look as incriminating as they like. Bigger goes down, all those who went for him would look bad and suspicion would be cast on the survivor(s). If Brick went down, suspicion falls on 4 people of which one was a double voter and that he was so surprisingly left on the block at the end suggests that someone might have been watching the vote to know that he would still be left up there given the way other votes fell. If I go down, then the people pushing me get under suspicion for their late swing to me and Bigger looks bad.
What exactly are you saying here? Why did Serdoa switch to Bigger, after defending him earlier? Was it to incriminate the Bigger voters, including himself? And are you saying that the scum knew about the double vote?
The votes moved very fast towards the end of day 1. You argue as if the scum team was on voice chat, with perfect coordination. I don't think that's the case. You looked pretty safe just a few minutes before the lynch, but then there was a sudden rush of votes on you, and Serdoa reacted to this by voting for Bigger. If you were innocent, I think he would have just stayed put.
Besides, there may be two scum teams, with 2-3 people each. If it's just you, Serdoa, and maybe one more on your team, there's no reason to suppose you would have such perfect influence over the lynch.
(November 19th, 2012, 06:08)Twinkletoes89 Wrote: That if I was a wolf, I wouldn't know exactly what the vote was so that I could be told who to vote for to properly preserve myself?
You are experienced enough not to need to be told where to vote to save yourself
Quote:There were three villagers up on the block on Day One
You have to argue that obviously, but having 2 villagers up is just as likely
Quote:I don't like Zak's play but it does seem slightly more familiar than he has been before.
I dont understand this, how can he be playing more familiar than how he normally plays?
Quote:Probably just because he's suspecting me which is pretty much a given in nearly every game we play. I do think there is an experienced wolf pulling the strings somewhere and right now zak seems to be the strongest candidate for it, given that a significant move has pretty much reappeared just as people start getting nervous on coco being so easy to put up.
But zak was voting for coco, and pushing for him earlier in the day, if zak is the experienced wolf pushing things, how does coco also be a wolf being put up by zak?
Quote:I am sticking with my coco vote though. I think it will overshadow things each day until it is resolved and if he is possibly a wolf then we shouldn't risk leaving him alive in the hope of a mod-kill to do it for us. I think Serdoa's pushing of alternative candidates yesterday suggests that coco could be a wolf who was just being kept alive as long as possible before they had no option but to bus him for silence. If he were innocent, I think he would have been left to die quite easily unless for some reason they were aware of Mattimeo's role and thought they would try and kill a more powerful innocent instead.
Serdoa pushed a villager succesfully yesterday, and why leave him to die easily if he is going to do that very thing later in the game anyway?
